Where would the Flames be this season without Wolf?

[Mathgod]

Since this is a topic of ongoing discussion, I thought I'd comb through the season and figure out how many games Dustin Wolf played a crucial role for this team picking up wins (or at least points) over the course of the season.

For this list, I've included all games that meet the following criteria:

• Wolf played, and was at least very good (in most cases excellent), and
  
• The Flames either won the game by one goal (not counting empty netters), or lost in OT/SO.

The idea being, if the Flames let in one additional goal in each of these games, they would likely lose at least one point in each case. For sake of simplicity, I'm ignoring certain considerations such as what if they made up for that extra goal by scoring an extra one of theirs, or what if they let in more than one extra goal.

Without further ado, here's the list.

Oct 15 vs Chicago
Oct 22 vs Pittsburgh
Nov 5 vs Montreal
Nov 11 vs LA
Nov 15 vs Nashville
Nov 19 vs NYI
Nov 21 vs NYR
Dec 28 vs SJ
Dec 31 vs Van
Jan 7 vs Anaheim
Jan 11 vs LA
Jan 18 vs Winnipeg
Jan 23 vs Buffalo
Feb 23 vs SJ
Mar 2 vs Carolina
Mar 8 vs Montreal
Mar 12 vs Van

We'd have 17 fewer points. So those of us saying that this team would be in the mix for a top 5 pick (or at least a guaranteed top 10 pick) if they had average goaltending all season long, do have a pretty strong case.

You could argue that hey, the Flames would have battled back in some of those games. I'd argue that this is an offensively challenged team, and wouldn't have got the extra goal back in most cases. And then you consider that sometimes they'd give up more than one extra goal, turning 2 points into 0 points. In the end, maybe the real number isn't 17, but it would be close to it.

Edit: real number should have been 11. Sorry for the confusion.

[getbak]

[PepsiFree]

It’s not only not a strong argument, it’s an outright terrible argument.

That’s not how goaltending works. It would not be close to 17 lol.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Impossible to say. We don’t know how other goaltenders would perform in his place. It’s also hard to predict how the team would perform in front of a different goaltender.

Based on a scenario where wolf gets hurt early in the season and is out for most of the year, I would say 5 to 10 points lower.

[Inferno]

The only flaw with that logic is that's 17 fewer points assuming they wouldn't get the same result with Vladar who has managed to beat some really good teams himself.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Inferno

The only flaw with that logic is that's 17 fewer points assuming they wouldn't get the same result with Vladar who has managed to beat some really good teams himself.

Some nights maybe, but most nights I doubt it. Wolf was outstanding in most of those listed games, and made ten bellers that Vladar usually doesn't make.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Inferno

The only flaw with that logic is that's 17 fewer points assuming they wouldn't get the same result with Vladar who has managed to beat some really good teams himself.

There are so many unknowns. Would Vladar thrive if given a more conistent schedule, or would he fold? Would whoever the back-up is, likely Cooley, steal a few games? Would the strategy change if goaltending wasn't the center of gravity? If the team found themselves out of playoff contention really early in the season, would their playstyle and tenacity be different (likely a downward spiral)? Would Conroy have been a seller at the deadline causing the team to get fewer wins down the stretch?

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Some nights sure, but most nights I doubt it. Wolf was outstanding in most of those listed games, and made ten bellers that Vladar usually wouldn't have made.

There isn't very many good teams in the list you've provided. I would have liked their chances even with Vladar most of those games.

[Goriders]

A little bit of cherry picking. You could ask the same thing about Kadri.

I’d look at it more as we have Wolf. How do we build around him?

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by getbak

[getbak]

Nope. Read the trade conditions again.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Some nights maybe, but most nights I doubt it. Wolf was outstanding in most of those listed games, and made ten bellers that Vladar usually doesn't make.

Vladar has put above a sv% .920 or higher in 39% of his games.

Wolf has done it in 44% of his.

So you can reasonably expect that Vladar would have met the “very good or excellent” threshold for about 2-3 less periods than Wolf over the bizarre stretch you cherry picked.

[Jason14h]

No player is worth 17 points by themselves

This is a few years old (maybe there’s a newer one ) and 7 player in the nhl contributed a WAR above 5 (so 10 pts)

https://hockey-graphs.com/category/war/

So we’re probably realistically talking 6-10 points depending who the replacement goalie is

[FireGilbert]

According to Money Puck Wolf has a WAR of 2.05 so that’s 4 extra points.

Wolf has been awesome but so has the team defence. Where would they be without Weegar, who is somehow a +13 with 41 points while attached to AHL calibre partners all season

[Burning Beard]

It is what it is. Plans change (much to the chagrin of many fans it seems) and Conroy has been adjusting. Not the best time for an elite goalie to emerge without much run support but also the team could be in a worse situation.

[Groot]

This is an absurdly-biased attempt at "analysis". Here you go. This doesn't even improve this weird attempt to discredit everyone on the team but Wolf, but at least it provides a bit more perspective. Listed next to each game is Flames Deserve to Win, all stats from Moneypuck.com.

Oct 15 vs Chicago - 53.8%
Oct 22 vs Pittsburgh - 46.% (L)
Nov 5 vs Montreal - 45.5% (L)
Nov 11 vs LA - 56.2%
Nov 15 vs Nashville - 49.1% (L?)
Nov 19 vs NYI - 72.4%
Nov 21 vs NYR - 71.9%
Dec 28 vs SJ - 75.1%
Dec 31 vs Van - 56.4%
Jan 7 vs Anaheim - 64.9%
Jan 11 vs LA - 64.4%
Jan 18 vs Winnipeg - 11.9% (L)
Jan 23 vs Buffalo - 43.1% (L)
Feb 23 vs SJ - 63.2%
Mar 2 vs Carolina - Flames lost
Mar 8 vs Montreal - 37.2% (L)
Mar 12 vs Van - Flames lost

So from your list you have 2 games where Wolf clearly carried the team to a Win. 4 gained points, 2 gained points if it was one more goal scored and went to OT.

Then another 3-4 games where the other team outplayed the Flames yet Flames still won, happens all the time. Hard to attribute it specifically to Wolf. How many games did the Flames outplay an opponent and lose? Both of the last two games.

How many lost points offset the other "unearned" points? Likely a wash. Then apparently 2 games that Flames lost but never should have gone to OT I guess so that's 2 more points.

2-6 points gained is probably realistic. 17 is absurd.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by getbak

Nope. Read the trade conditions again.

I know, I was setting a trap.

[dino7c]

Lol, is OP assuming they would have no goalie playing?

Its 4-6 points above an average NHLer...who would also "steal" points from time to time.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Since this is a topic of ongoing discussion, I thought I'd comb through the season and figure out how many games Dustin Wolf played a crucial role for this team picking up wins (or at least points) over the course of the season.


We'd have 17 fewer points.

Username does not check out

[Rhett44]

Bottom 5 in the league for sure. Probably bottom 3.

Assuming we replace him with an average goalie.