GT: 2018 US Midterm Elections

[Red Slinger]

I thought we could use a separate thread for the election exit polls, news and results rather than (additionally) clutter the US Politics Thread.

7 Key races to watch: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/key-...ry?id=58436796

FiveThirtyEight election forecasts: https://fivethirtyeight.com/

[Red Slinger]

Senate Forecast from fivethirtyeight:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/

If I'm reading this right the most likely outcome is 51 R, 49 D.

House Forecast:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orecast/house/

Most likely is 234 D, 201 R

Governors:
This is important because they can largely influence not only policy on a national level but also things like Gerrymandering.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...cast/governor/

195 million people are likely to be governed by D, 134 million likely to be governed by R.

[Senator Clay Davis]

The only place you really need to go tonight for results

https://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot

[nik-]

I've got a sinking feeling about today's election.

[DuffMan]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

Governors:
This is important because they can largely influence not only policy on a national level but also things like Gerrymandering.

195 million people are likely to be governed by D, 134 million likely to be governed by R.

Saw a panel last night where Santorum was saying everything was beyond fantastic, because with the Dems holding the house, now Trump will have someone to blame for all the failures.

David Axelrod mentioned how overlooked and important the governors were for just those reasons you mentioned, and that they will have a far bigger impact than what people are talking about.

[direwolf]

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by nik-

I've got a sinking feeling about today's election.

Same. I think we're conditioned to be disappointed by American politics.

[Bunk]

five thirty eight is the best. Solid data aggregation, good analysis, great presentation.

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

Senate Forecast from fivethirtyeight:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/

If I'm reading this right the most likely outcome is 51 R, 49 D.

House Forecast:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...orecast/house/

Most likely is 234 D, 201 R

Governors:
This is important because they can largely influence not only policy on a national level but also things like Gerrymandering.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...cast/governor/

195 million people are likely to be governed by D, 134 million likely to be governed by R.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Same. I think we're conditioned to be disappointed by American politics.

Fool me once

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Same. I think we're conditioned to be disappointed by American politics.

The special election results throughout the year give some reason for optimism.

It kinda sucks though that dems need to win the vote by 9-10% to get majorities in any of the 3 levels.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Fool me once

Naw, watching elections around the world in various countries and various topics should give you no confidence whatsoever.

[MacDaddy77]

Brother-in-law works for Walz so hope he takes Minnesota tonight. maybe I'll get good seats at Vikings game next thanksgiving when we go down to visit

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

It kinda sucks though that dems need to win the vote by 9-10% to get majorities in any of the 3 levels.

I think it's actually 6-7%. A 9-10% would be a large majority in the House and probably put the senate in play. IIRC 9-10% is the level where the gerrymandering starts to backfire.

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

Governors:
This is important because they can largely influence not only policy on a national level but also things like Gerrymandering.

Yes, this is an important year to hold (or at least split) state offices because this term of governors will be the term in which the census is held IIRC.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Florida Races:

538 is currently predicting a 7 in 10 chance of a Bill Nelson (D) win over former Governor Rick Scott (R). Nelson is the incumbent.

They also predict a 7 in 9 chance of Andrew Gillum (D) winning over Trump acolyte Ron DeSantis (R) for Governor.

God, I've never wanted to believe in poll numbers more than I do right now.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by DuffMan

Saw a panel last night where Santorum was saying everything was beyond fantastic, because with the Dems holding the house, now Trump will have someone to blame for all the failures.

David Axelrod mentioned how overlooked and important the governors were for just those reasons you mentioned, and that they will have a far bigger impact than what people are talking about.

I saw that - in a sense I thought both were right. Santorum framed it as ideal - it's not that, but it will give Trump a narrative that he will no doubt use - and it may to be his won 2020 advantage given how electorates swing back and forth.

Axelrod was also right that it will have material impacts on the presidency that will be detrimental. His point about governors was bang on.

[DuffMan]

Originally Posted by nik-

I've got a sinking feeling about today's election.

Why you got to be like that nik?

[DuffMan]

Originally Posted by Bunk

I saw that - in a sense I thought both were right. Santorum framed it as ideal - it's not that, but it will give Trump a narrative that he will no doubt use - and it may to be his won 2020 advantage given how electorates swing back and forth.

I kind of think Trumps blaming everyone but himself, for anything schtick is starting to wear thin at this point. I mean, Jeff Sessions will probably be fired by the end of the week, and he is a Trump Humper maximus.

[Huntingwhale]

Maybe a political nerd here could please ELI5 to those of us who aren't very familiar what is happening today. Obviously American politics are being shoved down our throats constantly every day. But I'm no expert on the various levels of US government and what the implications are.

If I understand correctly, Americans can vote during these midterms for representatives of the House and Senate? However from what I've read, it's more likely the Democrats could win the House but not the Senate? What exactly is the difference? And why is one more likely then the other and what does this mean going forward? Do these kind of elections occur every 2 years? Or every 4 years, but 2 years apart from the main elections?

If the Democrats win, how exactly does this give them more power when a Republican like Trump is still in power? What can they actually do?

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by DuffMan

I kind of think Trumps blaming everyone but himself, for anything schtick is starting to wear thin at this point. I mean, Jeff Sessions will probably be fired by the end of the week, and he is a Trump Humper maximus.

Yeah that's the thing... if Trump blaming Democrats for things is actually a salient point in his favor then the GOP just won't lose the House (because he already does that).

My Prediction: A very good (but not really great) night for Democrats. They take the House, and many (but not as many as 538 has them) state governorship and fall just short in the Senate (either 50-50 with Pence becoming the tiebreaker or stand pat 49-51).

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by DuffMan

I kind of think Trumps blaming everyone but himself, for anything schtick is starting to wear thin at this point. I mean, Jeff Sessions will probably be fired by the end of the week, and he is a Trump Humper maximus.

Lindsey Graham will definitely get Sessions' job. Dude is so far up Trump's arse at this point, there's no turning back for him now. He's fully on board the MAGA train.