Some 2015-16 Cherry-Picked Stats

[GranteedEV]

I pulled some stats from War-on-Ice.

In the 42 games since October 27th (the day TJ Brodie jumped back into the lineup) the Flames are:

1st in Penalty Differential (+43, 2nd place San Jose is +26)
5th in Goals-For Per 60 (2.8)
7th in Scoring Chances-For Per 60 (28.5)
9th in Shots-For Percentage (51.2%)

Since November 13th (the day Karri Ramo rediscovered his mojo) Ramo is 13th among goalies with 850 minutes played in Adjusted Save Percentage (92.25%)

In the 27 games since December 1st, the Flames are:

1st in Least Goals Against While Shorthanded (7)
5th in Goals-For Percentage (55.7%)
5th in Goal-Differential (+16, 6th place LA is +10)
7th in (Shorthanded) Fenwick Against Per 60 (70.4) (Unblocked Shot Attempts Against. Indicates the Flames are keeping the other team out of the offensive zone when they are on the PK.)
8th in Goals-Against Per 60 (2.3)
9th in Scoring-Chances Percentage (51.7)

[GreenLantern2814]

Brodie is elite, Ramo is league average at his best, and I'm not sure how to read the third part. Yay us? That goals while shorthanded stat seems impressive. I don't know what a goals for % is.

[Geeoff]

So are the Flames an unlucky good team this year just like we were a lucky bad team last year?

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

So are the Flames an unlucky good team this year just like we were a lucky bad team last year?

They are closer to an average team in terms of most of these stats of late (which is better than they were). OP as he mentioned - cherry picked stats that make the team look good.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

So are the Flames an unlucky good team this year just like we were a lucky bad team last year?

Nope not at all. They are full marks for their poor record. While goaltending has resembled a tire fire for a good portion of the season, the team has played very poor defensively at times, and it's been a one line team for the majority of the season. Biggest indicator of all is being 30th in both PP and PK. Pretty well the definition of mediocre/bad team right there.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Nope not at all. They are full marks for their poor record. While goaltending has resembled a tire fire for a good portion of the season, the team has played very poor defensively at times, and it's been a one line team for the majority of the season. Biggest indicator of all is being 30th in both PP and PK. Pretty well the definition of mediocre/bad team right there.

I wonder what the special teams %s are for OPs time frames?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

So are the Flames an unlucky good team this year just like we were a lucky bad team last year?

I would say, between cherry-picked stats and non-cherry-picked stats, that the Flames are on the wrong side of lucky this year, especially in close games. There are still things they need to shore up (possession especially when tied or leading, and power play scoring) but it's safe to say:

- this isn't a roster that "struggles-to-score"
- this isn't a team playing like a team with a negative goal differential
- the goaltending isn't a gaping hole. It'd be nice to have Carey Price but re-signing Ramo isn't the end of the world.
- the penalty kill is fine, and an example of why PK% is a flawed stat.
- most probably, they will go on a classic "Iginla Era" run to finish outside a wild card spot and outside a top draft pick. Might as well suck it up now - this roster just isn't "bad enough" for Matthews and the Finns even if they've dug themselves a massive hole.

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

I don't know what a goals for % is.

It means Flames have scored 55.7% of all goals scored in Flames games played since Dec 1st. Generally a sign of being one of the more competitive teams in the league. GF% of 50% means an even goal differential, GF% below 50% means a negative GD and GF% above 50% means a positive goal differential.

[SuperMatt18]

The team goal differential and scoring chance percentage has been really good since Dec. 1.

Issue has been timely scoring offensively, and mental breakdowns in their own zone.

It's not necessarily bad luck, as they have kind of deserved their own fate, but they certainly haven't been getting very many positive bounces either.

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

...it's safe to say:

- this isn't a roster that "struggles-to-score"
- this isn't a team playing like a team with a negative goal differential
- the goaltending isn't a gaping hole. It'd be nice to have Carey Price but re-signing Ramo isn't the end of the world.
- the penalty kill is fine, and an example of why PK% is a flawed stat.
- most probably, they will go on a classic "Iginla Era" run to finish outside a wild card spot and outside a top draft pick. Might as well suck it up now - this roster just isn't "bad enough" for Matthews and the Finns even if they've dug themselves a massive hole.

I'm not sure it's safe to say any of the points you made. We're average at best for goal scoring and most of our offense comes from our top line of F/D...which is a worry if injuries hit. Goaltending is pretty much worst in the league so I'm not sure how much worse it has to get before we consider it a gaping hole. And our penalty kill is last, so even if it's not reflective of our play, it's hard to argue it's a strength.

[Strange Brew]

So it seems when Ramo is playing well, he is a league average goalie. When not playing well, he can clear waivers.

I am OK with bringing him back next year since I'm not sure there are better veteran answers out there. We should be able to sign him for below average starter money, maybe $3 to $4 million for 2 years? Then spend $1 to $2 million on a veteran backup.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

I'm not sure it's safe to say any of the points you made. We're average at best for goal scoring

5th best over the last 42 games is average at best? I don't put much stock into those first 9 games where everything was a mess, as being half as representative of this team as the majority of the season.

and most of our offense comes from our top line of F/D...which is a worry if injuries hit.

Every team gets most of their offense from their top line, including the Stars and Panthers. The teams that don't are stacked.

Goaltending is pretty much worst in the league so I'm not sure how much worse it has to get before we consider it a gaping hole.

Goaltending is the worst in the league because they had one bad month? Since Nov 1st they're tied for 11th best Goals-Against. I put more stock into most of the season rather than one bad, and mismanaged, month. Even Rask had a bad month.

And our penalty kill is last, so even if it's not reflective of our play, it's hard to argue it's a strength.

It's last because it was bad in the first two months. That doesn't mean that it's the functionally worst PK in the league right now. If could very well be the best PK in the league right now, but PK% will tell you that because they couldn't kill a penalty to save their life in November, that it's been the worst PK all season.

Between Oct 1 and Nov 30th (24 games), the Flames allowed 19 goals against in 102.6 Shorthanded Minutes and 83 penalties taken.
Between Dec 1 and Now (27 games), the Flames have allowed 7 goals against in 87.8 Shorthanded Minutes and 72 penalties taken.

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Every team gets most of their offense from their top line, including the Stars and Panthers. The teams that don't are stacked.

It's last because it was bad in the first two months. That doesn't mean that it's the functionally worst PK in the league right now. If could very well be the best PK in the league right now, but PK% will tell you that because they couldn't kill a penalty to save their life in November, that it's been the worst PK all season.

Florida has 8 and Dallas has 6 players with at least 10 goals, while we only have 4. IMO, an injury to Gaudreau, Brodie (again), or Giordano would really cripple the offense. Again, I'm not saying our offense is bad...just that I'd hesitate to call our offense anything other than average.

As for the rest, our goalies and special teams have rarely won us any games and most times they've cost us games. Sure, if you exclude our worst 2 months, our stats look better. But I'm sure every other team would have some pretty decent looking stats if you excluded the stretches where they played poorly.

I guess we can agree to disagree but if we're a bottom team in the league and not gaining ground on the playoffs...but somehow our offense is elite, our goaltending is solid, and our special teams are great...something isn't adding up??

[StrykerSteve]

If I'm reading this correctly, Calgary has the best PK % in the league since Dec. 1?

Ah no, wait, it's not percentage, it's goals allowed. They have the fewest, but that's because they take the fewest number of penalties.