Can the Flames become a contender without tanking?

[Hackey]

I wanted to see the approximate probability of landing a franchise player without tanking. A large percentage of the board feels like the Flames need to tank to get a couple superstars and another large percentage feel like you can find franchise players throughout the draft.

Deciding who classifies as a franchise player is subjective but I put together a quick list. If I missed someone obvious apologies ahead of time because I did this pretty quick. Even if you add in a few extra guys I feel the percentages are likely still very similar.

I skipped the last 5 drafts because I figure players take time to develop so those years might skew the results. I looked at the 20 year span from 1999-2019

2019: Jack Hughes (1)
2018: Quinn Hughes (7), Brady Tkachuk (4), Rasmus Dahlin (1)
2017: Cale Makar (4), Elias Petterson (5), Nico Hischier (1), Jason Robertson (39)
2016: Auston Matthews (1), Matthew Tkachuk (6)
2015: Connor McDavid (1), Mikko Rantanen (10), Kirill Kaprizov (135), Jack Eichel (2), Mitch Marner (4), Sebastian Aho (35), Kyle Connor (17)
2014: Leon Draisaitl (3), David Pastrnak (25), Brayden Point (79), Sam Reinhart (2), William Nylander (8)
2013: Nathan Mackinnon (1), Alexander Barkov (2)
2012: None
2011: Nikita Kucherov (58), Gabriel Landeskog (2), JT Miller (15)
2010: Mark Stone (178), Evgeny Kuznetsov (26), Tyler Seguin (2)
2009: John Tavares (1), Victor Hedman (2)
2008: Steven Stamkos (1), Roman Josi (38), Drew Doughty (2), Alex Pietrangelo (4), Erik Karlsson (15), John Carlson (27)
2007: Patrick Kane (1), Jamie Benn (129)
2006: Jonathon Towes (3), Nicklas Backstrom (4), Claude Giroux (22), Phil Kessel (5), Brad Marchand (71)
2005: Sidney Crosby (1), Anze Kopitar (11)
2004: Alex Ovechkin (1), Evgeni Malkin (2)
2003: Shea Weber (49), Eric Stall (2), Patrice Bergeron (45), Ryan Getzlaf (19), Corey Perry (28), Joe Pavelski (205)
2002: Rick Nash (1), Duncan Keith (54),
2001: Jason Spezza (2), Ilya Kovalchuk (1)
2000: Marina Gaborik (3), Dany Heatley (2)
1999: Daniel Sedin (2), Henrik Sedin (3), Henrik Zetterberg (210)


Top 5 pick: 36 players out of 100 picks = 36%
6-10 pick: 4/100 = 4%
11-31 pick: 10/420 = 2.38%
2nd round pick: 7/620 = 1.13%
3rd round pick: 3/620 = 0.48%
Beyond the 3rd round: 5/2640 = 0.19%

[dino7c]

really we need another of these threads?

[Flamesfan05]

No but they need to get lucky and find their own Kucherov and Braden Point over multiple drafts

[Jay Random]

If you're counting Matthew Tkachuk at 6, I don't see how you can leave out Johnny Gaudreau at 104.

[Goriders]

Per the previous thread the three most impactful Flames I have seen in the 20 some odd years I have followed them closely are:

Guadreau drafted by Flames 4th round 104th overall
Iginla acquired via trade originally drafted 1st round 11th overall
Kiprusoff aquired via trade originally drafted 5th round 116th overall

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Per the previous thread the three most impactful Flames I have seen in the 20 some odd years I have followed them closely are:

Guadreau drafted by Flames 4th round 104th overall
Iginla acquired via trade originally drafted 1st round 11th overall
Kiprusoff aquired via trade originally drafted 5th round 116th overall

Nieuwendyk drafted 27th overall

[gvitaly]

It's highly unlikely.

The Flames are a team that's already at a disadvantage. They need to overpay to both sign their players and get UFAs to come here; meanwhile, most players have them on their NTCs. That's why in order to become a cup contender they need to become one of the best draft and development teams in the NHL. It's much more difficult without getting several top draft picks.

[Rhett44]

No, they can't contend without tanking first. Which is why many of us want them to tank. Which they clearly aren't going to this year lol.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

No, they can't contend without tanking first. Which is why many of us want them to tank. Which they clearly aren't going to this year lol.

They did everything necessary to tank. They gutted the defence, traded away the starting goalie, stripped their depth at centre, and came back with a roster just above the salary floor. It is certainly not management's fault that the players have been winning games.

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

They did everything necessary to tank. They gutted the defence, traded away the starting goalie, stripped their depth at centre, and came back with a roster just above the salary floor. It is certainly not management's fault that the players have been winning games.

I'm not blaming management. I'm just saying they aren't tanking based on what I have seen. We are closer to a playoff spot than last place.

[gvitaly]

Players I think you've missed:
2019:
HM: Seider(6), Boldy(12), Caufield(15), Harley(18), Wolf(214)
2018: Svechnikov(2), Bouchard(10), Dobson(12), Marchenko(49).
2017: Heiskanen(2), Necas(12)
HM: Suzuki(13), Oettinger(26), Swayman(111), Batherson(121)
2016: Keller(7), McAvoy(14), Thompson(26), Fox(66), Bratt(162)
HM: Laine(2), Sergachev(9), Chychrun(16), Kyrou(35), DeBrincat(39)
2015: K. Connor(17)
HM: Hintz(49), Strome(3), Werenski(8), Barzal(16), Konecny(24), Terry(148)
2014: Ekblad(1), Demko(36), Toews(108), Shesterkin(118),
HM: Fiala(11), Larkin(15), Tuch(18), Montour(55), Sorokin(78), Forsling(126)

I'll stop here. As you mentioned, what makes a franchise player is subjective, but a lot of D and G get ignored because they don't put up points. Moreover, even the 2018, and 2019 drafts will have players breakout and become stars, like Marchenko and Wolf this year.

Finally, there's still a lot of quality top-pair, all-star quality players that might not fit the definition of a franchise player. They can certainly be found later in the draft.

[boogerz]

Considering that the Blues won in 2018-19 and the Flames were a contender in 2021-22 without needing to draft 1OA, it is possible to become a contender without full-on tanking. You need some luck and not to screw up major decisions (e.g. Treliving's awful coaching hires).

If the Flames can repeat the most recent draft, they should be have some foundational pieces (e.g. repeat of the 2015-16 drafts) without needing to bottom-out like the Sabres, Hawks, or Sharks did.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Yes.

Anything is possible as long as you keep the Calgary Flames number one in your heart.

[NewFan]

In my opinion, if you want to build a contender that can compete many years you need elite talents who will stay with the team long time, who can make other players to become better and who can attract other players, and who can help sell tickets and franchise goods.
So team needs good scouts, good trainers, smart management and some luck.
For me, the current team is not good enough to compete POs, with a few very good prospects who can become good but support players. And the team locates in smaller market.
Therefore drafting very high very help the team to find that elusive franchise players and develop them with our young prospects to build a good group of guys to play together to reach their ultimate goal.
But for NY, LV or Toronto they can build a team through trade, UFA as so they really don't need to tank.

[edslunch]

I don’t know about deliberately tanking, but they need an unlucky or injury-prone year to get a high pick. The year MT was picked was not supposed to be a high pick.

[jayswin]

The short answer is they could contend without some high-end picks, but it would be incredibly difficult. You'd need to unearth 2 - 3 more elit, star players in spots where it's statistically hard to draft them.

[TheKiprusoffResurrection]

As things currently stand, not likely, per the reasons given above.

I mean, a playoff contender? Of course. A playoff contender that has a miracle run ala 2004? Possible if Wolf keeps improving, but still unlikely.

But, building a perennial cup contender seems very unlikely, unless the league puts a stop to the rampant NTC/NMC nonsense in the next CBA. Not sure that happens, though.

[The Cobra]

The NTC/NMC will never end, as the players want (and should have) protection from being traded where they do not want to go. This is not just a business decision, but players don't want to have their families unrooted without their consent.

In any event, if it didn't exist, players who were traded to teams they did not want to play for would simply ask for a trade. I doubt many teams would want players playing for them that did not want to be there.

Calgary could become a contender without tanking, any team could. But without high draft picks, it's hard (although not impossible) to obtain premium, elite players.

Add in the fact that Calgary is in Canada and not a UFA destination, and the odds become even longer.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by TheKiprusoffResurrection

As things currently stand, not likely, per the reasons given above.

I mean, a playoff contender? Of course. A playoff contender that has a miracle run ala 2004? Possible if Wolf keeps improving, but still unlikely.

But, building a perennial cup contender seems very unlikely, unless the league puts a stop to the rampant NTC/NMC nonsense in the next CBA. Not sure that happens, though.

Agree. It's possible to be a contender for a season or two. But it seems unlikely that the team can be a contender for 5+ years (and this is often what is necessary to win cups).

The team's performance in the past 30 years is evidence of this.

[Bonded]

Flames will need a lot of depth and a ROR level centre to win a cup assuming Wolf can drag the team like Binnington if they don't pick high. It is a tough way to win a cup.