[CP Story] Deep Dive: Markstrom's Rollercoaster Season

[Bingo]

I dig into Markstrom's season.

- how he's faired in terms of high, medium and low danger shots compared to the last two years in Vancouver
- how the team defense looks as a comparison
- how Markstrom has done before the Pearson charge, after the injury and with Sutter in place

Deep Dive: Markstrom's Rollercoaster Season

[ComixZone]

The Flames are behind the eight ball to make the playoffs, and if they have any hope it has to come from Markstrom.

Yeah, Markstrom is a key player so he has to deliver. He's got to get himself back on track, but I almost wonder if he's still battling an injury issue...

Also, at the same time - this team is providing Markstrom absolutely no run support - which could possibly be a bit of a mental strain on our goalies (not just Markstrom). It is interesting to see that his LDS% during 5v5 has remained elite, but takes quite a hit during the PK - significantly below what he's delivered over the past few seasons.

Flames are scoring at 2.69 GF/G, good for 22nd (hey, the bottom third...how familiar). It completely invalidates the data set, but if we pull out the 7-3 and 6-3 laughers against the Senators that were entirely because Matt Murray was total junk - we drop to 2.43, good for 6th last. When the team is providing the 22nd best offensive production in a 31 league team, it's an uphill battle for the goalies right from the get go. We effectively need Markstrom to deliver top-5 goaltending for us to be competitive if the offensive production doesn't improve.

Under Sutter, we're averaging 2.67 GF/G (slightly worse than the full-season average), and allowing 2.83 GA/G which is a more notable improvement on the full-season average (3.00 GA/G)...which I guess is to say, the team just isn't very good and I think almost every piece of data shows that the team just isn't very good, and the players on the team aren't playing very good (Markstrom included).

At the start of the season, with Markstrom it looked like we'd finally solved a problem...but it has become quite murky since. I'm pretty confident he'll bounce back, but I still struggle to find hope with the team as a whole.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Yeah, Markstrom is a key player so he has to deliver. He's got to get himself back on track, but I almost wonder if he's still battling an injury issue...

Also, at the same time - this team is providing Markstrom absolutely no run support - which could possibly be a bit of a mental strain on our goalies (not just Markstrom). It is interesting to see that his LDS% during 5v5 has remained elite, but takes quite a hit during the PK - significantly below what he's delivered over the past few seasons.

Flames are scoring at 2.69 GF/G, good for 22nd (hey, the bottom third...how familiar). It completely invalidates the data set, but if we pull out the 7-3 and 6-3 laughers against the Senators that were entirely because Matt Murray was total junk - we drop to 2.43, good for 6th last. When the team is providing the 22nd best offensive production in a 31 league team, it's an uphill battle for the goalies right from the get go. We effectively need Markstrom to deliver top-5 goaltending for us to be competitive if the offensive production doesn't improve.

Under Sutter, we're averaging 2.67 GF/G (slightly worse than the full-season average), and allowing 2.83 GA/G which is a more notable improvement on the full-season average (3.00 GA/G)...which I guess is to say, the team just isn't very good and I think almost every piece of data shows that the team just isn't very good, and the players on the team aren't playing very good (Markstrom included).

At the start of the season, with Markstrom it looked like we'd finally solved a problem...but it has become quite murky since. I'm pretty confident he'll bounce back, but I still struggle to find hope with the team as a whole.

But doesn't' Rittich have better numbers with way less run support? The Flames have only scored about 2 goals per game with him in net. And if you exclude the 7-3 win, it goes down to 1.6 goals per game.

Rittich deserves credit. He has an above average save percentage. Markstrom has a below average save percentage. Many of Rittich's games were when the Flames were playing badly. More than half his games have been against Toronto and Edmonton (two of the highest scoring teams).

Markstrom looks like he still needs a bit of time. Maybe he has a lingering injury, maybe he's tired. Whathever it is, he seems overplayed.

I think the team should be more willing to play Rittich.

Also, great article by Bingo. It's nice to put numbers behind what we see on the ice.

[GreenLantern2814]

He hasn’t been the same since he got blown up against the Canucks.

I’m sure he’ll be fine long term, but it’s set him back huge this year.

[powderjunkie]

IIRC, F Andersen had slightly better simple stats than JM for the 4 seasons before last, in front of similarly porous teams.

I certainly prefer JM, but expectations seem unrealistic to me.

Just as Johnny isn’t a perennial 99 pt player, there is little reason to believe JM will be a perennial Vezina finalist...


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[Wastedyouth]

Goalies = Voodoo.

You never know what you are gonna get.

[afc wimbledon]

as I recall in Vancouver they never left Markstrom in on long runs, they always played the back up regularly, even if the team was struggling, I dont think he's a goalie that does well without regular breaks

[EVERLAST]

Regardless of the numbers I cannot imagine what he Tanev and Leivo must have talked about since the start of the season.....

New team
F ing COVID-19
2 coaches
Top players AREN'T performing
The locker room has to be a weird place right now ....undisclosed dysfunction!!

I can't imagine what Jacobs #s look like if Tanev isn't here .....he's our MVP right now.

Damn I'm impressed by those 2 on this team.

Hopefully things under Sutter Calm down and some consistency, an identity and culture reveals itself an damn soon.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

as I recall in Vancouver they never left Markstrom in on long runs, they always played the back up regularly, even if the team was struggling, I dont think he's a goalie that does well without regular breaks

I am not sure this is true:

Between 10–23 December 2019 Markstrom started eight straight games, including two in two days. Then between 29 January–12 February 2020 he started seven of eight, sitting only for the back-to-back. In that time between 10 December–12 February Markstrom started 23/27 games.

Since arriving in Calgary the most games Markstrom has started without a break is seven.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I am not sure this is true:

Between 10–23 December 2019 Markstrom started eight straight games, including two in two days. Then between 29 January–12 February 2020 he started seven of eight, sitting only for the back-to-back. In that time between 10 December–12 February Markstrom started 23/27 games.

Since arriving in Calgary the most games Markstrom has started without a break is seven.

maybe its just my sense of things, Demko played 27 games and Markstrom 43 which was a decent number of games for the back up, it felt like he played alot!!!

[DeluxeMoustache]

It’s becoming clear that the problem is the 6x6. It’s a cursed structure

Think about it. x is the 24th letter of the alphabet. Add the digits together... 6
6x6 is known to be disastrous wherever it pops up

It’s the devil’s business we are talking about here.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

It’s becoming clear that the problem is the 6x6. It’s a cursed structure

Think about it. x is the 24th letter of the alphabet. Add the digits together... 6
6x6 is known to be disastrous wherever it pops up

It’s the devil’s business we are talking about here.

“If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull####.” ― W.C. Fields.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Isn't the numbers with Rittich similiar with those of Markstrom in terms of the "Saving the high danger chances" but trouble on the rest?


Could be a systemic issue going on.


I personally think they have just played Markstrom a bit too much. Also to note, at the start of the year, Flames were very unlucky and were scoring on Markstrom themselves rather than the other team. I bet some of those medium and low chances came off of that, right? I figure that the stats wouldn't change the shot location even if it ended up deflecting off of Calgary's players butts.


Hopefully he (and the team!) can start getting better numbers overall to finish this season off.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by calgary4life

isn't the numbers with rittich similiar with those of markstrom in terms of the "saving the high danger chances" but trouble on the rest?


Could be a systemic issue going on.


I personally think they have just played markstrom a bit too much. Also to note, at the start of the year, flames were very unlucky and were scoring on markstrom themselves rather than the other team. I bet some of those medium and low chances came off of that, right? I figure that the stats wouldn't change the shot location even if it ended up deflecting off of calgary's players butts.


Hopefully he (and the team!) can start getting better numbers overall to finish this season off.

16-7?

[DeluxeMoustache]

I’d be interested to see Markstrom behind various D pairings

Seemed like early in the year, Nesterov and Valimaki were being exposed, and pretty much all year now, with the exception of a game here and there , 4 and 5 are really struggling

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by timbit

“If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull####.” ― W.C. Fields.

I think most people likely, when you bring up 6x6 contracts, can think of some... You do recall another franchise known for 6x6s, yes? And how they worked out?

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

It’s becoming clear that the problem is the 6x6. It’s a cursed structure

Think about it. x is the 24th letter of the alphabet. Add the digits together... 6
6x6 is known to be disastrous wherever it pops up

It’s the devil’s business we are talking about here.

Fun fact. Oilers only signed one 6x6 contract. I’m unsure why it became the meme.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Fun fact. Oilers only signed one 6x6 contract. I’m unsure why it became the meme.

True. They gave Hall 7 years.. I think it was because for the next 6 years they had players locked up for 6 (?)

[CSharp]

I think Markstrom is fine. However, I still feel Tre makes as many bad mistakes as he makes some awesome moves. His fascination with a top end goalie to win it all for this team will, in the end, cost him and this team. It's never been about the goalies or the sub-par coaches in the last 5 years. It's been the gaping holes throughout their whole 4 forward lines and part of the D. It's a never-ending story of lacking something somewhere with the Flames. Sutter GM era - lacking the #1 centerman, totally lacking backup goalie, and greedy on defence; Feaster - lacking size; Tre - always in search of a goalie, lacking grit, lacking right shot depth for forwards and D. It's like a GM never learns self-control on one particular position and never go full ###### on one thing. It's like don't people take the advice from Kirk Lazarus of Tropic Thunder? It's like now that he's got the goaltending situation solved for the time being, what's there to do in the time being?

[Psytic]

Its the team. They make most goalies lose confidence over time. Then they start second guessing how far out they need to be or if the defender will have the pass across etc. Little things like that. Getting blown out every 3rd or 4th game doesn't help either. Talbot and Smith both look pretty good since leaving.