Franchise Ranking (Treliving Era)

[Bingo]

Kind of a pet project.

Took data from all seasons since Treliving became the actual GM (2015+, not including this season).

Looked at both regular season and playoff results.

Assigned value to each result and then added the playoff success to regulation success for a franchise value in this era.

The key is the value assigned to each outcome.

Playoffs:
25 points for a cup
15 points for losing in the final
10 Lost in semi final
5 Lost in 2nd round
1 Lost in 1st round
0 Missed playoffs

Regular Season:
10 points for being a juggernaught (.750+)
7.5 for being a contender (.650+)
5 for being a bubble team (.550+)
3 for being a pretender (.450+)
1 for being a rebuilding team (.350+)
0 for being historically bad (under .350)

Took Seattle and Vegas out of it ... not enough seasons

So out of the 31 teams

1. Tampa 152 points
2. Pittsburgh 104 points
3. St. Louis 93.5 points
4. Washington 93 points
5. Boston 79 points

19. Calgary 47.5 points
21. Edmonton 41 points

27. Vancouver 26 points
28. New Jersey 19 points
29. Arizona 16 points
30. Buffalo 13 points

Thoughts?

Calgary where you'd expect. Plenty of worse situations, but plenty better.

[Enoch Root]

sounds about right

Regular season, the Flames are better than that, probably in the 11-13 range. But playoff success has been subpar for the amount of appearances, so that should bring them down.

So all in, 17-19 sounds about right.

[FlamesAddiction]

It's probably pretty accurate. Treliving is a good GM, but I wouldn't say amazing. As a contract negotiator, he is generally good, but has made some blunders. When it comes to dealing with other GMs, I think he is above average. As a talent evaluator, I think he has a rather poor to mediocre record. When all is said and done, I think falling somewhere in the middle of the pack sounds about right. As you indicated with your criteria, the results show that as well.

[looooob]

not a Tre apologist or anything but wondering do you have the full list of Canadian teams?


I used to think it was drivel but starting to wonder (Toronto may be its own separate location with extra benefits and challenges) whether there is just something to Canada (outside of Toronto - maybe, and Vancouver when things are stable haha) just being places a large chunk of players choose to avoid, at least when they have options (yes I am shamelessly generalizing here), and this ties a GM's hands a bit (but also frankly forces them to be really good at other things like holding onto picks and drafting well- so in asking the question I'm not wiping blame from the guy)



so I guess in brief where do Flames fall in Canadian context?

[Aarongavey]

That first year (where he personally added about 10% of the roster) is 20% of his points. Each year after that on average the number of points became less and less.

Vegas has 70 points in 5 seasons. Elite franchise on pace to be the best in the league when you do this again in 5 years.

[Flaming Horse]

Really good work on this.Thanks for the input. So by these standards the flames are even worse than a average, middle of the row team.This is not good enough by the gm and if we think he is doing a good job we are just excepting mediocrity.The fans deserve better than this. For me if you look at only 2 playoff rounds won, the team as of today just looks average with a bunch of overpaid contracts now and coming up and with a not very strong prospect pool ,you have a gm who if you were to pass or fail has failed.

[GioforPM]

Looks like the cup win for St. Louis, which they've not come close to duplicating before or after, skews them upwards a bit. You could maybe even make the argument better for the Caps. They come across like an elite team because they have Ovie, but haven't been out of round 1 since the cup and lost in round 2 every year before.

Can you link your whole list or even post it (hidden if it's too big).

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by looooob

not a Tre apologist or anything but wondering do you have the full list of Canadian teams?


I used to think it was drivel but starting to wonder (Toronto may be its own separate location with extra benefits and challenges) whether there is just something to Canada (outside of Toronto - maybe, and Vancouver when things are stable haha) just being places a large chunk of players choose to avoid, at least when they have options (yes I am shamelessly generalizing here), and this ties a GM's hands a bit (but also frankly forces them to be really good at other things like holding onto picks and drafting well- so in asking the question I'm not wiping blame from the guy)



so I guess in brief where do Flames fall in Canadian context?

Yeah, it bears thinking about. The only big value re-sign where the player had leverage is Gio and maybe Backlund. Not only does Treliving face players walking, he arguably has to overpay UFAs and extensions.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

That first year (where he personally added about 10% of the roster) is 20% of his points. Each year after that on average the number of points became less and less.

.

maybe I don't understand the math but didn't he get 26% of his points just last season?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Looks like the cup win for St. Louis, which they've not come close to duplicating before or after, skews them upwards a bit. You could maybe even make the argument better for the Caps. They come across like an elite team because they have Ovie, but haven't been out of round 1 since the cup and lost in round 2 every year before.

Can you link your whole list or even post it (hidden if it's too big).

A cup win could be worth a 1000 points if you ask me.

It is everything.

[ComixZone]

Seems like the Flames settle in right where we all feel they do. Thanks for this Bingo.

Things are absolutely better in the organization thanks to his time here - but it is interesting to wonder just how much better (or not better) things are. Just because we can objectively say things are better in Calgary it doesn't necessarily mean they are better in comparison to the rest of the league. While we've become more competent, I feel like the league as a whole has become more competent (possibly thanks to more organizations picking up an analytical view?).

I still feel like the Flames are a well managed team that unfortunately just doesn't have the foundational talent to make a real mark come playoff time - and I don't really put that blame on Treliving's shoulders, but rather the organization's for not embracing a full/patient rebuild. Treliving has done a good job finding support players in the draft - with some fantastic home runs (Andersson in particular, Mangiapane as well). He has also been quite solid on the trade front, but the caliber of player(s) needed to make a real push come spring time are just not easy to acquire. On the free agency front I don't see that things have really changed under Treliving all that much - we still chase pretty much everyone we can to both our benefit and dismay.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

A cup win could be worth a 1000 points if you ask me.

It is everything.

I'm just saying because those seem to be anomonlies maybe their team wasn't as well built as they were flash in the pan. See 2004 Flames.

[Two Fivenagame]

This is why I can't wait to move on from this management group.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I still feel like the Flames are a well managed team that unfortunately just doesn't have the foundational talent to make a real mark come playoff time - and I don't really put that blame on Treliving's shoulders, but rather the organization's for not embracing a full/patient rebuild.

I blame 14-15 season for this. I do think after the trades of Iginla, Bouwmeester, and retirement of Kipper that the plan was to rebuild.

They were bad in 12-13 and they drafted Monahan at 6, bad again in 13-14 and drafted Bennett at 4 and looked poised for another top 5 pick in 2014-2015.

But unexpectedly Gio become a Norris candidate at 30, Brodie and him made an elite top pair, Gaudreau had a 64 point rookie season, Monahan scored 31, Hudler thrived with the two of them, and all of a sudden they won a round in the playoffs.

Sometimes it's forgotten but the Flames still sold on Glencross and Baertschi for picks that deadline and even with the strong year they still were committed in season to a longer build.

But my guess is the ownership mandate changed that offseason - they got the taste of two rounds of playoff revenue and didn't want to give that up again.

Even then though when I look back at it the Flames still had enough top of the draft talent in their lineup that constituted a "re-build". In the end they did have a top 5 pick from that 2015 draft in Hanifin on the roster.

Lindholm: 2013 - 5
Monahan: 2013 - 6
Bennett: 2014 - 4
Hanifin: 2015 - 5
Tkachuk: 2016 - 6

Plus Gaudreau, Andersson, Kylington, Mangiapane as drafted pieces that over performed their draft slot. Unfortunately Adam Fox should have been part of this too.

In some ways the Flames issue has been we haven't been mismanaged bad enough - it takes real skill to suck bad enough to get top 3 picks.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by looooob

not a Tre apologist or anything but wondering do you have the full list of Canadian teams?


I used to think it was drivel but starting to wonder (Toronto may be its own separate location with extra benefits and challenges) whether there is just something to Canada (outside of Toronto - maybe, and Vancouver when things are stable haha) just being places a large chunk of players choose to avoid, at least when they have options (yes I am shamelessly generalizing here), and this ties a GM's hands a bit (but also frankly forces them to be really good at other things like holding onto picks and drafting well- so in asking the question I'm not wiping blame from the guy)



so I guess in brief where do Flames fall in Canadian context?

Winnipeg 14th
Montreal 16th
Calgary 19th
Edmonton 21st
Toronto 22nd
Ottawa 25th
Vancouver 27th

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flaming Horse

Really good work on this.Thanks for the input. So by these standards the flames are even worse than a average, middle of the row team.This is not good enough by the gm and if we think he is doing a good job we are just excepting mediocrity.The fans deserve better than this. For me if you look at only 2 playoff rounds won, the team as of today just looks average with a bunch of overpaid contracts now and coming up and with a not very strong prospect pool ,you have a gm who if you were to pass or fail has failed.

Right ... but you walk out the "I hate Treliving" angle every chance you get.

You're predisposed.

I think it's deeper than that.

Is every GM's job the same? Same budget? Same cap space? Same ability to draw free agents? Same coaching pool?

Honestly who was expecting anything beyond middling?

I think some comments of late would have have you thinking 30th spot would be the result.

[ComixZone]

Looking at those top 5 teams is pretty neat too:

1. Tampa 152 points - built on those "foundational" picks of Stamkos (#1), Hedman (#1) but then also some massive home runs throughout the draft with Vasilevskiy (#19), Point (79th), and Kucherov (58th)

2. Pittsburgh 104 points - built on those "foundational" picks of Crosby (#1), Malkin (#1), Fleury (#1) and then again some very good depth picks with Guentzel (#77), Letting (#62), Murray (#83)

3. St. Louis 93.5 points - oddball team in here. This one has a foundational pick in Pietrangelo but then a lot of the team was built through trades (O'Reilly) and catching lightning in a bottle with Binnington coming out of nowhere.

4. Washington 93 points - built on those "foundational" picks of Ovechkin (#1), Backstrom (#4) and then yet again some very good depth picks with Carlson (#27), Kuznetsov (#26), Wilson (#16), Holtby (#93)

5. Boston 79 points - built on snagging a "foundational" player at #45 all the way back in 2003 with Bergeron, Marchand at #71 in 2006, Krejci at #63 in 2004, and some big trades (Rask) and other hits like Pastrnak at #16


The Bruins were effectively built on the backs of Bergeron, Marchand, and Krejci - those are three brilliant draft picks. I think winning a Stanley Cup as younger players also helped build a true winning culture - I think that has a lot to do with how Bergeron, Krejci and Marchand developed and kept that team going. I also think that this is from an era gone by when it comes to the draft - I don't believe Bergeron drops to 2nd round in this drafting environment.

The Blues are pretty much an underdog who really shouldn't have been there. Binnington coming out of nowhere like he did just doesn't happen. Hard to replicate.

Penguins, Capitals, and Lightning all followed the typical rebuild path (and doing it in the correct years). The foundation that their top-picks built allowed them to get very aggressive throughout the years when it comes to trades as well. Fill the important positions, and everything else becomes easier to address - also worth noting that these teams really have never gone "big game hunting" in free agency thanks to those core players being drafted and grown at home.

When I look at those top teams and then look at the Flames the only real difference I see is the top-end draft picks. You shouldn't try to repeat what the Blues did, because that's just not really any sort of "plan" that you can follow, but when it comes to Treliving's Flames? They've done well on trades and depth picks, but the Flames over reliance on free agency to try and fill spots and the lack of top picks just isn't a way to build a top team.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Looks like the cup win for St. Louis, which they've not come close to duplicating before or after, skews them upwards a bit. You could maybe even make the argument better for the Caps. They come across like an elite team because they have Ovie, but haven't been out of round 1 since the cup and lost in round 2 every year before.

Can you link your whole list or even post it (hidden if it's too big).

Here you go!

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

A cup win could be worth a 1000 points if you ask me.

It is everything.

Fair.

As I get older though, I don't see it as everything.

Take last season ... game seven ... overtime ... my 20 year old son and I stressed out all night. The euphoria.

That's a memory, a season that creates a memory like that gets a check mark.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Winnipeg 14th
Montreal 16th
Calgary 19th
Edmonton 21st
Toronto 22nd
Ottawa 25th
Vancouver 27th

ok seems about right. Montreal gets a bump for the random cup run (which to be fair did happen and was super fun for their fans I'm sure, but really probably didn't reflect roster construction)


Winnipeg at times maligned- and even they are mediocre at best league wide but they do a good job given their constraints