Calgary Flames - Path to Contention

[Groot]

I was thinking of this as we go through what is likely the deepest prospect pool we have had in years if not ever, and its come up in a few other different topics so figured I'd make a dedicated topic about it.

When can the team potentially be a competitive team again?
What pieces do we currently have in the system for a truly competitive team and where would they slot in that lineup?
What else will the team need to truly be a contender?

So for example, I think the team has the pieces and trajectory to be competitive/playoff team in 2027-2028 and a contender the following year, and hope to see the following in the next few years.

2024 - 2025 - Top 5 pick
2025 - 2026 - Top 5 pick
2026 - 2027 - Pick 8-16
2027 - 2028 - Competitive/Playoff Team (coincides with the new arena)
2028 - 2029 - Contending Team

If some prospects develop to their ceiling, who do we have that slots in to a contending lineup and what spots do we still need to fill? Including veterans that would still be in the lineup at that time (below is just an example for people to work off of)

2028/2029 Calgary Flames
Top Line
LW: None (25/26 pick)
Center: None (25/26 pick)
RW: None (25/26 pick)

Second Line
LW: Basha
Center: Misa
RW: Coronato

Third Line
LW: Zary
C: Kadri
RW: Honzek

Fourth Line
LW: Huberdeau
C: Lipinski
RW: Pelletier

1st Pair Defense
LD: Morin
RD: Parekh

2nd Pair Defense
LD: Weegar
RD: Brzustewicz

3rd Pair Defense
LD: Poirier
RD: Mews

Goalie
Starter: Wolf
Backup: Yegorov

Veteran Under Contract Not Listed:
Sharangovich

The above is mostly just to start conversation, not necessarily where I see everyone slotting in.

I think our D pipeline is where it needs to be to develop into a competitive team, we're filled with middle-6 potential and maybe a surprise or two for top line, and we just need the legit top-end forward pieces that should be acquired in the next 2 drafts if we finish low enough in the standings. Please hockey Gods gift us McKenna!

Thoughts? When are we competitive and which prospects will be key in us getting there?

[Goriders]

Pretty sure they will be shooting to be competitive the year before they move into the new arena.

[EVERLAST]

I say we win the cup the 1st year in our new building. Hanging some banners in the rafters 1st year in would be nice.

In all seriousness as quickly as things have and are changing a new culture shift where we easily make the playoffs yearly would be cool.

Having us become a desired place to come play would be nice as well but I cant see it based on taxes players who play here have to pay....compared to elsewhere.

These recent additions have me cautiously optimistic for the future .

[lazypucker]

I just wish that Conroy will manage signings the right way, unlike Edmonton who thinks that they got McDrai and cup wins will just magically happen...

[Reggie Dunlop]

Hopefully Murray doesn't become impatient and cans Connie halfway through the rebuild.

[Goriders]

Doubt that will happen. But at some point they are going to have to be able to entice decent players to come here. You’re not going to build a whole team via the draft.

Being utterly horrible probably isn’t the best way to do that.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Doubt that will happen. But at some point they are going to have to be able to entice decent players to come here. You’re not going to build a whole team via the draft.

Being utterly horrible probably isn’t the best way to do that.

With any luck, we'll win the lottery and get a 1st OA in the next couple of years, and draft the kind of talent that player sign on to play with.

[EVERLAST]

This whole we need the lottery win to win BS erks me. Why? Edmonton still doesnt have a cup with their gift and easiest path ever to a final


Honestly i don't want the NHLs mandate to have anything to do with success. Being labeled a bunch a dirty cap circumventing, lottery gifted, blah blah blahbitty blahs doesnt appeal to me in the least. Well get there on our own power thanks very much.

Things are looking up and we seem to forget . Im grateful weve seen IMO some good changes , great draft, promising prospects, building on nthe way.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by EVERLAST

This whole we need the lottery win to win BS erks me. Why? Edmonton still doesnt have a cup with their gift and easiest path ever to a final


Honestly i don't want the NHLs mandate to have anything to do with success. Being labeled a bunch a dirty cap circumventing, lottery gifted, blah blah blahbitty blahs doesnt appeal to me in the least. Well get there on our own power thanks very much.

Things are looking up and we seem to forget . Im grateful weve seen IMO some good changes , great draft, promising prospects, building on nthe way.

Why do you use Edmonton as an example? Why not Florida, Colorado, Tampa, St. Louis, Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago, LA? All these champions were built on lottery wins/had top-5 picks in key positions.

Having the picks guarantees nothing, but not having the picks all but guarantees no Championship.

If the Flames can manage top-5 picks in both 2025 and 2026 and they don’t blow those picks, I’d say they’re giving themselves a legitimate chance to really turn the corner. The key, outside of gaining those top-5 picks, is as easy as Conroy being one of the top-5 general managers in the league. I love the guy, so I hope he becomes just that.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Hopefully Murray doesn't become impatient and cans Connie halfway through the rebuild.

I think once the new arena is open, the pressure from Edwards’s/ownership will take a significant uptick.

I think Conroy and his team of scouts/exec’s can pull it off but if they misfire on two-three higher picks, I think we will see this organization fall into similar ways of building the team as we have seen for the past 20 years or so. ie: trading picks for players and questionable UFA signings that are intended to get the team into the playoffs and hope for the best.

Conroy has about 3-4 years grace. After that, rubber is going to hit the road.

Rightly or wrongly I don’t think Flames ownership will tolerate what we’ve seen in Montreal as an example. I think the rebuild window here is going to be shorter.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by EVERLAST

This whole we need the lottery win to win BS erks me. Why? Edmonton still doesnt have a cup with their gift and easiest path ever to a final


Honestly i don't want the NHLs mandate to have anything to do with success. Being labeled a bunch a dirty cap circumventing, lottery gifted, blah blah blahbitty blahs doesnt appeal to me in the least. Well get there on our own power thanks very much.

Things are looking up and we seem to forget . Im grateful weve seen IMO some good changes , great draft, promising prospects, building on nthe way.

We don’t need to win the lottery. What we do need is to find/get lucky enough and draft the Draisat’s/Makar’s/Tkachuk’s/Hughes and all the other examples of elite players that seem to go in the top 5 or so picks of the draft. Whether that’s first overall, or otherwise, should be lesser concern. Every year in redrafts we see guys consistently picked lower than where they should have gone. As an example, if in five years from now if the consensus is Parekh should have gone in the top 5, that’s, obviously, what you want.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by TOfan

We don’t need to win the lottery. What we do need is to find/get lucky enough and draft the Draisat’s/Makar’s/Tkachuk’s/Hughes and all the other examples of elite players that seem to go in the top 5 or so picks of the draft. Whether that’s first overall, or otherwise, should be lesser concern. Every year in redrafts we see guys consistently picked lower than where they should have gone. As an example, if in five years from now if the consensus is Parekh should have gone in the top 5, that’s, obviously, what you want.

You don't need 1st overall pick for sure, but 1st overall picks are star players at like an 80% rate. Even 2nd overall is only around 40-50%.

Getting top picks is key but they best rebuilds get a couple stars but also draft well and develop outside those 2 picks. Edmonton got the stars but failed to produce much outside of the early picks.

I also feel drafting the dmen 1st is a key as most time they are slower to develop. The way this team is set up already, we just need the top 3 picks the next 2 years. If we get it, lookout.

Nice to have a potential franchise goalie already, hopefully he doesn't block us getting the top 3 picks, but it is never a bad things that a young player is that good.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Groot

I was thinking of this as we go through what is likely the deepest prospect pool we have had in years if not ever, and its come up in a few other different topics so figured I'd make a dedicated topic about it.

When can the team potentially be a competitive team again?
What pieces do we currently have in the system for a truly competitive team and where would they slot in that lineup?
What else will the team need to truly be a contender?

So for example, I think the team has the pieces and trajectory to be competitive/playoff team in 2027-2028 and a contender the following year, and hope to see the following in the next few years.

2024 - 2025 - Top 5 pick
2025 - 2026 - Top 5 pick
2026 - 2027 - Pick 8-16
2027 - 2028 - Competitive/Playoff Team (coincides with the new arena)
2028 - 2029 - Contending Team

If some prospects develop to their ceiling, who do we have that slots in to a contending lineup and what spots do we still need to fill? Including veterans that would still be in the lineup at that time (below is just an example for people to work off of)

2028/2029 Calgary Flames
Top Line
LW: None (25/26 pick)
Center: None (25/26 pick)
RW: None (25/26 pick)

Second Line
LW: Basha
Center: Misa
RW: Coronato

Third Line
LW: Zary
C: Kadri
RW: Honzek

Fourth Line
LW: Huberdeau
C: Lipinski
RW: Pelletier

1st Pair Defense
LD: Morin
RD: Parekh

2nd Pair Defense
LD: Weegar
RD: Brzustewicz

3rd Pair Defense
LD: Poirier
RD: Mews

Goalie
Starter: Wolf
Backup: Yegorov

Veteran Under Contract Not Listed:
Sharangovich

The above is mostly just to start conversation, not necessarily where I see everyone slotting in.

I think our D pipeline is where it needs to be to develop into a competitive team, we're filled with middle-6 potential and maybe a surprise or two for top line, and we just need the legit top-end forward pieces that should be acquired in the next 2 drafts if we finish low enough in the standings. Please hockey Gods gift us McKenna!

Thoughts? When are we competitive and which prospects will be key in us getting there?

Agree with the path. Don't think your lines are realistic. Huberdeau at $10.5 million on the 4th line? Kadri and Huberdeau will be in the top 6 for the lenghts of their contract, maybe Kadri will transition into a 2A/2b role, if the Flames acquire a legit top line centre and another 2nd line centre develops.

The Flames also have a ton of lottery tickets, in the way of depth picks. Anyways, I just don't see the entire top 6 being new guys and the bottom six being vets. They'll likely shuflle the team to have a balane of both.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by blankall

Agree with the path. Don't think your lines are realistic. Huberdeau at $10.5 million on the 4th line? Kadri and Huberdeau will be in the top 6 for the lenghts of their contract, maybe Kadri will transition into a 2A/2b role, if the Flames acquire a legit top line centre and another 2nd line centre develops.

The Flames also have a ton of lottery tickets, in the way of depth picks. Anyways, I just don't see the entire top 6 being new guys and the bottom six being vets. They'll likely shuflle the team to have a balane of both.

Huberdeau and Kadri will be gone when this team is on the rise. Kadri is tradeable right now, he should be in a year as well if they choose not to move him now hoping for a good return.

Huberdeau will have a season with the young kids at some point that he will be moved. Might take an asset to get rid of him but there is always a short-term bad contract around the league that can be taken back. If the Flames continue to add pick after pick, they will eventually be able to afford to use 1 to get rid of him. Just might take a few years to play out.

[All In Good Time]

I still think there are going to be at least a couple of more vets moved before we are completely finished ripping this down. We have entered a group with teams like Buffalo and Columbus and even though its irresponsible to assume we are going to "wander in the wilderness" for a decade, we will be lumped together with those franchises until we prove we shouldn't be.
That said, I think that "being a contender" in 5 years is incredibly optimistic. I would definitely love that but I really think that's wishful thinking. I think there is a good chance that players like Brzustewicz, Poirier and Wolf wont even be with this team by the time we become relevant again.
Id say we just keep doing what we are doing (moving vets collecting picks), cross our fingers at the draft table for the next 3 or so years and if we challenge for a playoff spot in year 5, I will call this rebuild successful.

[Roof-Daddy]

2025 draft -> gimme Hagens & McQueen in the 1st
2026 draft -> gimme McKenna & Joe Iggy in the 1st

2027 -> gimme Makar as a UFA

The Cup will be easy to win

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

I still think there are going to be at least a couple of more vets moved before we are completely finished ripping this down. We have entered a group with teams like Buffalo and Columbus and even though its irresponsible to assume we are going to "wander in the wilderness" for a decade, we will be lumped together with those franchises until we prove we shouldn't be.
That said, I think that "being a contender" in 5 years is incredibly optimistic. I would definitely love that but I really think that's wishful thinking. I think there is a good chance that players like Brzustewicz, Poirier and Wolf wont even be with this team by the time we become relevant again.
Id say we just keep doing what we are doing (moving vets collecting picks), cross our fingers at the draft table for the next 3 or so years and if we challenge for a playoff spot in year 5, I will call this rebuild successful.

Challenge for a playoff spot in 5 years is not successful. You really don't have to be that good to be in the playoffs race. There are usually 20 to 22 teams in the playoffs or racing to make it. Maybe it takes 5 years to be a team that is a lock to make it and more than 5 to be a true contender, but it is possible that this team is a playoff team in 3 years.

Leafs drafted Mathews and Marner - been a playoff team ever since
Oilers got Mcdavid and Draisaitl - made the playoffs after Mcdavid rookie year, missed 2 years then been in every year since

Colorado drafted MacKinnon and Landeskog - made the playoffs, missed 3 years in a row but 2 were in playoff contention and made it every year since

Pittsburgh drafted Crosby and Malkin - missed playoffs in Crosby rookie year, made it 16 straight years after

Tampa drafted Stamkos and Hedman, missed 1 year and were in the conference finals the next. Missed a couple more time but only 1 year that they were not a playoff caliber team

Washington - draft AO and Backstrom missed the playoffs once, been there almost every year since

Chicago drafted Kane and Toews missed the playoffs twice then started a dynasty

It's actually pretty common if you get a couple top picks, you're good fairly quickly. Even Edmonton is a playoff team most of McDavid's career.

[Locke]

The key is not landing on the Snakes.

And all of the Snakes are named Brad.

[The Yen Man]

To be honest, I'm not really expecting playoffs for the next 5 years. I think 2029-2030 is the next realistic season Flames can make the playoffs. We're pretty much Chicago / San Jose bad for the next few years.

[All In Good Time]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Challenge for a playoff spot in 5 years is not successful. You really don't have to be that good to be in the playoffs race. There are usually 20 to 22 teams in the playoffs or racing to make it. Maybe it takes 5 years to be a team that is a lock to make it and more than 5 to be a true contender, but it is possible that this team is a playoff team in 3 years.

Leafs drafted Mathews and Marner - been a playoff team ever since
Oilers got Mcdavid and Draisaitl - made the playoffs after Mcdavid rookie year, missed 2 years then been in every year since

Colorado drafted MacKinnon and Landeskog - made the playoffs, missed 3 years in a row but 2 were in playoff contention and made it every year since

Pittsburgh drafted Crosby and Malkin - missed playoffs in Crosby rookie year, made it 16 straight years after

Tampa drafted Stamkos and Hedman, missed 1 year and were in the conference finals the next. Missed a couple more time but only 1 year that they were not a playoff caliber team

Washington - draft AO and Backstrom missed the playoffs once, been there almost every year since

Chicago drafted Kane and Toews missed the playoffs twice then started a dynasty

It's actually pretty common if you get a couple top picks, you're good fairly quickly. Even Edmonton is a playoff team most of McDavid's career.

Of course if we get a Mathews or a Mcdavid or a MacKinnon or a Crosby PLUS another great player things could improve quickly. I just don't think that is as easy to do as you suggest.
its more likely to believe that we are going to be terrible for the next 2 years and no 18, 19 or 20 year old is going to change things quickly for us.
That's why I believe the 5 year mark will be important. We will either be seeing improvement by then or we are headed further into "Buffalo or Columbus" territory.