Ichiro hitting exploits

[JiriHrdina]

Anyone paying attention to baseball will know that since the all-star break Ichiro has been just sick. He's hitting well over .400 since then and is taking a run at the all-time season record for hits in one season.

However, what I've not heard much about is whether or not he could take a run at .400 so I crunched some numbers.

After tonight he's hitting .374: 217 hits in 580 ABs.

29 games left at an average of 4.5 ABs (he's lead off). 130 ABs left.

So by my calculations in order to be hitting .400 he needs to get 67 hits in those 130 ABs or hit .515.

Pretty unreal number I know but I think he's been hitting around this for the last month.

Is this possible? It would be thrilling to see him at least take a run at it.

[Jiggy_12]

It'll be tough. Its really too bad he got off to such a slow start this season (by his standards) otherwise this would be a very distinct possibility. It's a longshot, but it's about all he has to play for right now.

[JiriHrdina]

One of the reasons I think its possible is that any ground ball to the left side of the infield has a real possibility of being a hit. Dude is so fast down the line.

[Jiggy_12]

Yeah, and his running swing doesnt hurt either. You may be curious to look at the stats on mlb.com and check out the ground ball to fly ball ratio, Ichiro's is heads and tails above everyone else.

Edit: Not ahead of everyone else, but if you sort the stats by number of atbats, Ichiro's GO/AO ratio is almost double everyone else in the top 100.

[Resolute 14]

The best argument in Suzuki's favor for this is that he is such a mediocre power hitter that not many teams are going to intentionally walk him. Suzuki is so one dimentional that chances are, the only thing he is going to do is hit a single, so who cares if you give up the base hit instead of walking him intentionally?

[JiriHrdina]

A five for five night this evening (5 singles) puts Ichiro at .379. Definately in striking distance of .400 if he can remain hot.

[evman150]

I think the all time record for most hits in a season is within striking distance as well. Not sure about the exact number, but I think it's around 260.

Too bad the M's suck so bad.

[sbailey924]

Yeah, if he gets anywhere close to .400, he will have broken the record for hits in a season. I think he has about 30 more for that record, which is actually much older than William's .400.

[Ottoman Empire]

Originally posted by evman150@Sep 5 2004, 02:08 AM
I think the all time record for most hits in a season is within striking distance as well. Not sure about the exact number, but I think it's around 260.

Too bad the M's suck so bad.

Yep, it's 257 so I believe he can make it. the .400 though? I'd be surprised, hitting over .500 from here on in is a stretch, especially since he's been doing it for a couple weeks now, he's bound to slow just on a purely statistical basis. Then again, who knows?

[Displaced Flames fan]

I remember when George Brett was flirting with .400 back when baseball was fun to watch for me. I think his .390 is still the best since Ted.

[Sylvanfan]

Well theres no doubt that Ichiro will get a chance to see some pitches to hit because walking him is just as bad as letting him hit. If he pushes his average to .385 by the end of next week than who knows how high he can go. At the least it should be something for baseball fans to keep check on.

[evman150]

Originally posted by Displaced Flames fan@Sep 5 2004, 08:21 AM
I remember when George Brett was flirting with .400 back when baseball was fun to watch for me. I think his .390 is still the best since Ted.

Didn't Tony Gwynn rip it up at around .395 in 1994? Maybe I'm totally off on that, but I seem to remember it. I used to be an absolute baseball fanatic, I knew everything about the sport, the teams and the players. Now I don't really give a sh*t at all.

[evman150]

Just realized I could look it up, and yes, Gwynn hit .394 in '94.

Funny I can remember a guy's average from ten years ago and now I couldn't even tell you who most teams' ace is.

[Fuzzy McGillicuddy]

If Ichiro continues to produce hits at the pace he's done all season, he'll break George Sisler's record by about 10 hits.

Ichiro has been absolutely torrid for the past 2+ months. He hit .432 in July, .463 in August, and so far a staggering .560 during the first week of September.

He may face some pretty decent pitching for the remainder of the season. Almost all of the teams the Mariners face are in a divisional/wildcard race.

[moon]

One of the problems that Ichiro has is that he rarely walks and therefore swings at pitches that are not strikes causing him to get outs in some of these ABs. If he were willing to walk more I think that he would have a chance to hit .400.

[Jiggy_12]

Originally posted by moon@Sep 8 2004, 12:10 PM
One of the problems that Ichiro has is that he rarely walks and therefore swings at pitches that are not strikes causing him to get outs in some of these ABs. If he were willing to walk more I think that he would have a chance to hit .400.

With how few at-bats he has left, he doesnt have the percentage room to take walks. He needs to get as many hits as he can, a higher on base percentage wouldn't help.

[moon]

I was talking about his hitting style in general.

Now he should be swinging at everything and busting his a$$ to get down to first but over a full season I think he should think about trying to walk more to cut down on bad outs.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally posted by moon@Sep 8 2004, 06:53 PM
I was talking about his hitting style in general.

Now he should be swinging at everything and busting his a$$ to get down to first but over a full season I think he should think about trying to walk more to cut down on bad outs.

How many strikeouts does Ichiro have? Vladimir Guerrero swings at lot's of bad pitches and doesn't walk much, still he seldomly strikes out and that makes him so hard to pitch to. I think for guy's like Ichiro and Vladdy who can hit bad pitches and put them in play, it helps them because both can run, and it's part of the psychological war they play with pitchers. Still if Ichiro was like Barry Bonds and would only swing at strikes and demonstrated to pitchers that he would take a walk 250 times a year he'd likely see better pitches to hit as walking the leadoff hitter with speed is far worse than walking Bonds with guys already on base. Still I don't know if seeing better pitches would really benefit a guy like Ichiro who isn't a power hitter. In his case putting the ball in play, and putting pressure on the defence is his strategy as opposed to hitting the ball hard every time.