ELC RFA analysis 40% of a season later

[ricardodw]

The recently unprecedented huge long term contracts has a somewhat significant time to set in.

There were a dozen 22 or younger guys that were given pretty much franchise player contracts that used to be given out only to clearly exceptional players.

Would this dozen get better or worse offers if the ELC was 4 years rather than 3?

What GM's won and what player agents won?


Pretty sure that San Jose is getting a bit worried about Meier and his 10M qualifying offer.


Is Brayden Point a 9-10M 90-100 pt player or has the league caught up to him? His personal point totals is cut down as the Lightning are playing a bigger more defensive style.

Laine is putting up ppg with a lot more assist than goals. He was on the way to being a 10-12M / season goal scorer but has come back as a better bigger team player.... does that cost him $$

Here is a list of the guys that got the big bucks in their first ELC year and/or set up their Qualifying offers to be in the top 2-3 cap hits on their teams when their bridge deals are done.

While it does not always show the true value of a hockey player the ppg is what overwhelming drives the salaries paid. I have the ppg they had in their first RFA to what they are putting up after signing the big contracts.


player | team | yrs @ cap | QO | 2018-19 | 2019-20 | delta

Mitch Marner | TOR | 6 @ 10.89 | UFA | 1.15 | 1.09 | -0.06

Mikko Rantanen | COL | 6 @ 9.25 | UFA | 1.18 | 1.29 | 0.11

Kyle Connor | WPG | 7 @ 7.14 | UFA | 0.80 | 0.91 | 0.11

Sebastian Aho | CAR | 5 @ 8.45 | UFA | 1.01 | 0.91 | -0.10

Ivan Provorov | PHI | 6 @ 6.75 | UFA | 0.32 | 0.61 | 0.29

Timo Meier | S.J | 4 @ 6.00 | 10.0 | 0.85 | 0.63 | -0.22

Matthew Tkachuk | CGY | 3 @ 7.00 | 9.0 | 0.96 | 0.79 | -0.17

Brayden Point | TB | 3 @ 6.75 | 9.0 | 1.16 | 0.82 | -0.34

Brock Boeser | VAN | 3 @ 5.88 | 7.5 | 0.81 | 0.94 | 0.13

Zach Werenski | CBJ | 3 @ 5.00 | 7.0 | 0.54 | 0.62 | 0.08

Charlie Mcavoy | BOS | 3 @ 4.90 | 7.3 | 0.52 | 0.35 | -0.17

Patrik Laine | WPG | 2 @ 6.75 | 7.5 | 0.61 | 1.00 | 0.39

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

...Is Brayden Point a 9-10M 90-100 pt player or has the league caught up to him? His personal point totals is cut down as the Lightning are playing a bigger more defensive style...

You think TB is playing a "bigger more defensive style"? They have plummeted from 7th to 27th in GA/GP. I haven't watched them yet this year, but if this is in fact what they are doing, it sure as hell is not working.

As for the numbers you have provided, I think they are interesting, but don't know what useful conclusions can be drawn @ the 35-game mark. None of these players will be signing a new deal next year, and all but Laine has at least another two years beyond 2020 to generate a return on the team's investment. Most of them look to be right in range with what was expected for them heading into the season.

[Northendzone]

i have been told from someone very knowledgeable that cooper has been wanting the lightning to play more "heavy" this season in order to prevent what happened against Columbus from repeating.

personally, i think it is a mistake to move away from your strengths as a team, but what do i know the highest level i ever coached was bantam and i was only head coach for half a season.

for point specifically, he missed TC and started the season a bit later due to an injury. to me the tru test for him will be next season.

my friends in wpg tell me laine is playing a more complete game

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

i have been told from someone very knowledgeable that cooper has been wanting the lightning to play more "heavy" this season in order to prevent what happened against Columbus from repeating.

personally, i think it is a mistake to move away from your strengths as a team, but what do i know the highest level i ever coached was bantam and i was only head coach for half a season...

I completely agree with you, and moreover I question how reliable a four-game sample size can be to making an informed decision. There are just so many factors to account for in how a team wins or loses in a playoff series, and it seems foolhardy to me for a team that just recorded the best season in 25-years to make any changes at all because of a four game set that occurred at the worst time of the year.