Upcoming Cap Crunch

[Split98]

It's been discussed quite a bit around here recently, so I thought I'd take my own crack at the numbers to see what we should realistically expect around here.

Is Hudler really gone? Can we afford Monahan and Johnny? Who do we need to move to make the numbers work?

With our current roster, it's tight. But with a few realistic moves we are completely in the clear if I'm not dreaming here:

Gaudreau: $7,000,000 | Monahan: $7,000,000 | Hudler $7,000,000
Colborne: $2,500,000 | Bennett: $925,000 | Frolik: $4,300,000
Ferland: $825,000 | Backlund: $3,575,000 | Raymond: $3,150,000
Jooris: $1,500,000 | Stajan: $3,125,000 | Bouma: $2,200,000
Bollig: $1,250,000

Giordano: $6,750,000 | Brodie: $4,650,400
Russell: $3,000,000 | Hamilton: $5,750,000
Engelland: $2,916,667 | Wideman: $5,250,000
Smid: $3,500,000

Hiller: $3,000,000 | Ortio: $1,500,000

Salary Cap: $71,400,000
Cap Space: -$10,517,067

Hm... so not ideal

Let's fix that
Bollig: $1,250,000 replaced with Agostino: $925,000
Wideman: $5,250,000 replaced with Nakladal: $1,500,000
Smid: $3,500,000 repalced with Kulak: $656,667

Total savings:
$6,918,333

Close...ish

So even offering Hudler $5,000,000 is tight.

So, does this seem believable? We're only asking to move Bollig, Wideman and Smid. Moving Stajan in place of Bollig gives us even more breathing room. Moving Raymond really frees things up

I put together a Sheet here (probably the 5th person to make this this week):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Update: I forgot about Raymond... added now

[JiriHrdina]

Re-signing Hudler would be a mistake

[East Coast Flame]

Really can't see Jones coming back.

I also can't imagine Wideman's cap will just disappear - with a trade they will have some kind of salary coming back, or they will be on the hook for the buy out. Same with Smid and Bollig.

[renny]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Re-signing Hudler would be a mistake

re-signing Hudler wouldn't be a mistake, re-signing him at $7M however, would be a mistake

[heep223]

Would love to see Jones re-sign for about $2M.

Unfortunately I can't really see a situation where Hudler is here, unless he signs for $4M.

Lastly I don't think Monahan and Gaudreau will make more than Gio. I see them both at $6.5M max term deals.

[Poe969]

Hudler at 7 mil????? Russell will want a heck of a lot more than 3 mil. I think both Monahan and Gadreau sign for less than 7, I actually think a lot less. No to Jones, just no.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Split98

Let's fix that
Bollig: $1,250,000 replaced with Agostino: $925,000
Wideman: $5,250,000 replaced with Nakladal: $1,500,000
Smid: $3,500,000 repalced with Kulak: $656,667

Total savings:
$6,918,333

You're forgetting the most important calculation in moving out undesirable contracts; You're getting salary back or you're not moving them. That's been the trend in the NHL for a few years now.

The way these deals go now a days, is you phone other teams and say "I've got Smid we're looking to deal", and the other GM's say "Great, ,here's our version of Smid, we'll start there". If it were as simple as just moving out salary with no salary coming back, which you seem to be implying with your replacement table, then Brad Treliving would have moved Raymond and some other guys like yesterday.

Also, speaking of Raymond, you left him off your roster completely.

[Split98]

Math issue fixed in the OP. With the cap space on the pieces we have we can really only afford to offer him $5,000,000. Which is really where I'd value him anyway

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Re-signing Hudler would be a mistake

Player or money wise?

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

Really can't see Jones coming back.

I also can't imagine Wideman's cap will just disappear - with a trade they will have some kind of salary coming back, or they will be on the hook for the buy out. Same with Smid and Bollig.

I can't either. But I wanted to keep it as realistic as possible and make as few changes as possible to get a solid grasp on where we are.

But swapping him for Poirier really makes a huge difference and saves us $1,136,667 right there.

I agree on Wideman though. That really will be the pivoting factor in making this all work. Bollig is less imperative to move as we can really only expect to free $325,000 in moving him. Smid, I have a feeling will find a way onto another team. I can't back up why with facts, I can just see teams in need of a guy who hits.

[GreenLantern]

I have a hard time believing Hudler will be able to keep up this pace, especially at year 3 or 4 of an extension. I wouldn't mind the Plekanec deal for him, higher cap hit but very short term.. but anything else I would rather pass on the undersized almost past his prime winger and instead look at promoting a younger piece OR using him at the deadline to acquire that younger piece from a contender.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by jayswin

You're forgetting the most important calculation in moving out undesirable contracts; You're getting salary back or you're not moving them. That's been the trend in the NHL for a few years now.

The way these deals go now a days, is you phone other teams and say "I've got Smid we're looking to deal", and the other GM's say "Great, ,here's our version of Smid, we'll start there". If it were as simple as just moving out salary with no salary coming back, which you seem to be implying with your replacement table, then Brad Treliving would have moved Raymond and some other guys like yesterday.

Also, speaking of Raymond, you left him off your roster completely.

Good point. It really is pie in the sky.

And yeah, I totally forgot Raymond. Anyone know what his cap hit is if he clears waivers again? Raymond is really going to screw my optimism...

Edit: I can see why I missed him. He's not on the active roster here:
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/cap-central/team.php?team=CGY

Edit again:
With Raymond on, we have -$10,517,067 in cap space before moves. Optimism fading...

[jayswin]

Why are we taking Hudler at $7 as gospel? When it was announced that Giordano was looking for $9mil a year, most posters correctly pointed out that this is how negotiations work and that the final contract would be $2 - $3 less per year.

This is pretty much the same thing (only from an incredibly unreliable source), so I'm sure a Hudler deal is coming in closer to $5 than $7. You can still argue that we shouldn't re-sign him, and that's a convincing argument considering his age and who else we have to re-sign, but I highly doubt we're looking at a $7mil/yr contract extension with Hudler.

[CaptainCrunch]

The bottom line is that you offer Hudler a 5x3 contract and see if he'll give a home town discount to stay. If he doesn't then you have to move him before this becomes a distraction.

The risk for free agents now is that its expected that the cap is going to drop and the guys looking for big deals might end up on the sidelines. If you can appeal to his sense of stability there's a deal to be made that serves both sides.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Hudler needs to go. Jones Stajan smid wideman Raymond bollig

[Split98]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Why are we taking Hudler at $7 as gospel? When it was announced that Giordano was looking for $9mil a year, most posters correctly pointed out that this is how negotiations work and that the final contract would be $2 - $3 less per year.

This is pretty much the same thing (only from an incredibly unreliable source), so I'm sure a Hudler deal is coming in closer to $5 than $7. You can still argue that we shouldn't re-sign him, and that's a convincing argument considering his age and who else we have to re-sign, but I highly doubt we're looking at a $7mil/yr contract extension with Hudler.

Not gospel, I absolutely agree with $5M being what he should be valued at. But just taking numbers being thrown around and playing with them.

More of a "if this $7M thing is true... what next?"

[Locke]

Hes not really 'upcoming' hes been here a while.

He also sounds just like 'Norm' from Cheers.

The more you know!

[Poe969]

if it's true, we trade him for valuable assets.

[Split98]

Playing around with it more, it's abundantly clear that Jones' phone won't even ring. There's just no reason to keep him around with the roster the way it is.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Split98

Playing around with it more, it's abundantly clear that Jones' phone won't even ring. There's just no reason to keep him around with the roster the way it is.

He's leading the team in goals with 3 in six games.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

He's leading the team in goals with 3 in six games.

Oh I know, that's why I had him penciled in when I originally started looking at it. It's just that with the roster the way it is so far, letting him walk saves without having to make any moves. If we're debating letting Hudler walk, I think the Jones decision is made way before that.

[Strange Brew]

One saving grace to the slow start to the year is that if we are not close to being a contender, it makes it a lot easier to swallow moving Hudler at the deadline. Russell too.