Another flat out terrible one. Divisional rival gets Matthews, another gets Puljujarvi. We move down 2 spots and miss out on Tkachuk or Dubois. Only thing stopping it from being a 1 is the Leafs and Oilers get bumped down 3 spots each. Awful.
So this time Nylander over McLeod in a similar draft position.
Last time I merely pointed out that McLeod fits better with the soft Flames than the BPA.
A lot easier being in the top 6. 7-13 could be equivalent. Nylander and Keller are the BPAs that a team without Gaudreau and Monahan in their core top 6 might value more.
a 7 pick should have BT working hard on trading up or down.
So this time Nylander over McLeod in a similar draft position.
Last time I merely pointed out that McLeod fits better with the soft Flames than the BPA.
A lot easier being in the top 6. 7-13 could be equivalent. Nylander and Keller are the BPAs that a team without Gaudreau and Monahan in their core top 6 might value more.
a 7 pick should have BT working hard on trading up or down.
The beauty of this exercise is you get to take in new information every day. Bean rising, Brown rising, Chychrun falling ... and McLeod took it on the chin in McKenzie's ranking yesterday.
I'm not going to lie, I run one as soon as I see this up to see the results and after that I run it until I find a situation I'd give a 10/10. Today it took 12 times and I got Flames-Coyotes-Hurricanes with the leafs at 4 and oil at 5 nucks at 6. If something like that happens, I'll be the happiest hockey fan of the night.
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Fan of the Flames, where being OK has become OK.
If you ran this 18 times and have the Flames in the top 3 15 of those times you are the luckiest person alive.
I'm actually ahead of the odds, I'm winning by 1.2%
Or ...
and I'm just saying. You've ran it a few times a day and are picking the damn highlights!
LOL, I promise you I'm not. But that's how statistics work. They can only give you a probability, and in a small sample size, the probability usually doesn't equate to results. Over a large enough sample, it resembles the probabilities, but if you do it once, anything within the parameters can happen.
I mean 15/18 is an 83% chance. Our actual chance of picking top 3 is what...30%? Ok, so over a short sample you can see how odds don't mean much. I'm sure if I ran it 18 more times I'd probably get a top 3 pick 3/18. Another 18 times and I'm sure it would be like 4/18. Just how it goes.
However, it gives me hope on lottery day that good things can happen.
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"You know, that's kinda why I came here, to show that I don't suck that much" ~ Devin Cooley, Professional Goaltender
LOL, I promise you I'm not. But that's how statistics work. They can only give you a probability, and in a small sample size, the probability usually doesn't equate to results. Over a large enough sample, it resembles the probabilities, but if you do it once, anything within the parameters can happen.
I mean 15/18 is an 83% chance. Our actual chance of picking top 3 is what...30%? Ok, so over a short sample you can see how odds don't mean much. I'm sure if I ran it 18 more times I'd probably get a top 3 pick 3/18. Another 18 times and I'm sure it would be like 4/18. Just how it goes.
However, it gives me hope on lottery day that good things can happen.
Exactly
I think I was as high as 38% at one time with the Flames actual odds at 26%, then I slipped back..
I'm still clinging to the fact that I do better on weekends and the actual lottery is on a Saturday.
Canucks are in... that's bad
Oilers are out... that's good
The Flames are out... that's bad
Flames took the BPA... that's good
The BPA isn't Tkachuk or Dubois... that's bad
Canucks are in... that's bad
Oilers are out... that's good
The Flames are out... that's bad
Flames took the BPA... that's good
The BPA isn't Tkachuk or Dubois... that's bad
I dunno. Call it a 4.
This is all I could think of while reading this:
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"You know, that's kinda why I came here, to show that I don't suck that much" ~ Devin Cooley, Professional Goaltender
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Lottery Fix - April 28th
