The Athletic: Calgary Flames season preview

[united]

Dom Luszczyszyn is again writing a long-form preview for every team this pre-season. It is impressive how much work he puts into each team so all are worth checking out if you are interested in the entire league, or even just particular teams who catch your eye.

Behind a paywall so only including a few key parts. The Athletic is well worth signing up for if you haven't already, in my opinion, and they have sales as often as Canadian Tire and Banana Republic so you shouldn't have to pay full price if you're patient.

Calgary Flames 2021-22 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings



*Depth charts were chosen by each team's beat writer at the time of writing, so I believe this roster is from Hailey Salvian on September 29.

Outlook
"The Flames are the league’s most middling team with a point projection closest to average and an expected win percentage closest to .500. The distribution of results above shows exactly what I meant in the lede in terms of best and worst case scenarios. Even for average teams, the likelihood of being exactly that is essentially one-in-four at 23 percent. That leaves a 77 percent chance that the team will be literally anything else. For the Flames, there’s an 18 percent chance they’re a 100-point team or better and a nearly equal chance they’re an 85-point team or worse."

[united]

Personally, I am higher on the Flames than Dom is, and the general market is, mostly due to the Sutter effect. I have posted before about how I think Darryl is one of the best coaches of all-time, and I truly believe that. The Flames are likely to encounter some early season struggles as the team picks up where it left off in becoming tactically fluid in a drastically different system than they have played previously, but once they get going (15-25 games in) I think they will go on a run. Sure, it won't be the most entertaining product for those who long for high-scoring hockey, but it is sure effective when deployed by a tactical mastermind like Sutter.

Here's hoping Markstrom's poor season was indeed caused by his injury as those who aren't afraid to use the smallest of sample sizes quickly point to. I am a bit more skeptical as everything I have read or have worked on myself points to 2,000+ shot sample sizes being the minimum point of forward-looking reliability and that is a sample that predicts near-average goaltending from Markstrom. That said, even with a sufficient sample I have little confidence in my ability, or anyone's ability, to project goaltender performance without large error bars so despite that track record that says "average", maybe the Flames get top-10 - or better - goaltending.

One note on Vladar is Dom's model only uses NHL performance of which Vladar has just 130 minutes of meaning heavy regression to his mean (replacement level?). Using Vladar's AHL experience - which is 15 times larger than his NHL sample - and applying a goaltender NHL-AHL equivalency constant, I get him being just under league average which is more optimistic than Dom's projection.

Not that anyone who has watched Gudbranson needs a model to tell them this, but him playing at all is a blackhole for the Flames. How he got that contract, or any contract other than league minimum, is the largest mystery since the epic alleged Jeff Finger mix-up. Wizardly work by his agent in a position of little perceivable leverage.

Completely agree with Dom on the Flames' centre depth. I have been a huge supporter of Lindholm, and had been recommending the Flames move him to centre for what seemed like an eternity before they finally caved and tried it out to great effect (surprising no one), but being a contender without a top ten two-way centre is very very difficult and I'm afraid as much as I love Lindholm, I don't have him in that tier due to his sub-par neutral zone and transition play (superb all other areas). Monahan has been exhausted at this point but the injury prone centre plays more of a winger's game and despite analytically inclined fans sounding warning alarms about Monahan's one-dimensional skillset and reliance on Gaudreau - and how difficult it is to contend with that type of player as your #1C - since the 2018 off-season, Treliving went all-in on him as #1C in a huge ill-advised gamble - finally they seem to have evaluated him properly which should result in more sheltered minutes fit for his ability. Backlund is a Flames legend and has been so under-appreciated in his career but age comes for everyone so a natural decline is expected, but when and at what speed remains to be determined. In the end, Treliving's casual approach to the importance of the centre ice position could be his ultimate downfall should the Flames falter this season. I remember the excitement when he was first hired until the first season ticket holder event I attended where he laid out his approach to roster construction: Build through defence, then goaltending, then "forwards." I vividly remember taking note of not only his order, but also his use of "forwards" as a whole, but leaving the benefit of the doubt. Unfortunately I heard him repeat essentially the same message a few times the first couple years which really discouraged me, and which is why I have been cautiously warning he isn't the person for the job we hoped for for around half a decade now given his disregard for the premier position in hockey - a fatal flaw. Here we are entering another season in our contention window weak in the most important position in the league which seems to be our GMs biggest blind spot, and the fanbase as a whole seems to have shifted toward him not being the right person to lead the franchise to glory. Let's hope the centre-by-committee approach works for us as it has for pretty much one other team in the past 20 years: Vegas, who leaned on an excellent mobile defensive group to help float their centres - something the Flames no longer have.

I personally think the Flames finish around 96 points but fall short of contention as they just don't have the two-way firepower down the middle of the rink to hang with the heavyweights. Markstrom can really make (or break) the season for the Flames, too: A Vezina-caliber output from him and the Flames can make an Islanders-style playoffs run. I have a fair bit of cash on the Flames' regular season points over which is kind of terrifying but I think it offers tremendous expected value so couldn't not pull the trigger. Boy is it ever setting up to be a very difficult trade deadline and potentially off-season should the Flames perform as expected (mid- to low-range playoff team) but not have Gaudreau's contract sealed by the end of February.

[Huntingwhale]

Whelp, there is is

The Flames are the league’s most middling team with a point projection closest to average and an expected win percentage closest to .500.

If Sutter can get the team to rally around each other and they help Markstrom to shut the door, the team has a good chance as any to compete.

If things fall apart and the 'star' power and depth fail to come through, it's going to get ugly watching this team trying to score. Prepping myself mentally for a lackluster PP once again, and only 1-2 goals per game. 3-4 on a good night.

Sutter is by far the biggest X factor. But he's also one of the best X factor's in the entire league. It will be an interesting team to follow this season, for sure.

[Erick Estrada]

I feel it's a pretty solid prediction. Predicts they won't be as terrible as last season and puts them right in the middle as the most mediocre team in the NHL which I totally agree with. I think too many posters think Sutter is a magician that's going to pull a rabbit out of a hat. He's going to keep them from being terrible but there's no elite talent on the roster and the high end talent is just good enough to keep them above the bad teams.

[calgarygeologist]

I am very pessimistic about this season as I see the Flames as a below average team which will likely look better in the win/loss column than they actually are. A weak division will inflate their stats but won't hide the truth.

[neo45]

Fair analysis IMO thanks for posting. Of course it is missing two-way breakout candidate Oliver Kylington and his upcoming 60 point season

I don’t think Monahan’s bounce back is as important as Markstrom’s or Andersson’s. Sure it would be nice if he could, I just don’t see the season hinging on it.

Rasmus can not be that bad this year and Markstrom needs to be excellent


You can see why people who value analytics are livid at what Brad did to the blue line. Almost 6 million dollars and a third round pick to build literally the worst bottom pair in the entire league analytically

[Wastedyouth]

Pfffffffffffffffffffft.

My common sense is better at predicting this season better than some "Model".

I predict the Flames to be.... thoroughly mediocre.

[FanIn80]

Losing Mark Giordano and not even trying to adequately replace him is a bold move that feels like it will surely blow up in the team’s face. Markstrom wasn’t good last season and his job just got harder.

This.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by neo45

Fair analysis IMO thanks for posting. Of course it is missing two-way breakout candidate Oliver Kylington and his upcoming 60 point season

I don’t think Monahan’s bounce back is as important as Markstrom’s or Andersson’s. Sure it would be nice if he could, I just don’t see the season hinging on it.

Rasmus can not be that bad this year and Markstrom needs to be excellent


You can see why people who value analytics are livid at what Brad did to the blue line. Almost 6 million dollars and a third round pick to build literally the worst bottom pair in the entire league analytically

I agree, and I also think Andersson and Markstrom are more likely to bounce back than Monahan. We're now at this stage with Monahan where we're hoping he bounces back to being a player that wasn't good enough in the first place, which is disappointing.

[kukkudo]

Sounds about right. Markstrom will have to play at a very high level for them to sniff the playoffs.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I agree, and I also think Andersson and Markstrom are more likely to bounce back than Monahan. We're now at this stage with Monahan where we're hoping he bounces back to being a player that wasn't good enough in the first place, which is disappointing.

Hoping Monahan bounces back to almost point per game, scoring 30 goals and that isn't good enough and is disappointing? Sounds like a perfect 2nd line center to me.

[Patek23]

The Flames are the league’s most middling team with a point projection closest to average and an expected win percentage closest to .500.

If that isnt a quote to describe this team over the majority of the 25 years i've been a fan, then I dont know what is.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by united

Not that anyone who has watched Gudbranson needs a model to tell them this, but him playing at all is a blackhole for the Flames. How he got that contract, or any contract other than league minimum, is the largest mystery since the epic alleged Jeff Finger mix-up. Wizardly work by his agent in a position of little perceivable leverage.

Nice one. Similar to that year when Ramo when signed a one year contract for far more than he should have been able to receive on the open market. No long term harm done on a one year deal, but just kind of inexplicable really.

I am also pessimistic on Monahan. But I am hopeful that maybe the injury issues might not hit him this year and a somewhat healthy Monahan, at minimum, is good for the PP and the shootout.

A line of Monahan, Dube and Pitlick is an odd assortment and I'm not too sure what to think about it. If the Flames don't get out of the gates quickly I won't be at all surprised to see Gaudreau and Monahan reunited to try to distribute some scoring.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by chedder

Hoping Monahan bounces back to almost point per game, scoring 30 goals and that isn't good enough and is disappointing? Sounds like a perfect 2nd line center to me.

Ya somewhere along the way, Monahan not becoming an elite two way 1C means he's terrible.

An average two way player with borderline elite finishing ability is a fantastic second line player.

If Monahan and Markstrom are seen as our two biggest weaknesses that gives me hope actually.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by DJones

If Monahan and Markstrom are seen as our two biggest weaknesses that gives me hope actually.

They aren’t though they are keys to success but not the biggest weaknesses. I think it is clear the blueline of this team is highly questionable. Right now I would only say Hanifin and Tanev are legit top 4 guys. Andersson, Zadorov, Valimaki could maybe get there but if one of those top 2 guys goes down this team is in big trouble.

There is still the lack of high end talent. If Gaudreau is able to be a top 10 scorer in the league like he has in the past multiple times that would be nice. It is tough to see in a Sutter system but who knows? If Tkachuk is able to get to a new level and show flashes of being the franchise winger we all thought he was at 21 that would also help.

Markstrom being healthy and playing well is truly a key to being a competitive team that makes the playoffs. If Monahan can get back to the 30 goal 60pt guy he has been many seasons times in the past then This team all of a sudden has depth up the middle and secondary scoring. Another key to win.

Monahan and Markstrom are keys to success but when talking about our biggest weakness it would be the lack of top end talent and a questionable blueline that is as weak as it has been on paper since pre 05 lockout.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by DJones

Ya somewhere along the way, Monahan not becoming an elite two way 1C means he's terrible.

An average two way player with borderline elite finishing ability is a fantastic second line player.

If Monahan and Markstrom are seen as our two biggest weaknesses that gives me hope actually.

Monahan largely has always been a one trick pony. He's a finisher. He's been bad defensively for years, but has been able to outscore his issues. So my criticism isn't targeted at Monahan because he's not an elite two way 1C, it's more that he's bad defensively and having a centre that's bad defensively is really hard to overcome for a line.

Him returning to a strong offensive game would be a huge help, but I think there's good reason to believe that while separated from Johnny he won't be able to produce at the level needed to outperform his defensive woes.

I'm hopeful, but there's plenty of reason for concern/plenty of questions around what he can do well when he's not scoring.

[Winsor_Pilates]

They nailed it.
All they really had to say was "middling"

[dissentowner]

You just knew the pessimistic posters on this board were going to come out in droves when they saw the OP. Here comes 20 pages of doom and gloom....

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You just knew the pessimistic posters on this board were going to come out in droves when they saw the OP. Here comes 20 pages of doom and gloom....

I know, it's weird that many Flames fans have come to expect "doom and gloom"

I can't figure out why

[kukkudo]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You just knew the pessimistic posters on this board were going to come out in droves when they saw the OP. Here comes 20 pages of doom and gloom....

Meh, its reality team has been mediocre for 25 plus years. Just go with the flow and hope the Flames can make the postseason and win a round.