Demonstrations in Iran - 6 Days in

[killer_carlson]

The Iranian demonstrations are ongoing.

Economic forces are credited with driving the anti-government protesters

Pro-government protesters are also marching as well

From CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/03/asia/i...ntl/index.html

Mojtaba, a 33-year-old Iranian who gave only his first name, told CNN that a lot of young people wanted the same lifestyles they see others having in wealthier parts of Iran as well as abroad.
"A lot of the kids in the smaller cities have gotten a taste for a better life through social media. They look at what they see on Instagram or Telegram and compare that to their prospects, and naturally they get angry."
The government has restricted those two apps in parts of the country but said they would be accessible again on Friday.
Friday will be a litmus test of how strong anti-government sentiment remains. When protests are staged in Iran, they often come after Friday prayers.

From Foxnews:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018...iate-time.html

Unlike the Obama administration’s response to that movement, which stood largely silent amid those protests, the Trump administration is openly supporting pro-democracy demonstrations.

The president has repeatedly issued tweets of support, noting that “The U.S. is watching.”

Other officials, like U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, urged the international community to join in on the administration’s efforts.

“We must not be silent,” Haley said Tuesday. “The people of Iran are crying out for freedom. All freedom-loving people must stand with their cause.”

From the Guardian (UK) - no idea where they lay on the political spectrum:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ts-week-unrest

It is not possible to compare the size of the crowds at the anti-government protests with the counter-demonstrations approved by Tehran. No independent journalists are permitted to film the anti-government protests, while Iranian authorities have on similar occasions bussed in supporters.

“The protesters don’t have a leader, it’s a leaderless movement, and I call it the movement of the hungry, the starved people.”

The National Post has an interesting take as their front page story this morning. Where are the world's "Progressive" leaders in this? It is alleged that You have women violating the law by removing their hijabs and exposing their hair in public for the first time in 39 years, demanding change. And silence from alleged progressive leaders such as Trudeau. The National Post is correct in questioning Trudeau's lack of support.

http://nationalpost.com/news/world/s...-iran-protests

[Kjesse]

This is hopefully going to turn into a revolution even greater than the scale of Tiananmen Square in 1989. The chinese folks I know call it a revolution here watching from Canada, while their relatives in China seem to downplay it and not call it a revolution, but it had major positive societal consequences either way.

This story needs more attention. And this is one of the rare (even unique?) times the brashness of Trump is preferred to the status quo support of Iran by Obama. Obama was very careful to not upset Iran. Trump doesn't care if he upsets Iran. Obama was keen on stability in the middle east which necessarily included not upsetting Iran while turmoil reigned in Iraq and while appeasing Saudi Arabia.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

The National Post has an interesting take as their front page story this morning. Where are the world's "Progressive" leaders in this? It is alleged that You have women violating the law by removing their hijabs and exposing their hair in public for the first time in 39 years, demanding change. And silence from alleged progressive leaders such as Trudeau.

There is actually an explanation for this, although it's somewhat convoluted if you're not a person who subscribes to certain assumptions about power dynamics in society. That mode of thinking is, in my view, horribly confused and if ascendent, enormously dangerous. It is described in some detail in this piece:

http://conatusnews.com/western-centr...-feminism/amp/

Any conversation about the horror of female genital mutilation is likely to be derailed away from girls in danger right now to a lecture on the pre-Islamic origins of the practice. Any attempts to discuss gender-specific modesty veiling will almost certainly result in a claim that Muslim women are exercising their own choice and are somehow magically free of the paralysing societal pressures claimed to be experienced by western feminists. When a petition to criminalise cat-calling and other gender-based annoying behaviour gets more than 58,000 signatures but a petition to strengthen multi-agency responses to ‘honour’-based violence receives only 406 (and consequently will not be addressed by parliament), people could be excused for thinking western non-Muslim feminists only care about themselves.

This is a misconception. Sort of.

Well worth reading if you find the silence on this topic confusing. It should be utterly baffling given the principles that they claim to stand for, but if you're paying attention to what passes for moral thought among the people you're asking to speak up, it's not surprising.

[iggy_oi]

US relations with Iran were very different leading up to nuclear deal being signed(the bulk of Obama’s term). Trump is too distracted arguing about buttons with North Korea to have an interest in what’s going on in Iraq. Trump doesn’t have to care about upsetting Iran, let’s not glorify his actions, he simply doesn’t have anything to gain by getting involved. Could you imagine the news headlines we’d be reading daily if trump and Ahmadinejad were both in power at the same time?

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Kjesse

This is hopefully going to turn into a revolution even greater than the scale of Tiananmen Square in 1989. The chinese folks I know call it a revolution here watching from Canada, while their relatives in China seem to downplay it and not call it a revolution, but it had major positive societal consequences either way.

This story needs more attention. And this is one of the rare (even unique?) times the brashness of Trump is preferred to the status quo support of Iran by Obama. Obama was very careful to not upset Iran. Trump doesn't care if he upsets Iran. Obama was keen on stability in the middle east which necessarily included not upsetting Iran while turmoil reigned in Iraq and while appeasing Saudi Arabia.

More then likely the leadership and revolutionary guard will hit that "That's enough button". They'll roll in with guns and clubs and arrest the leaders and hang a few and the whole thing will peter out.

[temple5]

Is Iran's army similar to Egypt's in that its on the "side of the people" or is it more government aligned?

I can only hope that no western power intervenes and lets this play out organically if its going to happen. Lasting progress is slow and not something that can be captured with 140 characters or an evening news cast.

[Looch City]

Originally Posted by temple5

Is Iran's army similar to Egypt's in that its on the "side of the people" or is it more government aligned?

I can only hope that no western power intervenes and lets this play out organically if its going to happen. Lasting progress is slow and not something that can be captured with 140 characters or an evening news cast.

Definitely government aligned.

I mean look at this guy:

Gen Jafari said: "Today, we can say that this is the end of the 96 sedition," referring to the current year - 1396 - in the Persian calendar.

He said "security preparedness and people's vigilance" had led to the defeat of "enemies" and that the Guards had only intervened in a "limited" way in three provinces.

He added: "There were a maximum of 1,500 people in each place and the number of troublemakers did not exceed 15,000 people nationwide."

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42556729

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by temple5

Is Iran's army similar to Egypt's in that its on the "side of the people" or is it more government aligned?

I can only hope that no western power intervenes and lets this play out organically if its going to happen. Lasting progress is slow and not something that can be captured with 140 characters or an evening news cast.

The Military is hard core on the government's side, their Military Leaders live daily with a knife over their head as well.

If the Army is told to go and crack some skulls, it will be a question of how many are cracked.

[blankall]

The protestors have a very large hill to climb. The religious institutions, which are led by the Ayatollahs, play such a key role in the lives of so many Iranians that any kind of revolution will be opposed by much of the population. There are lots of progressive Iranians in the major cities, but they are pretty outnumbered. I just don't see how any kind of movement can succeed without help from the army.

[CaptainCrunch]

A quote from 1984 just hit me

O'Brien: If you want a vision of the future, Winston, imagine a boot stamping on a human face forever.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by Kjesse

This is hopefully going to turn into a revolution even greater than the scale of Tiananmen Square in 1989. The chinese folks I know call it a revolution here watching from Canada, while their relatives in China seem to downplay it and not call it a revolution, but it had major positive societal consequences either way.

The Chinese government (amazingly in this day and age) still strictly controls all information in China. The vast, vast, vast majority of Chinese citizens have no idea what happened in 1989.

It will be interesting to see how Iran responds here. My sense is that they have far less control over information than China. Turning the military loose on their own citizens could therefore have significant consequences.

[Reaper]

Sounds like Iran will get a big dose of Freedom in 2018.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Makarov

It will be interesting to see how Iran responds here. My sense is that they have far less control over information than China.

This is clearly the case, simply because China is so much more sophisticated and practiced. But the Iranians are trying, nonetheless.

Maryam Nayeb Yazdi‏ @maryamnayebyazd

The Iranian regime authorities have blocked Telegram, Whatsapp and Instagram. This has made it difficult to get information out of Iran. And it has also made it hard for Iranians to communicate with each other in order to coordinate and organize protests.

On a more positive note, though,

Karim Sadjadpour‏ Verified @ksadjadpour

10. Another stat: During Iran’s 2009 protests less than 1m people had smart phones, few outside Tehran. Today 48 MILLION people have them. State-controlled media is less potent when people have independent news sources-and video cameras-in their pocket

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Reaper

Sounds like Iran will get a big dose of Freedom in 2018.

Doubtful

The religious nutbars have a strangle hold on the various security, military, and police apparatus.

More likely there's a run on ropes and bullets.