Assad's regime has fallen. What's next for Syria?

[sureLoss]

thinks this deserves its own thread as it appears rebels are approaching Damascus after taking Aleppo and Homs.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t

The mood in Damascus appears to be one of confusion and fear, with many people unable to find out exactly what is going on as rebel factions approach ever closer.

In several suburbs, symbols of the power of the Assad dynasty have been torn down or toppled. The interior ministry says it's creating a ring of steel around the capital.

But government forces have notably failed to provide any such defence in cities, towns and villages that have fallen to rebel factions across the country.

Rumours are swirling over the whereabouts of President al-Assad, with people logging flights in and out of Damascus to work out whether he might have left.

His office has denied all such reports, saying he's still at work in Damascus, but there's been no sign of him.

[Blaster86]

I was reading something about a lot of Russian assets being trapped and unable to escape.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

I was reading something about a lot of Russian assets being trapped and unable to escape.

That's a real bummer

[Street Pharmacist]

Not that Putin left much there, but more assets to send to Ukraine isn't great for Ukraine.

For Russia, they're going to lose their only port on the Mediterranean and will lose a lot of control of middle East. The lack of support will also hurt their mercenary business I'm certain. This is terrible for Russia.

As for Syria, Assad is undeniably evil, but I don't know enough of the rebels to know whether this is entirely good news or not. Seems like the citizens are happy??

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Not that Putin left much there, but more assets to send to Ukraine isn't great for Ukraine.

For Russia, they're going to lose their only port on the Mediterranean and will lose a lot of control of middle East. The lack of support will also hurt their mercenary business I'm certain. This is terrible for Russia.

As for Syria, Assad is undeniably evil, but I don't know enough of the rebels to know whether this is entirely good news or not. Seems like the citizens are happy??

I would not be surprised to see Russia just switch sides and support whoever takes over. I don't think they supported Assad because they liked him or aligned with his ideology, it was just because he would work with them. They can probably make a similar deal with the rebels.

I wonder what happens to the Turkish controlled area. A part of this war not talked about is the utter destruction Turkish forces inflicted is some areas, particularly against the Kurds.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I would not be surprised to see Russia just switch sides and support whoever takes over. I don't think they supported Assad because they liked him or aligned with his ideology, it was just because he would work with them. They can probably make a similar deal with the rebels.

I don't think the rebels will say "it's ok you have killed us for the last while, we'll join up with you". Especially when Turkey is helping

[afc wimbledon]

Assad has apparently fled

[Playfair]

Unconfirmed reports rebels claiming to have overthrown President Assad

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

I don't think the rebels will say "it's ok you have killed us for the last while, we'll join up with you". Especially when Turkey is helping

It's not that uncommon for countries to switch sides in wars. It happened 4 times in WW2 for example. They only want to obtain and keep power. If making peace arrangements with Russia accomplishes that, they would probably do it.

[CaptainCrunch]

There's a report that the IL-76 carrying Assad has crashed or dissapeared.



The fear is we replace a murderous government with another one just as bad or worse.

[burn_this_city]

It took 12 years but the revolution finally prevailed. The speed of the collapse has been incredible, especially when you consider how firmly entrenched Assad and Russian forces seemed prior. Assads government was one of the most depraved in the last 30 years.

Hopefully this is a new beginning for the country, I'm optimistic it will turn out better than people might first expect. The HTS military wing announced they were turning control over to a civilian salvation council in Aleppo.

Russia losing the ability to defend Assad and project power in the Mediterranean is further evidence they have weakened dramatically. Their adventures with Wagner Afrikacorps may no longer be logistically feasible without this launching point.

Iran has been beaten badly by Israel and has now lost Syria, they have lost a lot of their proxies in the last year and years of incremental gains have disappeared.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

It took 12 years but the revolution finally prevailed. The speed of the collapse has been incredible, especially when you consider how firmly entrenched Assad and Russian forces seemed prior.

Hopefully this is a new beginning for the country, I'm optimistic it will turn out better than people might first expect. The HTS military wing announced they were turning control over to a civilian salvation council in Aleppo.

Russia losing the ability to defend Assad and project power in the Mediterranean is further evidence they have weakened dramatically. Their adventures with Wagner Afrikacorps may no longer be logistically feasible without this launching point.

Iran has been beaten badly by Israel and has now lost Syria, they have lost a lot of their proxies in the last year and years of incremental gains have disappeared.

The battle over the power vacuum is just beginning.



I agree with you Iran has to be feeling intensely vulnerable right now. They've lost their biggest proxy, Hezbollah has been savaged in Syria and in Lebanon. Hamas has been seriously degraded, and Iran has seen a successful armed rebellion take place next store. I expect that Iran will be cracking down on their people even harder.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Just thinking it would be very "convenient" if Assad's plane was "shot down."

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Just thinking it would be very "convenient" if Assad's plane was "shot down."

Kinda like the old Heart Attack in the Soviet Union.

[GullFoss]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1865504009047453841

People seem to think the Islamic rebels will begin raping and killing the Christians in Syria. Sad if true.

[fotze2]

It’s a Halalaucost.

[Itse]

I have some hope that the various rebel groups might be more motivated to end the fighting than fighting each other for power.

That said, the various backers of various rebel groups might not have similar interests...

Although neighouring countries might want to get rid of Syrian refugees.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

https://twitter.com/user/status/1865504009047453841

People seem to think the Islamic rebels will begin raping and killing the Christians in Syria. Sad if true.

Won’t their God protect them?

[transplant99]

nm

[afc wimbledon]

On an interesting sidenote this is now the end of Baathism after almost 80 year of it being a defining political movement and ideology in the Arab World, effectively Islam has finally killed Marxist based Socialism in the region