FCHockey's 2024 NHL Draft Guide & Q&A Thread

[FCAV]

Hey guys!

Aaron Vickers here with FCHockey. Talked to Bingo, and he gave the thumbs up for this thread! Wanted to first of all thank y'all for the support of FCHockey in the past. Calgary's always been our strongest market and I think a good chunk of that comes from the support at CP!

Now, the goods! Use promo code calgarypuck to unlock 40% off site wide (including memberships and the draft guide.). I think there might be a built-in cheat where things get even cheaper if you sign up for a membership using it, and then buying the draft guide to double up on the membership discount, too, but I haven't verified it since math isn't my strong suit.

Going the membership route will also unlock over a thousand single-game reports from the 2024 class, and over 18,000 in our archives!

Surf over to HERE to sign up.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1802788302854258955

Now, this wouldn't be as fun if it were just a sales pitch, so if you have questions about the 2024 NHL Draft class, drop them below! We'll treat this as a little AMA and I'll try to answer any questions you might have about individual prospects or the draft as a whole. If it's someone I haven't seen, I'll track down a few of our scouts and gather their thoughts!

Additionally, here's a little extra fun/background for the 2024 draft:

Our final ranking: https://nhlentrydraft.com/news/fchoc...024-nhl-draft/
North American analytics darlings: https://nhlentrydraft.com/news/2024-...north-america/
European analytics darlings: https://nhlentrydraft.com/news/2024-...tics-european/
Tij Iginla deep dive: https://nhlentrydraft.com/news/tij-i...024-nhl-draft/
Build your own mock draft: https://nhlentrydraft.com/mock-draft/
Build your own rankings: https://nhlentrydraft.com/rankings-builder/
FCHockey's maybe-not-final Mock Draft: https://nhlentrydraft.com/news/2024-...mock-one-week/

I look forward to your questions! Drop them below and I'll do my best to get back to them quickly!

[serratedmuffin]

Thanks for posting this, I do have a question for you! When evaluating prospects, how much does age come into play? For example, Jett Luchanko has a late Aug birthday and Yakemchuk has a Sept birthday of the previous year. Luchanko seemingly has a solid mid-late first ranking where the older Yakemchuk seems a bit more all over the place.

[Freeway]

FC's guide *rules*. Basically essential reading for fans (and media!).

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by FCAV

Now, this wouldn't be as fun if it were just a sales pitch, so if you have questions about the 2024 NHL Draft class, drop them below!

I have a 3fer...

1: Which players will absolutely not be available at #9... We keep on hearing that the draft is pretty open after Celebrini but I find it hard to believe that it's THAT open... so who in your opinion has say a less then 10% chance of being available at 9?

2: Who will be the biggest faller in the draft (and where do you think they will fall to)? Relative to expected draft position I mean.

3: You have to take a goalie: Which goalie and in what round?

[FCAV]

Originally Posted by serratedmuffin

Thanks for posting this, I do have a question for you! When evaluating prospects, how much does age come into play? For example, Jett Luchanko has a late Aug birthday and Yakemchuk has a Sept birthday of the previous year. Luchanko seemingly has a solid mid-late first ranking where the older Yakemchuk seems a bit more all over the place.

I'll speak for myself in particular as we don't have a hard-and-fast policy or anything at FC. I think this is more of an issue when looking at overagers or players re-entering the draft more so than a September birthday versus a June birthday, but one does have to take into consideration how many years of service a player has in a particular league. For example, Yakemchuk finished his third full season in the WHL where as a player like Luchanko (not that you'd cross-shop one versus the other) was a sophomore. Older, more experienced players typically get more opportunity and ice time, and are a bit further in their development -- which in itself has benefits and detractions, similar to how physical testing at the combine can be a double-edged sword (a guy in top physical condition may have already hit his ceiling while a prospect lacking development may indicate another level or two to reach).

Birth month would be a data point than anything in my mind, but if you're asking me which I'd prefer in a prospect if if I view them on the same level, I'd want the younger one.

[Snuffleupagus]

Hi Aaron, bet you $20 Iginla goes top 9

[FCAV]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I have a 3fer...

1: Which players will absolutely not be available at #9... We keep on hearing that the draft is pretty open after Celebrini but I find it hard to believe that it's THAT open... so who in your opinion has say a less then 10% chance of being available at 9?

2: Who will be the biggest faller in the draft (and where do you think they will fall to)? Relative to expected draft position I mean.

3: You have to take a goalie: Which goalie and in what round?

1. I'd be surprised if the likes of Demidov and Silayev. Demidov, for me, is the clear second-best forward. Silayev has a high floor, but also a high ceiling because it's rare to find a 6-foot-7 defenseman with his ability to move around the ice... and an underrated game. I don't see the quote-unquote Russian factor coming into play. I could see Levshunov (who I'm not that high on, to be honest, and we've got at No. 10) going too, but I wouldn't put him in the 'guarantee' category.

2. As much as it might not be a popular answer (depending on who you ask) I could also see Yakemchuk slipping a bit, relative to consensus ranking. I can see the scenario where teams value a few other blueliners, after the big five, like Solberg and Jiricek, and then wildcards like Emery, Pulkkinen, Kiviharju, Badinka and Shuravin. Not suggesting all will leapfrog Yakemchuk, but I could see the scenario where a couple do.

3. I shopped this out to David Phillips, one of our goalie scouts. But I kind of prefaced it as 'if you had to draft a goalie, who and where offers the best bang for buck relative to our rankings' so he won't just say Vinni in the seventh. His target is Ivan Yunin, who should go late but does stand the chance of not being drafted at all. A couple Flames targets he tossed out were Evan Gardner at 106/107 and Louka Cloutier (or Yunin) at 170.

[howard_the_duck]

There's been a lot of speculation about top 15 picks being trade bait. Is this an indictment on the draft class, or what is the hearsay around scouting circles on this draft strength?

[Jiri Hrdina]

Who's the player that you think has been "over-scouted". By that I mean, has been on the radar too long, to the point that people are unfairly picking apart warts.

[Fan69]

If you were picking one player in the second round from top to bottom who would it be? Obviously rankings differ so i wouldnt discount low first or high third guys in your pick.

Myself i want Bedouin with the van pick as i dont think he makes it to our first second.

[FCAV]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Hi Aaron, bet you $20 Iginla goes top 9

I'd be tempted!

[ForeverFlameFan]

Got it! Thanks FCAV!

[FCAV]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

There's been a lot of speculation about top 15 picks being trade bait. Is this an indictment on the draft class, or what is the hearsay around scouting circles on this draft strength?

I think it's probably more an indictment of the lack of franchise-altering players in this class. There'll certainly be some players that emerge down the road that have that status, but I feel like even among those in the top-15 (outside of Celebrini) there is a potential flaw that could limit the ceiling on those prospects. Most, if not all, have really strong floors, but the ceilings could lower a bit. Chances are, teams are more likely to get a complimentary player than a franchise player.

That's just the general feel I have, and a few of us share it at FCHockey. That's not to say players can't outplay their ceiling and emerge, and we see it every year, but I think the expectation right now is that there are players to be had... but what is their ultimate upside if they're inside the top-10? That doesn't diminish my excitement as the unpredictability of this draft will make for good theatre, but also my job isn't on the line if a top-10 pick develops into a third-liner.

[FCAV]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Who's the player that you think has been "over-scouted". By that I mean, has been on the radar too long, to the point that people are unfairly picking apart warts.

I think Eiserman fits the bill a little bit here. He's been hammered for being one-dimensional, but he's kind of been that way the past few years. Fact remains he's probably the best pure goal-scorer in the class, and he's fallen into the mid teens, for the most part.

Some of that is not taking another step this season in his all-round game, and I get that. And, as a result, he's a very big boom-or-bust guy because I don't think he'll be functional at the NHL level if he's just a 20-goal guy, but I do think his flaws aren't fatal and can be coached out.

[TheIronMaiden]

Who do you guess the Flames pick and why?

[FCAV]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Who do you guess the Flames pick and why?

That's a lethal question and anyone giving you a definitive answer is bsing. There's no question this draft is wide open, particularly in the section where the Flames will be making their first pick. For me, I see a clear 1-2 with Celebrini and Demidov, but even that isn't consensus with many having Levshunov as a potential No. 2. If you want to go that route, there are a lot of interchangeable pieces between 4-12.

How does a run on defense, if there is one, fall out? How does it leave the balance of forwards? Who is the player that goes in the top-10 that no one predicted (Reinbacher, Simashev, Danielson in 2023, Kasper and Mintyukov in 2022, Tyler Boucher in 2021)?

I can probably make a case for any of Lindstrom, Catton, Parekh, Helenius, Iginla, and even Silayev being available at No. 9.

[gvitaly]

The Flames lost a lot of key players this season. Stylistically which prospects resemble the players we lost the most? and where are they expected to get drafted?

Lindholm -
Hanifin -
Tanev -
Zadorov -

Bonus:
Toffoli -
Bennett -
Tkachuk -

Thanks in advance.

[RyZ]

Who is a player that is not in the FC top 32 that you could see a team really liking and taking in the early 20s?

[FCAV]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

The Flames lost a lot of key players this season. Stylistically which prospects resemble the players we lost the most? and where are they expected to get drafted?

Lindholm -
Hanifin -
Tanev -
Zadorov -

Bonus:
Toffoli -
Bennett -
Tkachuk -

Thanks in advance.

I've never been a big fan of comparables at all, nor have I personally seen each prospect eligible in this class to designate someone as the best comparable for a Tkachuk. But some generalities I will toss out is the likening of a Sam Dickinson to Hanifin (in terms of the well-roundedness), Michael Brandsegg-Nygard to a Tkachuk (in terms of how I think his aggressiveness could translate), Anton Silayev as a Zadorov (in terms of both being big men who can move, though I find Silayev's skill will be smoother), Cole Beaudoin as a Bennett (in terms of his physical mindset).

[FCAV]

Originally Posted by RyZ

Who is a player that is not in the FC top 32 that you could see a team really liking and taking in the early 20s?

Good question. There are a few players we're lower on that teams are likely higher on. One player in particular is Terik Parascak. We're really concerned about his skating ability (among the slowest players we have in our top-100, maybe top-200) and size. That combination is usually one that doesn't produce NHLers. But at the same time he's one of the smartest players in the entire draft class -- hence the conundrum. When time and space evaporates at higher levels, how will we see his effectiveness reduce? It's not about seeing a high point total and tossing a guy into the first round... it's all about how the skills (both positive and negative traits) project at the next level.

As things get bigger/faster/stronger, how will the player adapt? If he (speaking generally here) doesn't have enough translatable skills as a scorer to be a top-six forward, can he do enough to stick in a bottom-six role?