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Old 12-17-2016, 10:08 PM   #1
FlamesAddiction
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Default The Fall of Aleppo

A Vox editorial about Aleppo



Such a terrible situation. Hopefully we still capacity to take in more refugees.
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Old 12-18-2016, 09:29 AM   #2
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Aleppo didn't "fall"; a good portion was always under government control and the rest was retaken by the SAA.
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Old 12-18-2016, 12:24 PM   #3
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Yes, using the word "fall" is only correct if your sympathies lie with the various Al-Qaeda affiliated militias that have occupied Eastern Aleppo for the past 4 years. For everyone else (including the civilians who have been trapped as hostages and human-shields) its a Liberation.

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Old 12-18-2016, 12:49 PM   #4
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Yes, using the word "fall" is only correct if your sympathies lie with the various Al-Qaeda affiliated militias that have occupied Eastern Aleppo for the past 4 years. For everyone else (including the civilians who have been trapped as hostages and human-shields) its a Liberation.
All too often we look for 'good guys' and 'bad guys' in conflicts. This civil war is between a murderous dictatorship and an amagamation of religious zealots whose oppression might match or exceed the murderous dictatorship. While everyone is claiming moral outrage that the US didn't intervene, I would say as a third party there was no reason to add American lives to the casualties and risk a greater international incident with Russia for the sake of Islamist extremists.
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Old 12-18-2016, 01:54 PM   #5
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All too often we look for 'good guys' and 'bad guys' in conflicts. This civil war is between a murderous dictatorship and an amagamation of religious zealots whose oppression might match or exceed the murderous dictatorship. While everyone is claiming moral outrage that the US didn't intervene, I would say as a third party there was no reason to add American lives to the casualties and risk a greater international incident with Russia for the sake of Islamist extremists.
Obama basically said as much yesterday. No clear idea who to back, complicating Russia factor, would have to basically go all in and "take over Syria" or would have been a disaster for America and allies.
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Old 12-18-2016, 03:11 PM   #6
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All too often we look for 'good guys' and 'bad guys' in conflicts. This civil war is between a murderous dictatorship and an amagamation of religious zealots whose oppression might match or exceed the murderous dictatorship. While everyone is claiming moral outrage that the US didn't intervene, I would say as a third party there was no reason to add American lives to the casualties and risk a greater international incident with Russia for the sake of Islamist extremists.
Well not completely true, there as been and still is notable forces that have stood for what in comparison at least is a significantly more democratic ideology.

Unfortunately that force has mainly consisted of Kurds, who despite a lot of outside sympathy always end up getting abandoned as allies, as supporting them would go against the interests of pretty much every country in the region.

(Or in other words: everyone has allies that doesn't like the Kurds, and the Kurds are not strong enough to be worth alienating anyones current allies.)

(There used to be more of various moderate groups in this war, but what I've understood lack of outside support has lead to them either collapsing or joining with one of the Islamist groups with foreign support. In my personal opinion the current situation is to some extent an example of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The West did not want to truly support the rebellion in fear of the Islamists taking the rebellion over, which is one reason why exactly that happened.)

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Old 12-18-2016, 04:07 PM   #7
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Well not completely true, there as been and still is notable forces that have stood for what in comparison at least is a significantly more democratic ideology.

Unfortunately that force has mainly consisted of Kurds, who despite a lot of outside sympathy always end up getting abandoned as allies, as supporting them would go against the interests of pretty much every country in the region.

(Or in other words: everyone has allies that doesn't like the Kurds, and the Kurds are not strong enough to be worth alienating anyones current allies.)

(There used to be more of various moderate groups in this war, but what I've understood lack of outside support has lead to them either collapsing or joining with one of the Islamist groups with foreign support. In my personal opinion the current situation is to some extent an example of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The West did not want to truly support the rebellion in fear of the Islamists taking the rebellion over, which is one reason why exactly that happened.)
I still remember when during the election and I forget which one but one of the senior Liberal Candidates basically said that the Kurds were this threat to Canada.

It was such a stupid thing to say but goes to your point that the Kurds seem to always get abandoned or used as useful tools.
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Old 12-19-2016, 07:37 AM   #8
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I still remember when during the election and I forget which one but one of the senior Liberal Candidates basically said that the Kurds were this threat to Canada.

It was such a stupid thing to say but goes to your point that the Kurds seem to always get abandoned or used as useful tools.
Back in the 1980s, the Kurds in Iraq, Syria and Turkey enjoyed some support from the Soviet Union as some of their leaders were firm Marxists. It's one of the reasons the U.S. didn't mind propping up Saddam Hussein at the time.

The Kurdish Worker's Party is still officially listed as a terrorist group by Canada, the U.S., the EU and of course Turkey. And back in 2014 and 2015, there were members trying to claim asylum in Canada. I don't know if they would be a direct threat to Canada, but the largest terrorist attack launched from Canada (the Air India bombing) was carried out by a group that wasn't a direct threat against Canada.

As far as the semantics go about whether Aleppo has fallen, from a civilian and humanitarian perspective, it certainly has. The devastation is practically complete and it's hard to imagine that restoration will ever be possible.
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Old 12-19-2016, 09:41 AM   #9
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People seem to be overlooking the fact that it's the Kurds who Canadian forces are operating with in Syria, and that the Kurds are the American's closest allies in Iraq.

Do Western countries support them to the extent of carving out an independent Kurdish state by redrawing the borders of Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Iraq? No. That would be lunacy.
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Old 12-19-2016, 10:15 AM   #10
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People seem to be overlooking the fact that it's the Kurds who Canadian forces are operating with in Syria, and that the Kurds are the American's closest allies in Iraq.

Do Western countries support them to the extent of carving out an independent Kurdish state by redrawing the borders of Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Iraq? No. That would be lunacy.
The Kurdish groups are the best of a bad bunch. Their tactics are sometimes questionable, but at least their cause has a secular conscious.

An independent Kurdistan is just not feasible. They claim a huge swath of land, much of it resource rich and their settlements are not contiguous. Infrastructure connecting settlements runs through areas populated by other groups that have no interest in helping them form a state. They wouldn't even be a majority in their own country. Would a Middle Eastern Switzerland be possible? Istanbul is actually the largest "Kurdish" settlement by population, but it's not even in Kurdistan.

When nomads in central Asia were playing musical chairs for land, they held out for too long.
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Old 12-19-2016, 10:30 AM   #11
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Russian ambassador to Turkey has been shot and killed, allegedly in response to Aleppo. Video is readily available online but the picture does a pretty good job capturing the moment

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Steve HermanVerified account ‏@W7VOA 27m27 minutes ago
"We die in Aleppo, you die here" gunman quoted yelling as he shot #Russia ambassador to #Turkey. (Photo: @BurhanOzbilici/@AP)


https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/810892934438617088
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Old 12-19-2016, 10:44 AM   #12
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This is a crazy thing. Who is that guy? He looks like a member of the security team.

"Alluha akbar. Do not forget Aleppo."

Geezus what a mess. This has the feeling of not just being another war in the middle east. But what do I know? Not much.
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Old 12-19-2016, 10:48 AM   #13
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This is a crazy thing. Who is that guy? He looks like a member of the security team.

"Alluha akbar. Do not forget Aleppo."

Geezus what a mess. This has the feeling of not just being another war in the middle east. But what do I know? Not much.
It is a colonial backlash that hasn't been seen since the second world war forced Europe to divest of their world wide holdings.

Feels like we are in the midst of a redrawing of of the entire world map of power.
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Old 12-19-2016, 10:49 AM   #14
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This is a crazy thing. Who is that guy? He looks like a member of the security team.

"Alluha akbar. Do not forget Aleppo."

Geezus what a mess. This has the feeling of not just being another war in the middle east. But what do I know? Not much.
https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/810903767025598465

Looks like a member of the Turkish Police/Special Ops
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Old 12-19-2016, 10:49 AM   #15
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Was my favourite city I've ever visited. I was there in 2003. The history of the citadel alone was just incredible. Glad I saw it before it was gone, but sad to reflect on nonetheless.
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Old 12-19-2016, 10:57 AM   #16
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The shooter has been "neutralized" according to CNN and they aren't willing to commit to what that means.

According to that twitter link Cappy linked above, he has been shot several times by his fellow security agents and is most definitely dead.
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Old 12-19-2016, 11:02 AM   #17
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Oh yeah, he's definitely dead. Pictures and videos abound of that too.
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Old 12-19-2016, 11:27 AM   #18
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Member of the Ankara riot police. The government will spin it that the shooter was a Gulen supporter but I'd bet more that he was an Erdogan supporter.
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Old 12-19-2016, 11:41 AM   #19
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That's insane, surprised the Ambassador didn't have better protection given what's happening across the border.
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Old 12-19-2016, 01:02 PM   #20
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The Kurdish groups are the best of a bad bunch. Their tactics are sometimes questionable, but at least their cause has a secular conscious.

An independent Kurdistan is just not feasible. They claim a huge swath of land, much of it resource rich and their settlements are not contiguous. Infrastructure connecting settlements runs through areas populated by other groups that have no interest in helping them form a state. They wouldn't even be a majority in their own country. Would a Middle Eastern Switzerland be possible? Istanbul is actually the largest "Kurdish" settlement by population, but it's even in Kurdistan.

When nomads in central Asia were playing musical chairs for land, they held out for too long.
Kurdistan already has a de facto independent state. The Northern Iraqi autonomous state, used the ISIL chaos to expand not only their territory but also their autonomy. I can't imagine they'll agree to reinstate any kind of Arab rule after everything is said and done.

The Kurds may not go directly after territory in Iran, Syria, or Turkey, yet...but the Kurds are also one of the OGs. They've been around long before any Arab or Turkish state and know how to play the long game. The Kurds unlike other persecuted groups in the region, also didn't flee the area. The vast majority of their population still lives in Kurdistan. The Kurds will slowly set up an official state in Iraq. After that goal is accomplished they'll expand culturally into areas and take Kurdistan in incremental moves. Even if Syria doesn't go down this time, it will eventually.
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