[News] Eric Francis piece: "The Case for why the Flames will make the playoffs" - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Flames_F.T.W · 11-30-2016, 08:05 AM

Some optimism for your Wednesday morning!

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/c...make-playoffs/

CroFlames · 11-30-2016, 08:06 AM

Francis being optimistic? Better wait till tomorrow when he releases "Why the Flames will Miss The Playoffs"

Toonage · 11-30-2016, 08:17 AM

That's a refreshing change of pace for him, and I like it.

I also think he's right.

Last December the team went on a 7 or so game winning streak. Imagine if this team did that now, with their record and that of the Pacific.

Erick Estrada · 11-30-2016, 08:19 AM

There's no doubt that almost everything that could go wrong went wrong to start the season and I'm sure that eventually Monahan, Brodie, Gio, Elliott, etc will get back to their career norms. However I'm not sure they can afford to wait until the calendar turns to 2017 for these players to get their games back. It's not like the Sharks, Ducks, and Kings have played to their potential so I feel like they probably need to be ahead of those teams right now to be able to ride out the poor play of the top players in hopes they pick things up.

Also while it's easy to look at points and say they are right there but this team has played and lost more games than the other 29 teams so they are further behind the 8-ball than simply looking at points would indicate.

Super-Rye · 11-30-2016, 08:19 AM

Holy crap. This might be the first time I actually agree with Eric Francis.

The team has definitely taken a step forward from last year, even if the results aren't there yet. They're stronger with their sticks, more physical, and winning more battles. They're also getting some really strong play from their depth players. (Tkachuk and Ferland have been the best surprises IMO)

The guys who are struggling right now are the guys I'm least worried about. No doubt in my mind Johnny and Mony, Brodie and Gio turn their games around. Johnny, Mony, and Brodie will probably be even better than before, after the struggles they've gone through.

Honestly this team just needs to keep progressing forward. Keep improving their special teams, keep working on their consistency, and more importantly keep finding ways to get points. Once Johnny gets back this team has some serious potential to put a really good streak together.

Huntingwhale · 11-30-2016, 08:21 AM

The Flames have the most road wins in the conference? Amazing.

blender · 11-30-2016, 08:22 AM

He had me until "playoff birth"

FlamesAddiction · 11-30-2016, 08:22 AM

He must be gel'n.

CroFlames · 11-30-2016, 08:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blender

He had me until "playoff birth"

Well when a mommy playoff and a daddy playoff fall in love...

madmike · 11-30-2016, 08:26 AM

He's not entirely wrong. This team has had absolutely brutal "puck luck" this year. And the team's best players can only get better, as they're currently among the league's worst players overall. The Flames 5-on-5 advanced stats actually put them in the top half of the league.

But their special teams right now are so awful.

And they have the second-worst penalty differential in the league; they were 4th best in the league the year they went to the playoffs. Not all of that is attributable to the "Wideman effect", but I think anyone who believes there's no referee bias since the Wideman incident is deluding themselves.

I think in the end their special teams and the penalty differential will kill them.

GioforPM · 11-30-2016, 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by madmike

He's not entirely wrong. This team has had absolutely brutal "puck luck" this year. And the team's best players can only get better, as they're currently among the league's worst players overall. The Flames 5-on-5 advanced stats actually put them in the top half of the league.

But their special teams right now are so awful.

And they have the second-worst penalty differential in the league; they were 4th best in the league the year they went to the playoffs. Not all of that is attributable to the "Wideman effect", but I think anyone who believes there's no referee bias since the Wideman incident is deluding themselves.

I think in the end their special teams and the penalty differential will kill them.

The PK seems to have turned it around somewhat. PP is not good. Not surprising since GG seems to be defensive minded.

IamNotKenKing · 11-30-2016, 08:38 AM

This was similar to what some were saying about the Jays in June. Tulo wasn't going to stay hitting below .200, Martin was going to start to hit, etc. Once they got back to career average, the team was fine. Similar here: It makes sense that players will get back to their average, or at least close to it, which will bode well for the future.

Red · 11-30-2016, 08:42 AM

PK is better because Elliot isn't playing much. Johnson has been great.
PP is all about your best players, and they have so far been MIA.
Once Gio, Johnny and Monahan wake up they should improve.

And the Flames games played up to now may be a benefit down the road when fatigues plays a bigger factor. Flames will have more rest days.
For example, the Flames have played 6 back to backs and the Oilers only 1.

Textcritic · 11-30-2016, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

There's no doubt that almost everything that could go wrong went wrong to start the season and I'm sure that eventually Monahan, Brodie, Gio, Elliott, etc will get back to their career norms. However I'm not sure they can afford to wait until the calendar turns to 2017 for these players to get their games back. It's not like the Sharks, Ducks, and Kings have played to their potential so I feel like they probably need to be ahead of those teams right now to be able to ride out the poor play of the top players...

You don't think so? The Sharks were a bubble team two years ago with an aging roster, who caught lightning in a bottle heading into last year's playoffs. The Kings are likewise an aging team who historically struggles to score, and who lost their starting goalie to a long term injury. The Ducks also just made a coaching change, but are now playing under an old coach whose notoriety is for being an unadaptable relic from a prior era.

I would say that all three of the current division leaders look to be right about where they should be. On the whole, the Pacific division is not very good.

Philly06Cup · 11-30-2016, 08:59 AM

Anyone who talks about (road) wins or points without the context of games played just doesn't understand how standings work.

Red · 11-30-2016, 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Philly06Cup

Anyone who talks about (road) wins or points without the context of games played just doesn't understand how standings work.

What do you mean?

Bandwagon In Flames · 11-30-2016, 09:01 AM

It makes sense that someone like Francis would change his tune. Things are already so gloomy around the Flames that without some injection of positive topics Fans will just stop following the team and there will be nobody left to ready Francis' speculative garbage articles.

That said, it's hard to argue his points and it's been similar to what we've been saying on this forum. we're a few games under .500 having started the season playing like crap and having our best players play like crap. Once things average out I think we'll see the Flames inching closer and closer.

Would be nice if this could happen with 1 big win streak, but there's enough time in the season. This long road trip was a good building block even if we left some points behind.

tfi racing · 11-30-2016, 09:01 AM

Making the playoffs? Yeah,why not. Actually winning more than one game in the first round? Not very likely...

Erick Estrada · 11-30-2016, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Textcritic

You don't think so? The Sharks were a bubble team two years ago with an aging roster, who caught lightning in a bottle heading into last year's playoffs. The Kings are likewise an aging team who historically struggles to score, and who lost their starting goalie to a long term injury. The Ducks also just made a coaching change, but are now playing under an old coach whose notoriety is for being an unadaptable relic from a prior era.

I would say that all three of the current division leaders look to be right about where they should be. On the whole, the Pacific division is not very good.

I predicted the Sharks would take a step back so it's fair to say that 13-9-1 is where I would have expected them to be. There's no doubt this is not a division with an elite team but I think the three teams I listed are the odds on favorites to finish 1,2,3 and I don't think any of them have exceeded expectations so there is room for them to improve and the Kings will certainly improve when Quick comes back. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that the Flames could move into a playoff spot this season for sure but their best players need to start being their best players in December because the margin for error gets slimmer and slimmer every month that passes where they are still a below .500 team.

Red · 11-30-2016, 09:07 AM

The Flames have had a brutal schedule to start the season with new coach, new system and 2 top player with no training camp.
Played tons of games including 6 back to back games already. Only have 5 left rest of the season. Oilers have 10 left.
It's a miracle that they are a winning streak away from a playoff chance. Let's take that as a positive.