Burke's 3S philosophy to matching up with teams for Stanley Cup success

[Flamescuprun2018]

Now that we are in playoffs officially. Time to have some discussion the road in front of us to a Stanley Cup.

Brian Burke has previously stated: "To win a Stanley Cup you need to beat one team with size, another team with speed, the third team with special teams/skill and the fourth team with a hybrid of all three."

Lets classify the teams we are likely to face on that path.

Size

Weight
4 Anaheim Ducks 93.13 kg
5 Washington Capitals 93.09 kg
8 Toronto Maple Leafs 92.81 kg
9 Edmonton Oilers 92.28 kg

Source: http://www.eliteprospects.com/league...ueid=7&sort=wt

Height
3 St. Louis Blues 186.89 cm
4 Anaheim Ducks 186.83 cm
6 Calgary Flames 186.72 cm
7 Toronto Maple Leafs 186.33 cm
9 Washington Capitals 186.18 cm
10 New York Rangers 186.12 cm

Source: http://www.eliteprospects.com/league...ueid=7&sort=ht


Speed

Source: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=2162003

Pittsburgh 1st;NYR;Leafs;Oilers;Tampa;Hawks; Montreal

Pretty consistent rankings but not a great source I would admit.

Special Teams/Skill
PP%
2 Toronto Maple Leafs 24.2%
3 Washington Capitals 23.6%
4 Tampa Bay Lightning 22.9%
5 Edmonton Oilers 22.2%
6 Pittsburgh Penguins 22.0%
Source: https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/s...rcentage/2016/

SH%
5 Anaheim Ducks 85.0%
6 St. Louis Blues 84.3%
7 Washington Capitals 84.0%
8 Toronto Maple Leafs 83.0%

Source: https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/s...rcentage/2016/

All-around teams

Anaheim, Oilers, Capitals and Penguins standout in multiple categories.

If Burkie is right, I guess we end up playing:

Anaheim (size); Oilers (all around); Hawks (speed) and Capitals (special teams/skill).

[Knut]

I would love to play all 4 teams in the playoffs

[lazypucker]

How about big game experience and truculence? I think the Oilers lack both.

[EVERLAST]

Pitts penguins were fast and skilled and had a hot goalie and I see us looking almost the mirror image of them last year for the exception of no real deep playoff experience .

We're going in relatively healthy and from the net out can hold our own.

Scoring however at times worries me. We have hiccups where we revert to bad habits and don't exit and enter zones properly and I think playing mistake free disciplined hockey will help us go a a long way.

Burke isn't wrong about allot but I'd be willing to bet he still wants us to be heavier and more truculent.

I willing to bet he's in love with Tkachuk and never knew this kid would already have the reputation he has .

It's important though guys like Brouwer continue to improve as I don't see what others who love him see yet (little things) and he's now in the 4th line.

Chiasson has gotten better. BouMA is still meh....I'd rather see Freddie Or Hathaway Tbqh.

Ferlund has been very average but since quarantine I wonder if he's still not 100% or remembers what it will take to win like 2 years ago when he was a one man wrecking machine.

I am so excited for Gio.....2 yr ago tearing his bicep ....that's a hell of an injury to come back from but he did it and is the captain of old and in my mind Scotty Bowman was right in naming him years ago thr most improved d man in the nhl.

Time to set the tone tonight against the ducks who are a damn good team but I see them no different than the sharks prior to last year and the year before .....supposed to win it all and just can't put it all together .

Go flames go

[Point Blank]

Oilers has SConner

[Flamescuprun2018]

Truculence = Size
Would agree that experience helps to win so does an elite goalie.

Burke's philosophy is more about building the Flames to match-up with the different styles.

An interesting article on the subject below which emphasizes core vs depth.

Source: http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/ar...-cup-contender

7 core: 1C, 1W, 2C, 4F, 1D, 2D, 1G and then overall depth with remaining 13 players.

Could not find WAR stat anywhere but pulled up Points share which clearly shows our core 7.

PS
1 Dougie Hamilton 9.3
2 Mark Giordano 8.8
3 Brian Elliott 7.2
4 Sean Monahan 7.0
5 Johnny Gaudreau 6.3
6 Mikael Backlund 5.8
7 Matthew Tkachuk 5.3

Source: http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/CGY/2017.html

[MarkGio]

I don't like it. It's too simplistic. Here's my rough formula for the things you can control (75%)

Good Coach/System/Special Teams (15%)
Hot goalie (15%)
#1 Defenseman (10%)
1-2 punch down the middle (10%)
Skilled wingers (10%)
Deep top 9 (10%)
Deep top 4 (10%)
Useful bottom pair (5%)
Useful 4th line (5%)
Speed and Size (5%)
Sacrifice and Energy (5%)

What you can't control:
-- Injuries (8.3%)
-- Bounces (8.3%)
-- Reffing (8.3%)

[tsquared1967]

Originally Posted by Flamescuprun2018

Anaheim (size); Oilers (all around); Hawks (speed) and Capitals (special teams/skill).

I don't classify Oilers as all around team. The Capitals and Blackhawks are the all around team. The Capitals are bigger and have specialty teams better then the Oilers and have speed as well. The Oilers have one line and speed.

[Flamescuprun2018]

Originally Posted by tsquared1967

I don't classify Oilers as all around team. The Capitals and Blackhawks are the all around team. The Capitals are bigger and have specialty teams better then the Oilers and have speed as well. The Oilers have one line and speed.

I hear ya just basing on stats. Eyeball test less convincing Oilers are an all-around team. Have gotten bigger and PP has been very good.

Three players stand out with Points Share:

Cam Talbot 13.8
Connor McDavid 12.2
Leon Draisaitl 9.3

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by tsquared1967

I don't classify Oilers as all around team. The Capitals and Blackhawks are the all around team. The Capitals are bigger and have specialty teams better then the Oilers and have speed as well. The Oilers have one line and speed.

If feels like that sometimes because McDavid really carries the offence some games but it doesn't appear to be true. The McDavid line scores a large percentage of the team's goals but the other forwards score too:

Oilers top three-84
Oilers the rest-109

Flames top three-66
Flames the rest-104


The Flames hold the edge in defence scoring:
Oilers D-34
Flames D-43

[tsquared1967]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

If feels like that sometimes because McDavid really carries the offence some games but it doesn't appear to be true. The McDavid line scores a large percentage of the team's goals but the other forwards score too:

Oilers top three-84
Oilers the rest-109

Flames top three-66
Flames the rest-104


The Flames hold the edge in defence scoring:
Oilers D-34
Flames D-43

Mark Letestu has 15 goals but 12 are on the powerplay where he benefits from McDavid. Your stats about the rest of the Oilers forwards contributing is flawed.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by tsquared1967

Mark Letestu has 15 goals but 12 are on the powerplay where he benefits from McDavid. Your stats about the rest of the Oilers forwards contributing is flawed.

Letestu has always been pretty good on the PP. He's a swiss army knife player.

But ok lets take away all the PP goals scored by Edmonton and Calgary players that aren't in the top 3.

Rest of Edmonton forwards-79
Rest of Calgary forwards-80

I don't think it changes the story all that much.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Letestu has always been pretty good on the PP. He's a swiss army knife player.

But ok lets take away all the PP goals scored by Edmonton and Calgary players that aren't in the top 3.

Rest of Edmonton forwards-79
Rest of Calgary forwards-80

I don't think it changes the story all that much.

Flames have 12 forwards with 10+ goals compared to the Oilers 8. Dougie Hamilton would be 3rd in points on the Oilers. Really the Flames have much better scoring depth throughout the lineup as the Oilers have been getting a lot of their offense from two players. I think the Oilers are playing a better defensive game right now but if the McDavid ever gets injured you can stick a fork in them.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Flames have 12 forwards with 10+ goals compared to the Oilers 8. Dougie Hamilton would be 3rd in points on the Oilers. Really the Flames have much better scoring depth throughout the lineup as the Oilers have been getting a lot of their offense from two players. I think the Oilers are playing a better defensive game right now but if the McDavid ever gets injured you can stick a fork in them.

The Flames have rotated guys through their top six more often than the Oilers, and the Oilers haven't had the same roster night in and out as often as the Flames so it can be difficult to compare straight across.

I mean you look at Gaudreau's icetime and he's played 20% with Ferland/Monahan, 20% with Chiasson/Monahan, 12% with Chiasson/Bennet, 12% with Brouwer, etc.

Compare that to McDavid who has played 38% with Maroon/Draisaitl.

Would guys like Chiasson and Ferland have reached the goal totals they did if they had been playing 3rd or 4th line minutes the whole season?

If you didn't run Maroon with McDavid for most of the season and had rotating wingers from the bottom six, you'd have his 27 goals spread over 3-4 guys and the distribution would look more like the Flames IMO.

The Oilers haven't given guys like Kassian, or Hendricks, or their other bottom sixers the opportunity to play with their best players. Todd hasn't been rotating wingers through the McDavid line like Calgary has done with Monahan/Gaudreau. Pouliot was pretty much the only guy from the bottom six to get a good shot in the top six but he's been terrible, and he only made it as high as the second line.

Calgary's most consistent line of Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik, scored 51 goals. That's the same total as Lucic-RNH-Eberle, but the second line hasn't been together nearly as often for the Oilers so do you call that a wash?

And, the Oilers have also been rotating their bottom six guys out of the lineup more often than the Flames so that's going to effect raw goal totals as well.

I think the Oilers have gotten more production out of their 4th line/call up guys then the Flames, but the Flames have the edge on the third line.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

The Flames have rotated guys through their top six more often than the Oilers, and the Oilers haven't had the same roster night in and out as often as the Flames so it can be difficult to compare straight across.

I mean you look at Gaudreau's icetime and he's played 20% with Ferland/Monahan, 20% with Chiasson/Monahan, 12% with Chiasson/Bennet, 12% with Brouwer, etc.

Compare that to McDavid who has played 38% with Maroon/Draisaitl.

Would guys like Chiasson and Ferland have reached the goal totals they did if they had been playing 3rd or 4th line minutes the whole season?

If you didn't run Maroon with McDavid for most of the season and had rotating wingers from the bottom six, you'd have his 27 goals spread over 3-4 guys and the distribution would look more like the Flames IMO.

The Oilers haven't given guys like Kassian, or Hendricks, or their other bottom sixers the opportunity to play with their best players. Todd hasn't been rotating wingers through the McDavid line like Calgary has done with Monahan/Gaudreau. Pouliot was pretty much the only guy from the bottom six to get a good shot in the top six but he's been terrible, and he only made it as high as the second line.

Calgary's most consistent line of Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik, scored 51 goals. That's the same total as Lucic-RNH-Eberle, but the second line hasn't been together nearly as often for the Oilers so do you call that a wash?

And, the Oilers have also been rotating their bottom six guys out of the lineup more often than the Flames so that's going to effect raw goal totals as well.

I think the Oilers have gotten more production out of their 4th line/call up guys then the Flames, but the Flames have the edge on the third line.

The reason they played Maroon on the top line that much is because everyone else sucked. Including their big off season signing.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The reason they played Maroon on the top line that much is because everyone else sucked. Including their big off season signing.

Which sort of mirrors the situation in Calgary doesn't it?

Edmonton hired Lucic to play on the top line, but he didn't click as well as Maroon has.

Calgary hired Brouwer who hasn't clicked, and have spent the whole season looking at different alternatives.

The difference is that the Oilers found someone that clicked much quicker. Flames seem to still be looking.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Which sort of mirrors the situation in Calgary doesn't it?

Edmonton hired Lucic to play on the top line, but he didn't click as well as Maroon has.

Calgary hired Brouwer who hasn't clicked, and have spent the whole season looking at different alternatives.

The difference is that the Oilers found someone that clicked much quicker. Flames seem to still be looking.

The Flames are pretty happy with Ferland up top I think. And I don't think Brouwer was signed to necessarily play on that line anyway. I think they expected him to be a scorer on a secondary scoring line with Bennett. That turned out not to be the case, but 3M line happened.