El Niño 2015-2016 Supermegaultrathread

[BigNumbers]

I thought I'd start a thread to discuss the coming El Niño weather phenomenon that we're beginning to experience, and separate that discussion from the random musings weather thread.

Currently NASA is postulating that this year's El Niño will mimic that of 1997-1998, which brought a crazy wet and warm winter:



This year’s winter “will definitely not be normal,” NASA has said. It is, however, awfully familiar.

It’s not just the sea surface heights, like those above, that look alike—NOAA and NASA both confirm that they’re also seeing wind patterns and water temperatures that look eerily similar to the ‘97 conditions.

Researchers have been noting the budding similarities between 1997’s El Nino and our current conditions since early last year. With El Niño definitely having kicked off now, though, researchers are saying it will almost certainly peak this winter.


For those of us who's memories of Calgary's 97/98 winter is hazy, Environment Canada has a link to the top 10 weather stories from 1998 here: https://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/d...n&n=3DED7A35-1

- That the year began with the second mildest winter on record was remarkable in its own right. But what followed was truly phenomenal - the warmest spring, summer and fall on record. Temperatures from December 1997 to November 1998 were an average of 2.5 degrees warmer than normal and a full one-degree above the previous high set in 1981

- On St. Patrick's Day, nothing was green in Calgary after the city experienced its worst March snowstorm in 113 years. The airport recorded 32 cm of snow, but most other parts of the city received about 40 to 45 cm. Downtown Calgary was a ghost town. Motorists couldn't dig out of their driveways, and the bus system ground to a halt. For the first time ever, the Irish had to cancel St. Patrick's Day celebrations in the city.


What does CP remember collectively about the Fall/Winter/Spring of 97/98?

[rubecube]

Every kid who had school cancelled on that St. Patrick's Day remembers that snowstorm. I built a fort and a massive snowball fight with my sister and some friends.

[peter12]

I grew up on acreage in Priddis, and attended Red Deer Lake School. Every single family in our community had a 4x4, and everyone prided themselves on their ability to get through any weather. That March, we had our first snow day in about 70 years. We probably had two feet of snow in our lane, and I spent most of the day clearing snow from the front blade of our little John Deere tractor as my dad tried with little success to open up a space for our truck to get out. Besides the tractor, you couldn't hear a car engine anywhere. It was complete silence. I think it took two or three days before a plow was actually able to get to our house.

[Ducay]

. There were deadly floods in California, intense ice storms in the East, and a rash of tornadoes in Florida.

Hopefully they can get soaked with rain and we can stop hearing about the drought 24/7.

[socalwingfan]

I have been surfing every morning wearing nothing but board shorts and a tank top rash guard. Usually by this time, I am contemplating switching from spring suit to full wet suit. The water has to be 75 at least right now which is crazy for mid-October. Unforunately while we might get a crap load of rain this winter, prognosis is for little snowfall which we desperately need

[nik-]

For those of you that don't "habla espanol" ... El Nino is spanish for The Nino.

[Komskies]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Every kid who had school cancelled on that St. Patrick's Day remembers that snowstorm. I built a fort and a massive snowball fight with my sister and some friends.

I remember a neighbor and I spent the entire morning shovelling out our neighbor's driveway, probably 3 hours or more for the whole job, and at the end of it all she gave us $1 each. I've never felt more cheated in my life.

[getbak]

In December, I drove from Lloydminster to Medicine Hat on Highway 41. Around Oyen, there were fire trucks out in a farmer's field putting out a small fire. The field had spontaneously combusted.


On St Patrick's Day, I was working in Lethbridge, and spent most of the afternoon pushing people out of the parking lot until I realized that if I didn't leave soon, there wouldn't be anyone left to push me out, and I was driving a little Ford Tempo at the time. When I got home, the wind was swirling in front of my place so badly, that there was a bare patch of grass on the lawn, but about a 4 foot tall pile of snow on the sidewalk.

[Bunk]

Here was Calgary in terms of temperature

It mostly appears we were above average in November and December, then generally below average Jan-March, with a couple brutal cold spells.

[BigNumbers]

So then the consensus impact to Calgary, assuming it follows 97/98, is that it will be a bit warmer of a winter that starts later, but we're going to get smacked upside the head with some big-ass snowfall vs. avg?

[DoubleK]

I'm hoping this is right.

Looking forward to January golf at TPC Fox Hollow.

[polak]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Every kid who had school cancelled on that St. Patrick's Day remembers that snowstorm. I built a fort and a massive snowball fight with my sister and some friends.

I was able to jump from my second story balcony into the snowdrifts during that storm. That was the only time I had an actual snow day in grade school.

I hope "wet" means lots of snow in the mountains!

[Dion]

I was on a flight home from Phoenix when that St Patricks day snow storm hit Calgary. Pilot tells the passengers the airport is shut down and we have to land in Edmonton.

We landed in Edmonton and Delta decides to put us all on a bus back to Calgary. It's about 7:00 pm and the poor bus driver is having problems seeing the highway with all the snow on the road. IIRC he ends up following the tail lights of a semi all the way to Calgary. It took us 4 1/2 hours and when we get to the Calgary airport we're told there's no taxi's and travel on Calgary streets is not reccomended. I spent the night sleeping in the airport.

[polak]

Originally Posted by Komskies

I remember a neighbor and I spent the entire morning shovelling out our neighbor's driveway, probably 3 hours or more for the whole job, and at the end of it all she gave us $1 each. I've never felt more cheated in my life.

After all the crap my dad had always given me regarding getting the driveway shovelled when I lived with them and laughing in my face every time there was a dump, I was very much looking forward to sending him a picture of me enjoying a coffee and looking out the window while my condo complex is shovelled for us.... until he told me he's buying a snowblower

[Lubicon]

I was the only one on my street stupid enough to go to work that day. There were only a handful of us who made it in to the office that day and since all our customers werent in their offices either they sent everyone home at noon. Spent the rest of the day shovelling the driveway etc. We had a guy from our Abu Dhabi office fly in the day prior to the storm. He was British and living in the Middle east - I think he may have received a stereotypical view of what Canada was like that trip. Cold and covered in snow.

[ranchlandsselling]

Originally Posted by socalwingfan

I have been surfing every morning wearing nothing but board shorts and a tank top rash guard. Usually by this time, I am contemplating switching from spring suit to full wet suit. The water has to be 75 at least right now which is crazy for mid-October. Unfortunately while we might get a crap load of rain this winter, prognosis is for little snowfall which we desperately need

Where are you?

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Hopefully they can get soaked with rain and we can stop hearing about the drought 24/7.

If they get smoked with rain it will be a flash flood since the ground is so dry right now.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

As long as it means a better ski season I'm happy.

[habernac]

Lived in Edgemont during that storm. The only vehicles we saw moving in our neighbourhood that day were the A channel Hummer and a snowmobile. Took 3 hours to unearth the driveway.

[MacDaddy77]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

As long as it means a better ski season I'm happy.

It means the opposite

http://www.onthesnow.ca/news/a/10724...-in-the-u-s---


http://unofficialnetworks.com/2015/0...strong-el-nino