Wedded to a Welfare State

[HOZ]

What does it take to persuade the citizens of "enlightened" social democracies that sometimes you've got to give up the benefits cheque? Guardian and Independent types have had great sport with America over the last couple of weeks, gleefully citing the wreckage of New Orleans as a savage indictment of the "selfishness" of capitalism.

The argument they make is usually a moral one - that there's something better and more compassionate about us all sharing the burden as a community. But the election results in Germany and elsewhere suggest that, in fact, nothing makes a citizen more selfish than lavish welfare and that once he's enjoying the fruits thereof he couldn't give a hoot about the broader societal interest. "Social democracy" turns out to be explicitly anti-social




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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jh...9/20/do2002.xml

[Agamemnon]

A third of Germans under 30 think the United States government was responsible for the terrorist attacks of September 11.

While the unemployment, real estate and car sales may be reversible, that last number suggests the German electorate isn't necessarily the group you'd want to pitch a rational argument to.

Looks like some pretty heavy political bias in the article. Apparently believing the 9/11 is connected to US foreign policy makes you 'nutty', according to this author.

What a coincidence. I think he's a nut.

Old obdurate Leftists can argue about which system is "better", but at a certain point it becomes irrelevant: by 2050, there will be more and wealthier Americans, and fewer and poorer Europeans.

Right... trying find a 'better' or 'best' system is irrelevant, because he who dies with the most toys wins. The author makes several long range presumptions (like that Germany will have half it's population by the end of this century), assuming a completely stagnant and unchanging international political and social atmosphere.

Because massive change over the course of a century is unheard of.

The dumbest part of the article is how the author consistently tries to link a frauding Frenchmen with the attitude and actions of Germany. I could find a dumb idiot who makes brutal mistakes and link him to US foreign policy, but what's the point?

Pure opinion peice.

[HOZ]

Originally posted by Agamemnon@Oct 1 2005, 03:13 PM


Pure opinion peice.

Why yes it is....

[Agamemnon]

Originally posted by HOZ@Oct 1 2005, 03:18 PM
Why yes it is....

Ah... for some reason I thought you were trying to espouse or defend his point of view, assuming you posted the article to generate discussion.

[HOZ]

The patheticness of Europe stands as endictment in itself.

Germany's economy and population and ultimately it's culture and society is in decline...like the rest of OLD EUROPE. Other than England, no major innovation has come from Europe. Quite sad.

And as you say a radical change could happen. Thatcher was there for England. France, and Germany are waiting for their's. They need it.

[Agamemnon]

Originally posted by HOZ@Oct 1 2005, 03:30 PM
Germany's economy and population and ultimately it's culture and society is in decline...like the rest of OLD EUROPE. Other than England, no major innovation has come from Europe. Quite sad.

That'd be an interesting theory, if you had any real, specific evidence to say that Germany's 'culture and society' are in decline. As for 'no innovation has come from Europe', this statement is too broad to even be coherent. Do you mean cultural innovations? Automobile innovations? Sausage innovations?

Why would you ever quote Donald Rumsfeld? The guy is destined to go down as a fool according to all sides. Why not pick guys like Wolfowitz to follow around? At least then you gain some immediate intellectual legitimacy, and his articles would be a 100 times better than the tripe that begins this thread.

[HOZ]

Originally posted by Agamemnon@Oct 1 2005, 03:37 PM
That'd be an interesting theory, if you had any real, specific evidence to say that Germany's 'culture and society' are in decline. As for 'no innovation has come from Europe', this statement is too broad to even be coherent. Do you mean cultural innovations? Automobile innovations? Sausage innovations?

Why would you ever quote Donald Rumsfeld? The guy is destined to go down as a fool according to all sides. Why not pick guys like Wolfowitz to follow around? At least then you gain some immediate intellectual legitimacy, and his articles would be a 100 times better than the tripe that begins this thread.

If my argument is so ridiculous...why not refute it?

What innovations have come from Europe, other than England, in the past decade?

As well, can you prove that (Old Western) Europes population isn't in decline. Without massive influx of immigrants (as well as the fact the immigrant reproduction is 2-3 times higher than that of the original inhabibitants) their populations would be in the minus? I think that will be difficult.

A population that is disappearing is a culture disappearing......

[Agamemnon]

Originally posted by HOZ@Oct 1 2005, 03:43 PM
If my argument is so ridiculous...why not refute it?

What innovations have come from Europe, other than England, in the past decade?

As well, can you prove that (Old Western) Europes population isn't in decline. Without massive influx of immigrants (as well as the fact the immigrant reproduction is 2-3 times higher than that of the original inhabibitants) their populations would be in the minus? I think that will be difficult.

A population that is disappearing is a culture disappearing......

I see. You lay down an incoherent, undeveloped, and flippant 'theory' on the decline of the 'culture and society' of Europe, but instead of addressing and explaining your thoughts, it's on others to disprove it before you even try to prove it.

Well, how about this. I 'believe' your theory is full of shinguard. I have no evidence to support my position, which should counter and compliment your lack of evidence nicely.

You seriously think Germany is disappearing because of lack of population growth? I haven't heard a lot of fear out of Germany that their way of life is disappearing... maybe they don't know it yet because you haven't quite fleshed out your thoughts on the subject.

[Claeren]

Didn't Germany absorb an entire third world nation like 15 years ago?

Kind of makes sense that there would be a period where things plateau for a bit after the intial period of absorption and upheaval.


Claeren.

[peter12]

ermany's economy and population and ultimately it's culture and society is in decline...like the rest of OLD EUROPE. Other than England, no major innovation has come from Europe. Quite sad

Seriously HOZ, what the hell is this sort of statement supposed to mean? Quite sad.

[Claeren]

Originally posted by peter12@Oct 1 2005, 01:35 PM
ermany's economy and population and ultimately it's culture and society is in decline...like the rest of OLD EUROPE. Other than England, no major innovation has come from Europe. Quite sad

Seriously HOZ, what the hell is this sort of statement supposed to mean? Quite sad.

Plus it is pretty funny when you think he is saying by default that American culture is entering some renaissance or is something to envy by comparison.

Nailed it this time, every non-American secretly wants to be an American and drink lots of Coca-Cola!



Claeren.

[peter12]

Originally posted by Claeren@Oct 1 2005, 02:55 PM
Plus it is pretty funny when you think he is saying by default that American culture is entering some renaissance or is something to envy by comparison.

Nailed it this time, every non-American secretly wants to be an American and drink lots of Coca-Cola!



Claeren.

Yeah, the Great American re-descent into 1950's style democracy, blacklists and housewives. Good times.

Seriously... why is the UK (or England more specifically because apparently Scotland and Wales are useless) get the only nod?

What about Ireland, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Poland etc etc...?

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally posted by peter12@Oct 1 2005, 02:58 PM

What about Ireland, Denmark, the Czech Republic, Poland etc etc...?

They, of course, are New Europe. Just got there.

[CaramonLS]

Originally posted by Claeren@Oct 1 2005, 04:56 PM
Didn't Germany absorb an entire third world nation like 15 years ago?

Kind of makes sense that there would be a period where things plateau for a bit after the intial period of absorption and upheaval.


Claeren.

That was exactly my point I was going to make. It is going to take some time for the economy to start back up, especially in the former parts of East Germany.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4205086.stm

Here is a good article from the BBC which looks at the German Economy.

Unification 15 years ago resulted in a classic boom and bust.

Billions of Deutschmarks were spent to restore the East's infrastructure.

When the money began to run out whole industries imploded and unemployment soared.

You gotta give it some time HOZ, I know you are as right wing as they come, but this is clearly not an example where social democrary has failed.

[HOZ]

Originally posted by Agamemnon@Oct 1 2005, 03:51 PM
I see. You lay down an incoherent, undeveloped, and flippant 'theory' on the decline of the 'culture and society' of Europe, but instead of addressing and explaining your thoughts, it's on others to disprove it before you even try to prove it.

Well, how about this. I 'believe' your theory is full of shinguard. I have no evidence to support my position, which should counter and compliment your lack of evidence nicely.

You seriously think Germany is disappearing because of lack of population growth? I haven't heard a lot of fear out of Germany that their way of life is disappearing... maybe they don't know it yet because you haven't quite fleshed out your thoughts on the subject.

Jeeezuz murphy. Again the world just revolves around you doesn't it? I mean....Since you haven't heard of it, obviously it hasn't happened.


So my "theory" is BS? It's not a theory but a statement of fact. Germany's population is in decline. It's birthrate is not keeping up with it's mortality rate. You have said yourself you don't have anything to prove this wrong...yet I am wrong duue to the lack of evidence. Evidence that can be had by a simple google search.

Population

In contrast to the native population, foreigners in Germany tend to have more children and larger households. In 1988 their average household size was 3.5 persons. Depending upon their origins and social status, foreigners in Germany have been integrated into society in widely varying degrees.

Fertility

Age-Gender distribution
If present trends continue, forecasts indicate that by 2030 as much as 28 percent of Germany's population will be elderly, and there will be a 1:1 ratio between pensioners and workers.

Immigration
Just so you can say you heard it
In an opinion poll taken in 1982, two-thirds of West Germans said that there were too many foreigners in Germany, and one-half thought that foreigners should be sent back to their countries of origin. In 1992 another poll found that the "foreigner problem" ranked as the most serious issue for western Germans and was third in importance for eastern Germans.

[tripin_billie]

Anyone who thinks that Germany, and Germans haven't made a major cultural contribution in the last century is off his/her rocker. Honestly, Germany has been the source of some of the greatest (and worst) minds of the past 100 years. Take away my Herman Hesse, Thomas Mann, Franz Kafka (wrtoe in German), Albert Einstein, Fritz Lang, and others and I am a very sad person. To say German is a culture in decline is a joke, seeming that even German language is on the rise as the strenght of the EU grows.

Oh, yeah, and one thing that Germany has that North America is lacking is the sense that everyone is entitled, if they have been working, to a vacation that includes travel.

North Americans in general work far too many hours for far too little return. And if you expect me to work until I'm 70 for my pention, you can go and fata off.

edit: some of the rhetoric in that first article is distubingly close to the extreme nationalist sentiments that led to the First World War, the Second, and genocide. I'm half expecting to see a follow up article explaining the virtues of pro-natal policies for fighting the onslaught of the foreing masses. Neo-Cons seem hellbent on attempting to to return to already demonstrated to be disasterous policies. Yikes

[HOZ]

Originally posted by CaramonLS@Oct 2 2005, 02:46 AM




I know you are as right wing as they come,

You know nothing about me. Don't pretend you do. Considering that I have voted twice for the Liberals and twice for the conservatives I would think it would be very difficult to say I am a RIGHT WING. In those questionaires that pop up here that are suppose to place us in the political spectrum I have continuously ended up left of centre.


As for Germany. I didn't think anyone could keep a decade long recession going like the Japanese, in a stubborn refusal to reform their economy. But low and behold the Germans look to be one-upping Japan. This last election was a chance for them to vote for reform and devest themselves of all the vested interests and entitlements that their economy has been saddled with. The German populace chose the status quo. 4 more years of stagnation with a declining population. Which means fewer and fewer people have to pay more and more.

The absorbtion of East Germany certainly didn't help. The straw that broke the camel's back if you may. A strong West German economy was already having trouble paying for it's welfare state. Add East Germany to the mix and the German economy came apart at the seams.

[Thunderball]

I definitely wouldn't phrase it in the ways the author does and take such a militant stance... but Germany is definitely in a lot of trouble. I've studied European Politics in great detail and had numerous discussions with my Grandfather who is a German national, political and historical buff, and watches international news such as BBC and Deutche Welle. He hears things that we normally don't hear in the mainstream, and yeah, Germany is in a lot of trouble. This recent election actually broke the mold on what seemed to be the most well thought up electoral system because the citizens don't know what they want for themselves.

You have an aging population being inundated with largely uneducated and unskilled migrants from Turkey and the Middle East, stagnating economics due to national policies, limited resources, environmental reforms and increasing social needs. Something has to give. It may be the social safety hammock in Germany. They might not be able to have what smaller European republics have... it would be very hard for a nation approaching 100 million people in a land size smaller than Alberta to accomplish. A couple steps to the right would do Germany wonders, or should I say, a couple steps towards centre.

[Agamemnon]

Originally posted by HOZ@Oct 2 2005, 06:50 AM
Jeeezuz murphy. Again the world just revolves around you doesn't it? I mean....Since you haven't heard of it, obviously it hasn't happened.


So my "theory" is BS? It's not a theory but a statement of fact. Germany's population is in decline. It's birthrate is not keeping up with it's mortality rate. You have said yourself you don't have anything to prove this wrong...yet I am wrong duue to the lack of evidence. Evidence that can be had by a simple google search.

Population

In contrast to the native population, foreigners in Germany tend to have more children and larger households. In 1988 their average household size was 3.5 persons. Depending upon their origins and social status, foreigners in Germany have been integrated into society in widely varying degrees.

Fertility

Age-Gender distribution
If present trends continue, forecasts indicate that by 2030 as much as 28 percent of Germany's population will be elderly, and there will be a 1:1 ratio between pensioners and workers.

Immigration
Just so you can say you heard it
In an opinion poll taken in 1982, two-thirds of West Germans said that there were too many foreigners in Germany, and one-half thought that foreigners should be sent back to their countries of origin. In 1992 another poll found that the "foreigner problem" ranked as the most serious issue for western Germans and was third in importance for eastern Germans.

Ah, I see. I hadn't realized you equated the decline in German 'culture and society' with their decline in population. The two, unless you believe the Germans are rapidly going extinct, are unrelated. I don't need any facts here, because the ones you quote have nothing to do with your initial premise. All this proves is that, as is WELL KNOWN, population rates decline in 'first world' countries, and have been all over the place. Sweden is experiencing negative population growth, I suppose their society and culture is also disappearing. What bunk.

Sorry, only a total fool would see slight population decline in the largest country in Europe and conclude that their civilization is on the downward trend.

If it wasn't for immigration, Canada would have negative growth.

[Cowperson]

Originally posted by Agamemnon@Oct 2 2005, 08:02 AM
Ah, I see. I hadn't realized you equated the decline in German 'culture and society' with their decline in population. The two, unless you believe the Germans are rapidly going extinct, are unrelated. I don't need any facts here, because the ones you quote have nothing to do with your initial premise. All this proves is that, as is WELL KNOWN, population rates decline in 'first world' countries, and have been all over the place. Sweden is experiencing negative population growth, I suppose their society and culture is also disappearing. What bunk.

Sorry, only a total fool would see slight population decline in the largest country in Europe and conclude that their civilization is on the downward trend.

If it wasn't for immigration, Canada would have negative growth.

I don't know about the decline of civilization but an aging and eventually declining population will certainly ratchet up pressure to reduce the cost of social benefits if Germany wants to continue to be competitive in the global economy.

An interesting article:

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04333/417837.stm

If I'm not mistaken, social benefits in Sweden have been reduced as well. . . . its not like they're Bangladeshis or something but Sweden has adjusted from its peak social benefits period:

http://www.sweden.se/templates/cs/Article____2891.aspx

The trend is there . . . . but I don't think it means Germans are going to become Americans in the end like Hoz is implying.

It's pretty easy for politicians to hand these carrots out . . . . . but death to try and reel them in.

Cowperson