RFA Season - How much is too much

[spuzzum]

Interesting article from Sportsnet and the approaching RFA season:
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/w...razek-bennett/

Not too interested in the Leafs, but got me thinking about Monahan and Gaudreau with their upcoming contracts.

With compensation in mind:

Average annual value Compensation
Less than $1,205,377 Nothing
$1,205,377-to-$1,826,328 Third-round pick
$1,826,328-to-$3,652,659 Second-round pick
$3,652,659-to-$5,478,986 First and third-round picks
$5,478,986-to-$7,305,316 First, second and third-round picks
$7,305,316-to-$9,131,645 Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
$9,131,645 or greater Four first-round picks

How much is too much if either of these players received offer sheets? Flames could have made a few folks sour with their ROR offer 2 or 3 years ago.

[AC]

Gaudreau isn't eligible for an offer sheet.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/fl...ed-free-agent/

[spuzzum]

Beautiful news about Johnny. I assume Monahan is offer sheet eligible?

[AC]

Yes, Monahan is eligible but the Flames would match, except if a team offered a ridiculous amount.

Also keep in mind the compensation is determine not by AAV, but:

by taking the total value (salary, and signing/reporting bonuses), and dividing it by either the number of seasons the offer is for or five - whichever is lower.

This means that the offer sheet value is the same as the AAV if the offer is for five years or less, but for six and seven year offer sheets the offer sheet value will be significantly higher than the actual AAV.

For example, a seven year contract with a cap hit of $7 million would have an offer sheet value of $9.8 million ($49m total value divided by 5) - worth four first round picks instead of a first, second and third like a five year, $7m per year contract would be.

[spuzzum]

I could easily see a team offering Gadreau over $9,131,645 per year and pony up 4 1st rounders (if he was eligible). For Monahan, I could see $7,305,316-to-$9,131,645 being Two firsts, a second and third-round picks perhaps?

[Regorium]

I think I'd match any offer under 8M for Monahan, and anything for Gaudreau.

As mentioned, Gaudreau's is hypothetical but still.

Makes me wonder why offer sheets aren't used more often. They can be used to saddle your rivals with awful contracts - considering that in general, they would overpay for their own asset.

Basically, my opinion is that the chances of say, St. Louis walking away from Tarasenko if he got a 9.0M offer sheet is slimmer than you'd expect, and it shows when I just said I'd match an 8M offer for Monahan even though he would not traditionally be worth that much.

[Ashasx]

The player also has to sign the offer sheet in order for the Flames to be forced to match if they want to keep the player.

[AC]

The key in offer sheet fear-mongering is why would the player sign one? Perhaps that's the reason they aren't signed more often; the player is happy with his current team.

No reason to think Monahan wouldn't prefer to sign a long term contract with the Flames for very similar money to what any team would be able to offer.

Also here are the list of teams that have the required draft picks to make such offer sheets:
http://www.generalfanager.com/draftpicks/offersheets

Of those that have the picks for a $7,305,316 to $9,131,645 offer sheet, how many will likely have $8M in cap space for next year without doing some drastic moves?

[Travis Munroe]

I love Mony but if a none playoff team was willing to sign him long term to a big deal and it meant 4 1st round picks I would take it in a heart beat. It would sting short term and he is such a key guy to this team but you could literally package up a couple of those firsts to get someone of equal skill and still have 2 firsts to build around.

Does the flames first this year (assuming it is 5/6) + a couple more firsts get you Mathews this year? Does Mony straight up get you first overall?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

Does the flames first this year (assuming it is 5/6) + a couple more firsts get you Mathews this year? Does Mony straight up get you first overall?

Nope and nope IMO

[Dan02]

Another thing to consider is how few teams have the cap space to sign players to large RFA offer sheets, it's not as easy as it seems, and typically the teams with enough space to just add a 8 mil player to their team aren't looking to add that much to their payroll for internal cap restraints.

Teams might have 10+ million dollars in cap space available but they typically need to spread that over like 10 players not 1.

The Flames have roughly 25 million in cap space but only 13 regulars from last season on the roster, so we need to add 10 guys for that 25 million including Gaudreau, Monahan and a starting goalie. Sign those guys and a number 1 goalie and suddenly there isn't much left to sign the last 7 players yet alone toss an offer sheet, most of the competitive teams around the cap are in similar situations.

My numbers are just rough estimates.

[Erick Estrada]

I think the 4 1st round pick is only worth it on a generational talent like say McDavid.

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I think the 4 1st round pick is only worth it on a generational talent like say McDavid.

I think it depends who you are and where you perennially draft. A team that's always in the playoffs would have a lot less fear of losing out on a 1st round pick to gain a superstar in their prime. What were Chicagos last four first round picks?

[Oil Stain]

No one will bother trying to offer sheet the Flames duo because the Flames have a lot of cap space and the money to match any offer.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

I think it depends who you are and where you perennially draft. A team that's always in the playoffs would have a lot less fear of losing out on a 1st round pick to gain a superstar in their prime. What were Chicagos last four first round picks?

Yeah but teams that are always in the playoffs typically don't have the cap space to make such a massive offer.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

I love Mony but if a none playoff team was willing to sign him long term to a big deal and it meant 4 1st round picks I would take it in a heart beat. It would sting short term and he is such a key guy to this team but you could literally package up a couple of those firsts to get someone of equal skill and still have 2 firsts to build around.

Would you take (just as an example) #9 this year & #12 next year for Mony? Not a chance.

A team that's always in the bottom 5 won't give up 4 x 1sts in compensation for Mony. Teams that are on the playoff bubble wouldn't have good enough picks to make the compensation worth his value. There are maybe 1 or 2 teams that might hit the sweet spot where it makes sense but they would need to have their picks available and the cap space available.

[Jacks]

Just for maths sake a team making the following offers gives up the max compensation.

7 years @ $6.53M (easily matched)
6 years @ $7.61M (pretty sure Flames match)
5 years only buys 1 year of UFA
4 years only RFA years

I can't see Mony signing for less than 5 years, why would he when he'll probably get 8 years from the Flames? A team would have to specifically offer him a high 5 year deal, don't think many teams would or even could do that. A team would probably have to offer him $8M+ which is just ridiculous.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Regorium

Makes me wonder why offer sheets aren't used more often. They can be used to saddle your rivals with awful contracts - considering that in general, they would overpay for their own asset.

Well it's a double edged sword. I mean sure, we could offer sheet an RFA on a rival team and then watch them match and then be forced to overpay for the player, potentially hurting them long-term. But what if they don't match? Then suddenly the Flames are stuck with said awful contract that we are forced to overpay, potentially hurting us long-term. And if it's a horridly high number, suddenly were giving away multiple draft picks in addition to the cap hit.

Very easy to shoot yourself in the foot.

[lazypucker]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Well it's a double edged sword. I mean sure, we could offer sheet an RFA on a rival team and then watch them match and then be forced to overpay for the player, potentially hurting them long-term. But what if they don't match? Then suddenly the Flames are stuck with said awful contract that we are forced to overpay, potentially hurting us long-term. And if it's a horridly high number, suddenly were giving away multiple draft picks in addition to the cap hit.

Very easy to shoot yourself in the foot.

I will see all 29 teams will give McDavid a max salary offer sheet when he hits RFA. I don't see any harm in doing so - you either make the Oilers pay a lot for McDavid, or you get the generational player, who is definitely worth the 4 first round picks...

[smiggy77]

A proven franchise player for 4 first rounders is not worth it unless if it was the oilers who did it 5 years ago. Unless you're getting a top three pick everyone of those years, it makes zero sense.

You'll likely get four klimchuks/poiriers (good players by any means) which I don't think would be a top three on your team.

Also, no team in their right mind would give a qualifying offer for a Monny (johnny not eligible), they would be signed immediately or rather go to arbitration. I could be wrong as I don't fully understand the RFA qualifying process but that would be my interpretation.