By the Numbers: Early Evaluation of the 2024 Draft

[1qqaaz]

In light of the fact that almost none of the prospects drafted this year seem to be playing in the World Juniors, I decided to evaluate their current production relative to last year's pace. Notably, the first three players taken are all showing regression. Everyone else is showing progression, though Misa and Jamieson are showing almost negligible offensive production.

Zayne Parekh
Last Year: 1.45 points per game
This year: 1.36 points per game
= -0.09 points per game

Matvei Gridin
Last year: 1.38 points per game in the USHL
This year: 1.16 points per game in the QMJHL
= -0.213 points per game
It should also be noted that the USHL has a stronger NHLe coefficient than does the QMJHL (OHL: 0.21, USHL: 0.18, WHL, 0.17, and QMJHL, 0.16). Accounting for this difference, the regression is even greater.

Andrew Basha
Last year: 1.35 points per game
This year: 1.18 points per game
= -0.17 points per game

Jacob Battaglia
Last year: 0.97 points per game
This year: 1.41 points per game
= +0.44 points per game

Henry Mews
Last year: 0.94 points per game
This year: 1.28 points per game
= +0.27 points per game

Kirill Zarubin
Last year: 0.902%
This year: 0.927%
= +0.025%

Trevor Hoskin
Last year: 1.92 points per game, NHLe of 14.2
This year: 0.98 points per game, NHL of 20.9
= NHLe improvement of 6.7

Luke Misa
Last year: 1.23 points per game
This year: 1.33 points per game
= +0.10 points per game

Hunter Laing
Last year: 0.39 points per game
This year: 0.63 points per game
= +0.24 points per game

Eric Jamieson
Last year: 0.48 points per game
This year: 0.50 points per game
= +0.02 points per game

For the record - I loved this draft. Many of the players had great point totals in their draft year. The Flames definitely picked for upside. Statistically speaking, if a prospect show little to no point progression in their D+1 year, their chances of becoming regular NHLers become exponentially lower.
However, the players with regression are also those taken in the first three picks. They have more of a cushion in terms of non-linear progression.

And of course, there is much more to hockey than points. Some players may be focusing on their defensive prowess or on other aspects of the game. For example, Etienne Morin seems to be improving his defensive side of the game, even though his point totals are similar to that of two seasons ago. It's also still quite early in the season. Hot streaks make a big difference. Parekh has been better of late. Basha has been injured. I recommend checking out Sandman's updates on the prospects boards.

Those showing the most progression are Battaglia, Mews, and Zarubin.
Those showing the most regression are Gridin, Basha, and Parekh.

[stemit14]

Can anyone speak to the quality of the teams that these players are on this year compared to last year? For example, I know Parekh’s team last year was a juggernaut… has that changed at all? Have some of the other top players on these teams aged out of junior?

I know that’s not necessarily a full account of any drop on production as the player is still expected to get better as he becomes an older player in the league.

It’s also tough for Parekh to follow up (production wise) a record setting year for a defenceman in the OHL.

[Reggie Dunlop]

We’re doomed.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Parekh is also on an upward trajectory from the first month of the season when he was generating at a worse clip, meaning he's closing that gap.

But the biggest thing for him wasn't offensive upside but being able to complement that with adequate play in his own end. That's probably his biggest hurdle to cracking the nhl as a regular. So a .09 difference is negligible and secondary.

I think Basha will be fine in spite of this. Looked excellent in training camp.

Gridin was always an iffy pick in the first round for me. But the picks made after him more than make up for it. I would imagine the adjustment to the Q has been rather huge. Different country and culture. I'd save evaluatons of potential for how he shows in the AHL.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

We’re doomed.

Thanked for hilarity

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Parekh is also on an upward trajectory from the first month of the season when he was generating at a worse clip, meaning he's closing that gap.

But the biggest thing for him wasn't offensive upside but being able to complement that with adequate play in his own end. That's probably his biggest hurdle to cracking the nhl as a regular. So a .09 difference is negligible and secondary.

I think Basha will be fine in spite of this. Looked excellent in training camp.

Gridin was always an iffy pick in the first round for me. But the picks made after him more than make up for it. I would imagine the adjustment to the Q has been rather huge. Different country and culture. I'd save evaluatons of potential for how he shows in the AHL.

Parekh has 15 points in his last 7 games. So if he can keep this up, he could still surpass last year's totals, which is not something that is easy to do.

[Roof-Daddy]

FWIW Basha has apparently been dealing with a nagging injury for about a year now, and it gradually worsened to the point where he had to shut it down for a while here.

[Paulie Walnuts]

While it is good for Zayne to round out his game it can’t come at the expense of his offence. He was drafted to push the play and generate offence.

Keeping up the same points is crazy because of how much he scored last year.

[McG]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Parekh has 15 points in his last 7 games. So if he can keep this up, he could still surpass last year's totals, which is not something that is easy to do.

And not even good enough to get invited to camp.

[Snuffleupagus]

The 20 yr old Trevor Hoskin pick was weird for me, he may not have even been drafted let alone early in the 4th round, I was clamoring for Poirier's little brother starting in the 3rd round, pure sniper with some nice jam to his game and I think the youngest player in the draft.

Watch this clip and tell me he can't score in the NHL

Snipes

[Sandman]

A few thoughts:

-I fully expected Parekh to have a regression in numbers, as he was always going to have to learn to play a more well-rounded game- and give the kid credit, it seems he's heading in that direction. In a recent interview that I quoted in the CHL Prospects thread, he acknowledged that he was drafted for what he can do with the puck, but admitted that he wouldn't make it far in the NHL if he can't be trusted by the coaches on the ice.

-There were whispers about a month ago about Gridin mailing it in a little bit in the Q, but I believe now that he was just getting acclimated to a new situation- something that seems to plague new players to the CHL. In the last few weeks, he's been more productive and it seems that he's named to the 3 stars every night, even when there's players that have much better numbers in the game- and there was even one instance in the past week where he was named 3rd star in a game where he had no points. Last season, in his draft year, he led the USHL in scoring- which is a pretty amazing feat, and he led his team in scoring by 15 points. I thought taking him in the first was a bit of a reach though, as I had him early second, but I wasn't mad either.

-I'm not worried at all about Basha. In fact, I'm much more worried about Parekh and Gridin than Basha, especially if he truly has been dealing with injuries. He was one of the best youngsters at camp this year.

-I wrote about how much I liked Battaglia long before we drafted him. I was more excited about this pick than I was about the first three (I can't help being crazy).

-I was most excited about snagging Mews in the third round, as most (including myself) had him going in the late first-early second rounds. I'm very familiar with this kid, and I've watched him a lot- he's a good one. The Hockey Gods gave us this one.

-I knew nothing about Zarubin when we drafted him, but there were a few draft-watchers who picked him as the best goalie available in his draft. I guess we'll see...

-Thought there was better players available where Hoskin was picked, but we'll see. His numbers in the NCAA are good, but he's 20 yo and plays in a weak division.

-Drafting Misa in the 5th round might have been another gift from the Hockey Gods, in a year that saw a trend emerge of smaller players being snubbed. Misa started down the lineup in Brampton and his offensive numbers suffered as a result, but since being elevated to the top line he's putting up points at a nearly 2 ppg pace. This kid literally has everything you want in a player except size, and most had him in the 2nd round.

-Eric Jamieson was loved by the scouts and coaches at camp, and he might be the best shutdown D in the WHL- placing in the top-5 for plus/minus in the league.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

The 20 yr old Trevor Hoskin pick was weird for me, he may not have even been drafted let alone early in the 4th round, I was clamoring for Poirier's little brother starting in the 3rd round, pure sniper with some nice jam to his game and I think the youngest player in the draft.

Watch this clip and tell me he can't score in the NHL

Snipes

Yeah, they must have figured they have too many small forwards. I really wanted them to snag him in the later rounds

[InternationalVillager]

A player like Basha....now that he's drafted by the Flames....will get get Flames resources to help rehab his injury?

[Erick Estrada]

I still think it's a good draft but it's also a reminder that a rebuild takes several solid drafts as a lot of these kids won't make it.

[SilverKast]

I think of it more as a long term game instead of just expecting points to increase every single season. Look at Backlund, half the board had given up on him ever becoming anything and it took him a while. Sometimes it just takes a few years for players to grow their game into the professional level.

As long as they're progressing is the main thing, but points totals isn't the only measure for that. It's the flashiest for sure, but there's also things like learning a better defensive game, rounding out your game and simply physically maturing from an 18 year old kid and gaining the strength to play at the pro level.

Our picks all look pretty good, now it's just going to be a matter of time. Hopefully we can help provide the necessary tools to help them achieve success at the next level!

[MrButtons]

Important to remember Parekh is rocking a ~8% shooting percentage. Sandman gave an update he had 9 shots one game so id argue he’s not regressing, it’s just not going in like last year. (Also last year was ~14% and id argue his recent uptick is a function of sh% normalizing a bit)

[Bonded]

The best time to judge prospects is a quarter of the season after they were drafted...
I have to say I thought Honzek was a total bust until he looked decent in pre-season

[FBI]

How is Honzek doing anyway these days?

[Funkhouser]

Originally Posted by FBI

How is Honzek doing anyway these days?

Bustin'


Kidding - I felt the same. Prior to this pre-season, I was convinced he had no NHL future.
Now I can see he has wheels, size and a decent hockey sense. I suspect he will never be a line driver, but will be a garbage man and collect points in an unspectacular fashion.
His stat line on the Wranglers is poor, but I haven't watched the games to know why.

[Wastedyouth]

Basha is a Connor Zary level prospect.

His brain for the game is going to take him very far. He thinks at a higher level than most on the ice.