Playoff chances - a look at 10 & 7 game segments

[zukes]

So after 10 games this team is 2-7-1, good for 5 points in 10 games.

It's amazing what a start like that will do.

Last year the two lowest point totals to make the playoffs were the Flames with 97 points and the Penguins with 98.

So over the next seven 10 game segments, an average record of 6-3-1 gives the Flames 91 points plus the 5 they have "earned" so far.

That leaves the Flames with 2 games left sitting at 96 points which would at least leave them in the hunt.

Seems damning.

If you use Bob Hartley's 7 game segment approach starting right now, there would be 10 of them left, plus the two last games. A 4-2-1 record would net 90 points and put them at 95 with two games left.

I still believe, but the Flames need to start their playoff push Friday. There can be no more slumps or this season is sunk before US Thanksgiving.

Speaking of, there is that trend that they mention every year that if you are more than 4 points out of a playoff spot by US Thanksgiving you are basically sunk. The Flames are 7 points back of the Blackhawks (who would currently cross over) with the 'hawks having a game in hand.

Can this team go 4-2-1 over 7 game segments or 6-3-1 over ten game segments?

[Northendzone]

^ given what we have seen so far it would seem unlikely the flames could play to that level over the balance of the season

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by zukes

So after 10 games this team is 2-7-1, good for 5 points in 10 games.

It's amazing what a start like that will do.

Last year the two lowest point totals to make the playoffs were the Flames with 97 points and the Penguins with 98.

Last year broke all records for the number of points required to make the playoffs, purely because about five teams were tanking for McDavid and giving out easy points to the rest of the league. The previous year, Dallas made the playoffs with 91 points.

The Flames are 7 points back of the Blackhawks (who would currently cross over) with the 'hawks having a game in hand.

Quibble: It doesn't matter that the Hawks would cross over. The Flames are only 6 points back of Vancouver and Arizona for third place in the Pacific. That's the only race that is likely to matter to them.

Considering those two facts, the team is in a bit less trouble than you make out.

[zukes]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Last year broke all records for the number of points required to make the playoffs, purely because about five teams were tanking for McDavid and giving out easy points to the rest of the league. The previous year, Dallas made the playoffs with 91 points.



Quibble: It doesn't matter that the Hawks would cross over. The Flames are only 6 points back of Vancouver and Arizona for third place in the Pacific. That's the only race that is likely to matter to them.

Considering those two facts, the team is in a bit less trouble than you make out.

The second part is true. My mistake.

The first part, I think Dallas making it at 91 was more of an outlier than the Flames at 97, but time will tell.

[Moneyhands23]

Thanks for giving a logical well thought out thread. Really gives good perspective.

Hey and who knows things could turn around for the boys. I think there was an 8 game losing streak last year and that's about as damaging as this start to the season, so there is some hope!

[Poe969]

This is sad.

I want the Flames to do well and make it. I want them to gel and come together and just dominate for the rest of the year, I just don't think they can at this point.

I really hope this year becomes a learning and growing experience for some of the younger guys on the team and some great trades are made to make this team even better for the next couple of years.

I'll probably get crapped on for this but I think at this point, the Flames have a better shot at Matthews then they do at the playoffs.

[YYC in LAX]

How many games below .500 were the Flames last year after the 8 game losing streak?

I can't seem to find the answer.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by Poe969

This is sad.

I want the Flames to do well and make it. I want them to gel and come together and just dominate for the rest of the year, I just don't think they can at this point.

I really hope this year becomes a learning and growing experience for some of the younger guys on the team and some great trades are made to make this team even better for the next couple of years.

I'll probably get crapped on for this but I think at this point, the Flames have a better shot at Matthews then they do at the playoffs.

It's a fair opinion/train of thought . I go back and forth on it as well. Really adding a top 3 pick would really set the team up, but you just never feel good about the team suckling that bad.

[JohnnyB]

Too many people freaking out on CP these days. I wish everyone would just calm down a bit. The team will probably be fine with time. They got far ahead of schedule last year. I think they can still stay well ahead of schedule this year too when they get it together as a team.

[crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Quibble: It doesn't matter that the Hawks would cross over. The Flames are only 6 points back of Vancouver and Arizona for third place in the Pacific. That's the only race that is likely to matter to them.

Considering those two facts, the team is in a bit less trouble than you make out.

It's sad that the pacific has gone from a powerhouse division to the bottom of the barrell in just a few short years. Every team in the division is ranging from fragile to terrible right now. Good for the Flames chances this year I guess, but still sad.

[zukes]

Originally Posted by YYC in LAX

How many games below .500 were the Flames last year after the 8 game losing streak?

I can't seem to find the answer.

Their record if my quick counting is right is that they were 17-15-3 after the OT loss to Vancouver that ended the streak. At this point I would be happy if they are 17-15-3 after 35 games. That would mean they go 15-8-2 over the next 25.

[Poe969]

It's never good to finish that low in the standings but the thing is, the Flames are still in a rebuild. Last year was awesome and amazing because of how it happened but before the season people were expecting the team to be in the McDavid sweepstakes. This year a lot of people thought they'd continue to play like last year and that's not fair to the team. Last year a lot of things went right and this year they're not. Finishing with a bottom 3 pick would suck but it would help set the team up moving forward. It's not like this team was a contender and fell on their faces so bad they got the pick. This team is still rebuilding the right way.

It's not like they're getting a top 3 pick year after year after year....that would be sad.

[troutman]

I think the Flames are done. To go 20 games over .500 the rest of the way in the Western Conference is extremely difficult.

Stick to the long term plan and don't make moves that are designed to help the team this year.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

41-21-10 required to get 97 points.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Poe969

It's never good to finish that low in the standings but the thing is, the Flames are still in a rebuild. Last year was awesome and amazing because of how it happened but before the season people were expecting the team to be in the McDavid sweepstakes. This year a lot of people thought they'd continue to play like last year and that's not fair to the team. Last year a lot of things went right and this year they're not. Finishing with a bottom 3 pick would suck but it would help set the team up moving forward. It's not like this team was a contender and fell on their faces so bad they got the pick. This team is still rebuilding the right way.

It's not like they're getting a top 3 pick year after year after year....that would be sad.

How much longer can you trot out the rebuild?

How many long term contracts will be on this team next year?

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by troutman

I think the Flames are done. To go 20 games over .500 the rest of the way in the Western Conference is extremely difficult.

Stick to the long term plan and don't make moves that are designed to help the team this year.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/W...c/Calgary.html

41-21-10 required to get 97 points.

Yup, this might be a blessing in disguise if it prevents more back Lund style "core money to a support player" type contracts.

Hopefully this has stalled out contract talks with Calgary's pending ufas.

[Domoic]

Originally Posted by troutman

41-21-10 required to get 97 points.

Fun Fact:

The Flames were seven points out of a playoff spot in 2006-07 at Nov. 1, then went 40-22-9 to make it.

Source? Elliotte Friedman

[Poe969]

To me, I thought the rebuild started the 2 years ago tops. I think the team is in the third year of their rebuild which isn't a stretch at all. The long term contracts are needed to keep the player here through the rebuild and into when the team is competitive.

I'm not sure if you're asking just so you can take a shot at the Flames or if you genuinely don't know because the oilers are in a perpetual rebuild and that's what oiler fans are used to.

When you have a Norris Trophy caliber defense man who's also your captain, you sign him to a long term deal. When you have a 22 year old stud defense man who's developing into a stud defense man, you sign him to a long term deal. Most teams don't reserve long term deals only for their first overall picks because most teams don't get many of those.

[polak]

Originally Posted by Domoic

Fun Fact:

The Flames were seven points out of a playoff spot in 2006-07 at Nov. 1, then went 40-22-9 to make it.

Source? Elliotte Friedman

That team had Mikka Kipprusoff and Jarome Iginla in their prime.

I don't think we can do it. This team hasn't shown reason to believe they could. Even when they play well, they lose. I think the top 6 will get it going eventually as they're looking good but goaltending and defensive play looks like it might be a problem. If we started off better, we might have been able to maintain a level that is good enough for playoffs but we are in such a hole that I seriously doubt we can play at a high enough level for the rest of the season to make it. We would have to all of the sudden become elite. I don't see anything elite about this team besides Gaudreau.

Sucks that our season is looking to be over before Halloween. All that bad karma from the No Good threads imo.

EDIT: 6 Points behind 3rd in the pacific sounds less grim than the OP. I think we could overcome that but we need a long winning streak starting tomorrow. Ortio taking over the reigns full time might be the spark for that?

[hockey.modern]

The season is not over yet.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Weitz

How much longer can you trot out the rebuild?

How many long term contracts will be on this team next year?

Oiler fans are the best!