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Old 11-04-2018, 08:52 PM   #1
FlamesAddiction
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Default The Points Per Game Standard

It's still early in the season, but there are like 70 players right now on pace to be PPG players (or within spitting distance). Last year there were 30 that finished close to a PPG, or better. The two years before there were 10. And the year before that (2014-2015), there were less than 10.

I expect things to normalize a little this season (70 players being at around a PPG seems unsustainable), but the general trend the past few seasons has been that more players are reaching what used to be the primary benchmark for what defines an elite offensive player.

I think this is going to make for some really difficult contract negotiations in the future as players will want to use that stat and comparison to players who achieved that benchmark back when it was more rare.

Are players that much more skilled now? Are the rules and how they are enforced leading to these numbers? Or maybe a combination of both?
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Old 11-04-2018, 08:56 PM   #2
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We're going to be paying the **** out of Tkachuk, I assume. Still amazing to have a player of his caliber, a good problem. But man, the stars are aligning for the biggest contract in franchise history by a wide margin.
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Old 11-04-2018, 09:04 PM   #3
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How many players were >1 PPG at this point in the season last year? It seems like there are always lots of players that overachieve in October. That doesn't mean they will be maintaining it throughout the season.
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Old 11-04-2018, 09:05 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by pseudoreality View Post
How many players were >1 PPG at this point in the season last year? It seems like there are always lots of players that overachieve in October. That doesn't mean they will be maintaining it throughout the season.

October point streaks tend to be more noticeable precisely because they are at the beginning of the season, so it's the only stats to go by.


If a player finishes the season PPG but was only .8 or something during the season, no one pays much attention.
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Old 11-04-2018, 09:10 PM   #5
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How many players were >1 PPG at this point in the season last year? It seems like there are always lots of players that overachieve in October. That doesn't mean they will be maintaining it throughout the season.
Yeah, I am not sure how to easily find that out.

Even so, last year tripled the number from the previous 3 seasons before that. I didn't look back further than that, but I assume 30 is the most we have seen reach that in the last 20 years.

I think it is going to be difficult for teams to justify paying PPG players the same salaries relative to the salary cap when very few players reached that benchmark. I think there is going to be some tough love for players that want to use the PPG standard now that it doesn't carry as much weight.
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Old 11-04-2018, 09:11 PM   #6
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Tkachuk’s next contract will likely start with an 8. Wouldn’t be surprised if his ask is in the $9m range. We’re really fortunate we signed Monahan and Gaudreau when we did.
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Old 11-04-2018, 09:25 PM   #7
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Last year on this date, 50 players had played at least 5 games with at least 1.0 Pt/G. Today, 61 players meet that threshold.

At the end of last season, 24 players finished with a minimum of 5 games played with at least 1.0 Pt/G.
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Old 11-04-2018, 09:34 PM   #8
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In 14-15, there were only 3 players with 82+ points. No one reached the 90 point plateau.
In 17-18, there were 20 players with 82+ points.
You're right, that's a huge difference in a relatively short amount of time.

Since 2010, there have been 8 100+ point performances by players.
3 of them were last year. McDavid sure joined the league at the right time.

I do think the players are more skilled now. They're also faster. Greater numbers of penalties result in more goals scored. There's also more games that end with overtime goals. Plus, goaltender pads have become "smaller".

I welcome these higher goal totals. The recent Flames games against Colorado and Chicago were exciting, to say the least.
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Old 11-04-2018, 09:43 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by getbak View Post
Last year on this date, 50 players had played at least 5 games with at least 1.0 Pt/G. Today, 61 players meet that threshold.

At the end of last season, 24 players finished with a minimum of 5 games played with at least 1.0 Pt/G.
Thanks.

I was considering players that are within a point right now, and players from last season that finished within a few points. Like if a player has 77 or 78 points, it's not unfair to consider them just as valuable offensively.

But I don't mind using PPG literally either as I think it still shows the same trend lately.
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Old 11-04-2018, 10:04 PM   #10
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Power play efficiency suddenly spiked in 17/18.

20 teams were over 20% on the PP last season.

It went like:
14/15- 6 teams
15/16-8 teams
16/17-11 teams
17/18- 20 teams

I'm pretty sure that penalty calls are still near an all time low though.

3 on 3 OT has helped the top scorers in the NHL for sure.
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Old 11-04-2018, 10:09 PM   #11
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how many guys even play a full season? injuries alone would cause a huge drop
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Old 11-04-2018, 10:57 PM   #12
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I think coaching team construction have played huge roles in the increase in scoring performances. Oil Stain already pointed to an uptick in powerplay success over the past couple years, which I think has a lot to do with coaching. But with a stronger emphasis on playing a more balanced three or four line offensive game this has also allowed for long term success for more offensively dynamic players that once did not fit the NHL player mould. A lot more players are scoring now because this is what teams need—there is less and less room for players who do not contribute offensively.
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Old 11-04-2018, 11:07 PM   #13
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I blame the smaller goalie equipment for the spike, pucks seem to be going through goalies now
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Old 11-05-2018, 12:25 AM   #14
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I love Tkachuk but yeesh 9M. Hope Tre can work some magic and do a 7x7.5 or something like that.

Gone are the days where you get a discount on an RFA I guess.
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Old 11-05-2018, 12:34 AM   #15
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New goalie equipment...plus by then end of the year most of these 70 guys will miss some games
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Old 11-05-2018, 12:40 AM   #16
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Probably the biggest thing to stop all these guys from being PPG by the end of the season they will have missed time and Mike Smith will no longer be the starter.
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Old 11-05-2018, 12:49 AM   #17
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Probably the biggest thing to stop all these guys from being PPG by the end of the season they will have missed time and Mike Smith will no longer be the starter.
Lol.
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Old 11-05-2018, 05:27 AM   #18
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Obvious correlation to goalie equipment size.

Between that and the decrease in hooking and hitting.

The league wanted higher scoring games, better this way than bigger nets like they were suggesting.
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Old 11-05-2018, 05:38 AM   #19
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We're going to be paying the **** out of Tkachuk, I assume. Still amazing to have a player of his caliber, a good problem. But man, the stars are aligning for the biggest contract in franchise history by a wide margin.
I get what you are saying, but I also think the internal salary structure that Treliving has instated works hugely in our favor. If Tkachuk is gonna get a much bigger contract than everyone else, he needs to argue that he is in fact better and more valuable to his team than Gio, Gaudreau and Monahan. Not saying that it can't be done, but it's not gonna be as easy as pointing at league wide comparables and demands the highest possible number.
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Old 11-05-2018, 06:36 AM   #20
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I blame the smaller goalie equipment for the spike, pucks seem to be going through goalies now
That is my impression too...although, it could just be an observation based on being a Flames fan this year!
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