Sam Bennett '17/'18 - 5v5 linemates/production (WARNING: Silly Sample Size)

[ComixZone]

Sam Bennett has probably been the most debated player on the forum this season, so I thought it'd be fun to take a peak at what his performance has been like under difference circumstances during 5v5 play. I've been a big defender of his and have claimed the quality of his line-mates has definitely impacted his offensive production.

There's lots to debate about Sam's performance, including things like what happens when he gets frustrated, which as Bingo pointed out (at least I think it was Bingo), leads to him taking pretty lousy offensive zone stick infractions. These don't bug me too much (perhaps my own bias of wanting to cut a young player some slack), as I think it's part of being a young aggressive player who doesn't always know what to do when he is struggling in the offensive zone. I think it's part of his game that will slowly fade off as his overall game develops with age and experience.

The stats below are pulled form Frozen Pool, but their performance % only accounts for 18 of his 5v5 points, so I had to go through what his scoring plays were, and then effectively guess to what the lines were for the remaining 2 points, I also re-allocated 1 point away from the Bennett-Jankowski-Hathaway line and associated it with Bennett-Monahan-Hathaway line as that's what the scoring play showed. 5v5 TOI was taken from hockey-reference.com

Sam Bennett has played 767 minutes at 5v5 play this year, producing 20 points (8 goals, 12 assists). During this time, Bennett’s line-mates have been:

51.9% (398 minutes) have been played with Mark Jankowski and Garnet Hathaway. During this time, Bennett has produced 30% of his 5v5 points (6 points).

20.8% (160 minutes) has been played with Mark Jankowski and Jaromir Jagr. During this time, Bennett has produced 25% of his 5v5 points (5 points)

11.2% (86 minutes) has been played with Mark Jankowski and Troy Brouwer. During this time, Bennett has produced 10% of his 5v5 points (2 points)

10.3% (79 minutes) has been played with Mark Jankowski and Curtis Lazar. During this time Bennett has produced 10% of his 5v5 points (2 points)

5.8% (44 minutes) has been played with Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau. During this time Bennett has produced 10% of his 5v5 points (2 points)

He also produced three points during a very brief amount of ice-time (likely during line changes) under the following circumstances:

Playing with Sean Monahan and Garnet Hathaway, producing 5% of his 5v5 points (1 point)

Playing with Matthew Tkachuk and Mark Jankowski, producing 10% of his 5v5 points (2 points)


Scoring Plays:
November 9th – Mark Jankowski (Jagr, Bennett)
November 13th – Mark Jankowski (Jagr, Bennett)
November 13th – Bennett (Jankowski)
November 28th – Stone (Bennett, Brouwer)
November 30th – Jankowski (Jagr, Bennett)
November 30th – Jankowski (Bennett)
December 2nd – Bennett (Jankowski, Hamilton)
December 2nd – Bennett (Unassisted)
December 4th – Monahan (Hathaway, Bennett)
December 7th – Hathaway (Bennett, Kulak)
December 9th – Bennett (Jankowski, Hathaway)
December 17th – Jankowski (Bennett, Hathaway)
December 17th – Tkachuk (Bennett, Jankowski)
December 17th – Bennett (Hamonic, Jankowski)
December 17th – PP - Ferland (Bennett, Hamilton)
December 28th – Hathaway (Bennett, Jankowski)
January 11th – PP – Bennett (Brodie, Jankowski)
January 30th – Bennett (Brouwer)
February 11th – PP – Jankowski (Bennett, Gaudreau)
February 13th – Bennett (Hathaway)
February 15th – Jankowski (Tkachuk, Bennett)
February 22nd – Bennett (Gaudreau, Giordano)
February 22nd – Gaudreau (Monahan, Bennett)

So, given that this (very tiny) sample size is what it is – let’s have some fun and look at what his projected point total could be if he played his entire season to date with a few different lines:

Bennett – Monahan – Gaudreau: 35 5v5 points - of note, Michael Ferland has 28 5v5 points, Sean Monahan has 38 5v5 points, and Johnny Gaudreau has 50 5v5 points.
Bennett – Jankowski – Jagr: 24 5v5 points
Bennett – Jankowski – Hathaway: 12 5v5 points

It’s an admittedly goofy thing to look at right now, given the incredibly small sample size of time spent with Gaudreau and Monahan – but I think this does give a tiny little window into how circumstance has played into Sam Bennett’s production this season.

Looking at this, and then looking at the recent history of the 4th overall draft spot (which I've previously gone into, here), I don't see any "damning" evidence that speaks to Bennett being a bust. Sure, he's the one high-end draft pick in recent Flames history that hasn't sky-rocketed to solid levels of success - but I do have a feeling if we went back and looked at Tkachuk's, Monahan's, and Gaudreau's quality of line-mates, I think we'd see pretty clearly that by in large, they've played with more effective NHL talent during their time as Calgary Flames.

Bennett looks like he's going to get a chance to prove himself on that top-line with Ferland's injury - and while we can debate whether or not he's "earned" it, I think he's the best option in the line-up right now. It's on him to show he can play there, but even if he can't - I still see a developing player with a lot of utility in the line-up, and someone who is going to help the team going forward.

Anyways...well, that was a fun little waste of time at my desk.

...any errors or goof ups in this post are open to ridicule, but I don't think I made any glaring errors.

[Eric Vail]

I doubt we will see Bennett pretty much match Monahan's scoring on the top line, but I would love to see it. He'll get a long term spot there if it happens.

[The Boy Wonder]

Thank you for this! I really don’t want to get into the huge argument from yesterday but I think this shows that there is at least something to giving Bennett a continued look on this top line and hopefully he grabs it and runs with it.

[Monahammer]

At a quick glance I would like to know why we don't try lazar out more often on the third line in Hathaway's place.

I would also like to see more of this breakdown of the how the lines produce without Bennett as well. It seems that the fluctuating talent on right wing has a pretty profound impact on Janko and Bennett's point production, but is Bennett hampering or boosting other lines he is put on? Does Bennett boost Janko's production too?

[shadowlord]

This is a great analysis.

I agree that the sample size is small; but it does seem to pass the eye-test in terms of his playing better on the top line.

Would it be informative to compare use non-scoring advanced stats like corsi, high danger scoring chances, zone start %age? Although it looks like you compiled your data by hand, so maybe my request isn't practical.

When you say Bennett would have scored 35 points 5v5 if he had been with Gaudreau-Monahan; I'm assuming you've based this on 100% of Bennett's 767 minutes played at 5v5 this season. It might stand to reason that if Bennett were indeed on the top-line, he'd have more than 767 minutes and thus more than 35 points. Would it be reasonable to replace the 767 minutes with the average of Gaudreau/Monahan's 5v56 minute totals? What would the Bennett's projected point total look like then?

Again, kudos on the hard work.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by shadowlord

This is a great analysis.

I agree that the sample size is small; but it does seem to pass the eye-test in terms of his playing better on the top line.

Would it be informative to compare use non-scoring advanced stats like corsi, high danger scoring chances, zone start %age? Although it looks like you compiled your data by hand, so maybe my request isn't practical.

When you say Bennett would have scored 35 points 5v5 if he had been with Gaudreau-Monahan; I'm assuming you've based this on 100% of Bennett's 767 minutes played at 5v5 this season. It might stand to reason that if Bennett were indeed on the top-line, he'd have more than 767 minutes and thus more than 35 points. Would it be reasonable to replace the 767 minutes with the average of Gaudreau/Monahan's 5v56 minute totals? What would the Bennett's projected point total look like then?

Again, kudos on the hard work.

Correcto. I simply took his performance per minute played with Gaudreau/Monahan, and slapped it onto the 767 minutes rather than the 44 minutes...I know there's a lot of different variables that can go into this stuff, but it was really just me looking at it during lunch for kicks.

[CSharp]

Why not do a sample size of one game where he had 3 points on the Monahan-Gaudreau line that one day or the 4 goals he had when Hartley was still the coach. That'll make all Bennett lovers out there joyfully happy.

[Flamenfame]

All that shows is Bennett is pretty Meh when he drives his own line but picks up pace as a complimentary piece with elite players , trying to justify why he has under performed for a top 4 pick with small sample size is reaching at best. He has a .38 ppg career average 4 years after being drafted is very disappointing !
I can already tell he wont become an effective player till career years 7-10 he during that time will be anywhere from the 45 point to 60 point range at the very optimistic level .

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by CSharp

Why not do a sample size of one game where he had 3 points on the Monahan-Gaudreau line that one day or the 4 goals he had when Hartley was still the coach. That'll make all Bennett lovers out there joyfully happy.

That's pretty pissy.

The guy was above board honest about sample sizes but digging into something interesting.

If you don't buy it, don't ... but that was a poor response.

[SuperMatt18]

To top up he's actually not nearly as bad as ppl would like to think at 5v5 when you look at the Point per 60 metric that normalizes for ice time.

Gaudreau - 2.72
Monahan - 2.46
Ferland - 2.16
Tkachuk - 1.75
Bennett - 1.66
Backlund - 1.5
Hathaway - 1.43
Jankowski - 1.36
Frolik - 1.29

5th on the team behind only the first line and Tkachuk. Better than the rest of our top 9.

Some comparables that I've heard rumored or wanted in trade talks that seem to think are much better players than Bennett are also a very similar points per 60 and are close to his 20 ES points.

Kane - 1.47 - 22 ES Points
Gallagher 1.7 - 22 ES Points
Grabner 1.71 - 21 ES Points
Zuccarello 1.69 - 24 ES Points
Kreider 1.65 - 13 ES Points
Saad 1.63 - 21 ES Points
Hoffman 1.28 - 18 ES Points
Reinhart 1.22 - 16 ES Points

ASIDE: On these last two it's interesting that Nick Shore is at 1.24 P/60 with 12 ES points in LA. AKA we got comparable ES production to Sam Reinhart for a 7th round pick.

It becomes even better when you realize he had no points for the first 15 games. Bennett has his first point on 11/9/2017.

Since that game the ES points per 60 production for the team is:

Gaudreau - 2.69 - 31 points
Monahan - 2.25 - 24 points
Ferland - 2.18 - 22 points
Bennett - 2.11 - 20 points
Tkachuk - 1.63 - 17 points
Jankowski - 1.55 - 16 points
Backlund - 1.48 - 14 points

Comparables to his 2.11 and 20 ES points in the league in that time are: Laine, Larkin, Boeser, Huberdeau, Landeskog, Schenn, Tarasenko, etc. That is even more impressive when you consider his most common linemates in that time are Jankowski, and a bit of a rotating door at RW between Hathaway, Jagr, Lazar, & Brouwer. None of whom you'd consider "top talent".

At ES Sam Bennett has been quite productive after his initial 15 game scoreless drought. It's on the PP where he isn't productive.

Flames only have 8 forwards who have played 60 or more minutes on the PP. Bennett has the lowest point total among that group with 3 PP points. His 2.26 Points per 60 on the PP is by far the lowest on the team as well.

So Sam Bennett is actually pretty good at ES, his real problem is the PP where A) He doesn't get very much PP time to start with, & B) When he does get time our second unit as a whole doesn't produce very well.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by CSharp

Why not do a sample size of one game where he had 3 points on the Monahan-Gaudreau line that one day or the 4 goals he had when Hartley was still the coach. That'll make all Bennett lovers out there joyfully happy.

Bah Humbug.

He warned you on the sample size. Why not try to offer something constructive instead of dismissing the work the OP put into the post.

[Bingo]

My article from 11 months ago ...

https://www.calgarypuck.com/2017/03/banking-on-bennett/

Some of the obvious things that jump out in the table above;

1. Sam Bennett has played 650 minutes less than Leon Draisaitl and 300 minutes less than Sam Reinhart. That amounts to roughly a half season in comparison to the Edmonton player based on 15 minutes a night, and closer to 50 games if you take into account Sam Bennett’s career average ice time.
2. Sam Bennett has spent 55% of his time in the NHL playing with less than impact players. He’s young himself so it’s unfair to veteran NHLers to suggest he’s been on his own, but the fact remains, his time with Calgary impact players has been limited.
3. Leon Draisaitl has only played 18% of his time on his own, and 82% of the time he’s had someone to play pitch and catch with including one of the best players in the world for the bulk of this season.
4. Sam Reinhart has had an even greater advantage as he’s been alone only 9% of the time and has spent 40% of the time with two impact players, a huge leg up.
5. It can’t be ignored that Bennett has been crushed when he’s had limited linemates as his goal differential and possession numbers are far worse than that of his draft counterparts.

[devo22]

Bennett right now can not anchor his own line and maybe he never will, but he is a really good complimentary player and in my opinion a nice fit on the top line. It's all about putting him in a position where he can succeed, and he has shown that he can produce when paired with good offensive players. Has the legs to keep up with them, has the hands to play with them, has the tenacity to provide space for them ... I don't understand why he hasn't been put in that situation more often when it's pretty obvious that he can't carry his own line at this point and isn't adding a whole lot when saddled with bottom-six players. Skilled players need skill around them to succeed.

[Flamenfame]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

To top up he's actually not nearly as bad as ppl would like to think at 5v5 when you look at the Point per 60 metric that normalizes for ice time.

Gaudreau - 2.72
Monahan - 2.46
Ferland - 2.16
Tkachuk - 1.75
Bennett - 1.66
Backlund - 1.5
Hathaway - 1.43
Jankowski - 1.36
Frolik - 1.29

5th on the team behind only the first line and Tkachuk. Better than the rest of our top 6.

Some comparables that I've heard rumored or wanted in trade talks that seem to think are much better players than Bennett are also a very similar points per 60 and are close to his 20 ES points.

Kane - 1.47 - 22 ES Points
Gallagher 1.7 - 22 ES Points
Grabner 1.71 - 21 ES Points
Zuccarello 1.69 - 24 ES Points
Kreider 1.65 - 13 ES Points
Saad 1.63 - 21 ES Points
Hoffman 1.28 - 18 ES Points
Reinhart 1.22 - 16 ES Points

ASIDE: On these last two it's interesting that Nick Shore is at 1.24 P/60 with 12 ES points in LA. AKA we got comparable ES production to Sam Reinhart for a 7th round pick.

It becomes even better when you realize he had no points for the first 15 games. Bennett has his first point on 11/9/2017.

Since that game the ES points per 60 production for the team is:

Gaudreau - 2.69 - 31 points
Monahan - 2.25 - 24 points
Ferland - 2.18 - 22 points
Bennett - 2.11 - 20 points
Tkachuk - 1.63 - 17 points
Jankowski - 1.55 - 16 points
Backlund - 1.48 - 14 points

Comparables to his 2.11 and 20 ES points in the league in that time are: Laine, Larkin, Boeser, Huberdeau, Landeskog, Schenn, Tarasenko, etc

At ES Sam Bennett has been quite productive after his initial 15 game scoreless drought. It's on the PP where he isn't productive.

Flames only have 8 forwards who have played 60 or more minutes on the PP. Bennett has the lowest point total among that group with 3 PP points. His 2.26 Points per 60 on the PP is by far the lowest on the team as well.

So Sam Bennett is actually pretty good at ES, his real problem is the PP where A) He doesn't get very much PP time to start with, & B) When he does get time our second unit as a whole doesn't produce very well.

OMG you know who has a better career ppg and a better pts per 60 than Bennett ? Pretty good lol his name is Nail Yakupov considered the biggest bust in a couple of decades

[The Boy Wonder]

Originally Posted by devo22

Bennett right now can not anchor his own line and maybe he never will, but he is a really good complimentary player and in my opinion a nice fit on the top line. It's all about putting him in a position where he can succeed, and he has shown that he can produce when paired with good offensive players. Has the legs to keep up with them, has the hands to play with them, has the tenacity to provide space for them ... I don't understand why he hasn't been put in that situation more often when it's pretty obvious that he can't carry his own line at this point and isn't adding a whole lot when saddled with bottom-six players. Skilled players need skill around them to succeed.

I agree 100% but the issue is that if you play Bennett top line then ferland has to play third line and he is less capable of driving his own line than Bennett so the coaching staff seems to see a trade off because Bennett is better than ferland on the third line he should stay there as the difference between thrird line bennett and third line ferland is greater than the difference infirst line Bennett and first line ferkland

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Flamenfame

OMG you know who has a better career ppg and a better pts per 60 than Bennett ? Pretty good lol his name is Nail Yakupov considered the biggest bust in a couple of decades

Biggest difference is that Yakupov was playing with Hall, McDavid, RNH, etc in a top 6 role for the majority of his time and the only thing he brought to the table was offense.

Bennett is more well rounded and can produce at ES in a 3rd line role with Jankowski, Hathaway, Brouwer, Lazar etc as linemates.

That is a big difference. Sometimes total points don't tell the whole story.

But by all means the Flames should trade him for a back of pucks, and label him a bust because who needs the 5th most productive player at ES on the team.

[Bingo]

When you think of the evolution of the Flames in recent years the handling of Bennett makes a lot of sense.

The team needs scoring depth.

Gaudreau and Monahan became inseparable three years ago, that set a line.
Frolik and Backlund became a duo, so they used Bennett with them for a year.

But then they wanted a third line and went out and signed Brouwer to help him. Whiff

Meanwhile Tkachuk takes over that third line winger hole and forms a league dominant line taking away the old Bennett space.

Now it's Bennett and what? Jankowski, Jagr, Hathaway, Brouwer, Versteeg. The parts just haven't been there.

They know it, but they don't have the horses to beef up the top nine.

[DazzlinDino]

From what I can recall, Hartley believed it was important to let young skilled players play. I would like to see how Sam Bennett and that line would do if he was given an extended period of time on that line. Maybe GG and co have a different strategy for Sam or feel the top line needs a heavy weight; However when Johnny and Monahan played with, Jiri Hudler they were dynamic and unstoppable at times. Should Sam Bennett be given an opportunity to unleash his and develop talent on the top line or is he being groomed to be a 200 foot player on a secondary line?

I would like to see Sam Bennett be given a fair chance to run with it on the top line on his current contract.

[Toonage]

Stats aside, from the eyeball test alone, he is a completely different player with Gaudreau & Monahan. Its instantly noticeable.

[dissentowner]

For me it is the eye test that tells me Bennett needs to stay on the top line. That trio seems to spend most of their shift in the offensive zone and Bennett does a great job along the boards retrieving pucks and winning board battles. He also seems more energized too. I think he is the best fit there