08-27-2024, 04:21 PM
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#1
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Appealing my suspension
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Just outside Enemy Lines
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New 2024 Degenerate Football gambling thread
Well the one we have is 5 years old so figure to start a new one.
For week one NFL, I'm looking to play under on every game. Since the 17 game season and shorter pre-season with starters playing less, scoring in the opening week has been low. Public loves overs and people tend to get excited for football so the market can raise the total and still get action on the over.
I hope that I'll hit 10 of 16 and make a profit. Last year 12 of 16 were under in week one.
__________________
"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
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08-27-2024, 04:29 PM
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#2
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NOT breaking news
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Calgary
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I'm one of those public 'over' people.
__________________
Watching the Oilers defend is like watching fire engines frantically rushing to the wrong fire
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08-27-2024, 06:45 PM
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#3
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Red Deer, AB
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So far have only made division winner bids
Dolphins +200
Cowboys +170
Chiefs -250
49ers - 210
Buccaneers +300
Next is going through the W/L total
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08-27-2024, 09:45 PM
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#4
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Appealing my suspension
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Just outside Enemy Lines
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GirlySports
I'm one of those public 'over' people.
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Well week 2 tends to be the better week for that Saw a lot of data last year suggesting that Division game rematches from US Thanksgiving on are like 62% for overs.
__________________
"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
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08-28-2024, 11:52 AM
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#5
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Nostradamus
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: London Ont.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylvanfan
Well the one we have is 5 years old so figure to start a new one.
For week one NFL, I'm looking to play under on every game. Since the 17 game season and shorter pre-season with starters playing less, scoring in the opening week has been low. Public loves overs and people tend to get excited for football so the market can raise the total and still get action on the over.
I hope that I'll hit 10 of 16 and make a profit. Last year 12 of 16 were under in week one.
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I was thinking of doing the same, but since it was so obvious last year, I feel the books will correct. Maybe not though, since as GirlySports points out the public loves the over. I haven't looked at the lines yet. Trying to figure out college this weekend first.
__________________
agggghhhhhh!!!
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08-28-2024, 01:22 PM
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#6
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Appealing my suspension
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Just outside Enemy Lines
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zukes
I was thinking of doing the same, but since it was so obvious last year, I feel the books will correct. Maybe not though, since as GirlySports points out the public loves the over. I haven't looked at the lines yet. Trying to figure out college this weekend first.
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The totals I've seen are very comparable to what was out last season in week 1.
Last year average closing total was 44.1 with the lowest at 38 and highest at 52.5 and one other game over 50. The games averaged just a touch over 41 points. Based on what's out right now I'm seeing average line at 44.7 points with the lowest being 40.5 and only the Rams and Lions set over 50 and only one game below 41.5.
This all likely means nothing since matchups are different, it's a new season. But I'll see how I do. Books are not trying to predict results, they're managing risk. So my thinking is they can inflate week one lines knowing they'll still get enough action on overs. The books want a 50-50 handle on every game and to take the juice.
__________________
"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
Last edited by Sylvanfan; 08-28-2024 at 01:34 PM.
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09-02-2024, 10:53 PM
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#7
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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So I run a pick 'em pool every year. It's nothing special, but willing to open it up to some CPers if you're interested. It's not anything special, but here are the rules:
- $25 entry fee
- pick every game every week against the spread
- two lowest scoring weeks are dropped
- highest score at the end of the year wins the whole pot
If interested, PM me and I'll shoot you an invite link.
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09-05-2024, 11:31 PM
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#8
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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By a toe, I won my Chiefs ML/U48.5 parlay.
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09-06-2024, 08:55 AM
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#9
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Franchise Player
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The over/under for Jackson rushing yards was 58.5. lol That's like printing money...
__________________
Peter12 "I'm no Trump fan but he is smarter than most if not everyone in this thread. ”
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09-06-2024, 12:05 PM
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#10
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Pitt Meadows
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Yeah and Likely rec yards was 15.5. I had Pacheco o78.5 rush + rec yards and he finishes at 78
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The Following User Says Thank You to Hockey For This Useful Post:
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09-06-2024, 01:03 PM
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#11
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey
Yeah and Likely rec yards was 15.5. I had Pacheco o78.5 rush + rec yards and he finishes at 78
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I hit 4 out of 5 on my player props. The only one I missed was Andrews Over 4.5 receptions. Would have been nice to know he was a on a pitch count, but I also counted at least 3-4 times he was open and Lamar just didn't look his way.
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09-06-2024, 08:20 PM
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#12
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Appealing my suspension
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Just outside Enemy Lines
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So much for unders.
__________________
"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
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09-07-2024, 07:29 PM
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#13
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Lifetime Suspension
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Marvin Harrison Jr - Over 58.5 -125
Wager: $25
To Return: $45
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09-07-2024, 08:06 PM
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#14
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Crowsnest Pass
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sylvanfan
so much for unders.
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0-2?
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09-08-2024, 09:49 AM
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#15
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
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Parlay
Iosivas 40+yds
Odunze 40+
Kincaid 40+
Bowers 25+
+577
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09-08-2024, 10:07 AM
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#16
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Appealing my suspension
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Just outside Enemy Lines
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
0-2?
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Depends where and when you got the first game. I'm 0-2, if I had some other accounts could be 1-1 as the Chiefs Ravens game was between 46 and 48 depending on the book.
__________________
"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
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09-08-2024, 10:47 AM
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#17
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Pitt Meadows
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Evans
Ridley
Adams
Parlay ATD
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09-08-2024, 04:46 PM
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#18
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NOT breaking news
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Calgary
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Lions wearing their blueberries tonight. Adjust your bets accordingly! (Lions were 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their all Honolulu blues last year.)
__________________
Watching the Oilers defend is like watching fire engines frantically rushing to the wrong fire
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09-08-2024, 10:28 PM
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#20
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NOT breaking news
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylvanfan
So much for unders.
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If you count the Chiefs game as under, unders are 9-6 this week.
__________________
Watching the Oilers defend is like watching fire engines frantically rushing to the wrong fire
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