Cap structure - Shifting the money up the Lineup.

[GranteedEV]

If the cap is 70M, and you've got 23 players that means your average salary is around about 3M.

For a forward, that "average" is probably a player who's somewhere between a 3rd and 2nd liner. For a Dman, that's probably between a #5 and a #4. Mikael Backlund perhaps, who signed for 3.575 is a good example - There's a skew in his pay because centers tend to be worth more than wingers.

From a dollars perspective your big money should be tied up in:

2 centers
3 defensemen
~3 wingers
1 goalie

and then a third center that makes more than the other five bottom 6 players as well as a fourth defenseman in that same boat.

Let's say your goalie makes 5M a year.

Your top 3 D probably make about 20M a year. 8 for a #1, 6.5 for a #2, for a 5.5 for a #3

Your top 2 centers probably combine for 12M or so, though it can be higher.

Your top 3 wingers, let's assume they make 5.5x3 = 16.5.

That third center and fourth D combine for 7M if they're on Backlund-esque deals.

Okay, so where does that leave us? 60.5M in used cap space. We'll round that down to 60.

So 10M in cap space to pay:

1 backup goalie. - 1M?
3 more bottom D. - .7 (ELC) x 3
3 more top 9 wingers - 2.2 for a Bouma + 1.1 x 2
5 more bottom line forwards - .7 x 5

That puts you right at the cap. Basically the cap structure transition towards paying Bennett, Monahan, Giordano, Gaudreau, (Ortio? / Hudler?) in the next two years will make or break the Flames success.

1) You really gotta lowball the bottom of the lineup in the future, as the top of the lineup fills up with Gaudreau and Bennetts and Hamiltons and Monahan. You need a steady influx of players on entry-level contracts, so these replacement level guys - Mangiapanes and Carolls might need to make bottom of the lineup and perform. Can't give everybody a Bouma deal.

2) The cap will go up, sure, but the assumed salaries will go up with it.

3) Getting Gio down to 7M or less will be huge. It will mean we'll have about 2.5M in flexibility going forward from the assumed 20M a year above.

3) Backlund @ 3.5 + Wideman @ 5.125 is a bit over this budget. It pretty much eats into the aformentioned flexibility.

4) If Monahan and Bennett both make 6.5M a year, that part of the budget will probably be above the projected 12M by a million. I wouldn't bank on getting these two cheap, though if anyone could do it, Brad Treliving could do it.

5) Frolik makes 4M, so that leaves 12.5M left for Gaudreau/Hudler. It's optimistic but 6.5M for Johnny and 6M for Hudler would be convenient.

6) Hiller makes 4.5M right now, which is slightly under that budget. We will need to find a starting goaltender for 2016 and I would prefer if it were Joni Ortio and he were signed long-term.

7) 2 backup goalies (Ramo / Russell) - 3.8M + 1.0M
3 bottom D (Russell / Engelland / Smid) - 2.6 + 3.5 + 2.9
3 more top 9 winger (Bouma / Jones / Colborne?) - 2.2 + 4.0 + 1.275
5 more bottom line forwards (Bollig + Stajan + Shore + Ferland + Raymond)- 1.2 + 3.2 + .85 + ~.7 + 3.0)

= ~30 million.

Right now we've got 20 million in cap hit that needs to shift away from these lower roles and up to the top roles. Of them, Ramo, Russell, Jones are 10.3 million in UFA in 2016 (replacing them with 3 ELCs saves you 8.2 million). So that's really 12 million left that needs to be cleared if you choose not to resign these three (you can also replace Hiller with Ramo. Besides the point). If we put Smid on LTIR that's down to about 9M needing to be cleared.

Raymond + Bollig + Engelland expire as Bennett becomes RFA so that's 7.1M. Replacing the three contracts with some dirt cheap ELC players puts you at about 5M in savings.

That's still 4 million that needs to be tracked down somehow. Some flexibility should be there but it will be tight. Looking at the previous assumption "#4 Dman @ 3.5M" where Wideman is making 5.25M, his 2017 expiring contract saves us an additional 1.75M.

So really, we will be budgeting an extra 2.25M into the bottom of the lineup in 2017. Replacing the 3.2M that Stajan makes with an ELC solves that problem. He expires in 2018 if we want to keep him around. I'd prefer to move him sooner and get a better return, but much of that depends on whether Arnold, Jooris, Jankowski, or Granlund can make him expendable.

TLDR:
Every veteran except Hudler, Backlund, Brodie, Giordano and Frolik needs to go within the next 3 seasons, or take a HUGE pay cut.

[Hackey]

I don't really think there is any formula to it. Different teams, different situations.

[Travis Munroe]

Hudler @ 6 million?
He is one of my favorite players for what he has done to the team however he will not be getting 6 million. I could see him willing to take a bit of a discount to stay with a team he is very involved in and retire a flame. 4.5m?

[Hackey]

He finished 8th in league scoring last year. 4.5 would be an absolute steal.

[hockey.modern]

There's a potential he takes a discount as he said many times that Calgary is the place where he wants to be and he probably wants to continue his leadership skills to a potential cup contending team in the next couple of years.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Depends which jiri we see this season. If he is the same as last year 6 is fair. Term would be the question.

[Jacks]

IMO there is no way Hudler signs for 4.5M, he'd get 6M on the open market.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Hudler led the entire NHL in even-strength scoring.

Fluke or not, that gets you $$$$$$$.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Possibly give Hudler a retirement contract. 6 years at $27M (6,6,5,4,3,3) for a cap hit of $4.5M, with a NMC in the first 4 years of the deal. Gives him a big part in the team going forward and allows him to move down the lineup as he slows down without hurting the team or its bottom line. Not sure if he would take that, but that is good money and provides him stability down the line.

[Red Slinger]

What this indicates to me is that it's paramount to draft well and develop players properly so that you can have a steady stream of young players on cheap contracts littered throughout the lineup that can actually contribute. It's more or less what Chicago has done the last few years: hold onto and pay the stars and replace the supporting cast as they outplay their contracts.

The hardest part is getting the star players.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by New Era

Possibly give Hudler a retirement contract. 6 years at $27M (6,6,5,4,3,3) for a cap hit of $4.5M, with a NMC in the first 4 years of the deal. Gives him a big part in the team going forward and allows him to move down the lineup as he slows down without hurting the team or its bottom line. Not sure if he would take that, but that is good money and provides him stability down the line.

I wouldn't be surprised if he would go to UFA if that was the offer. See what he can get on a shorter higher value contract. Then can sign a lower value contract.

[MarkGio]

The Flames also carry excess players. If they wanted to trim fat, they could put the following players on the trade block and ice the following roster:


Gaudreau - Monahan - Hudler
Shore - Backlund - Frolik
Granlund - Bennett - Colborne
Bouma - Jooris - Ferland
Arnold

Giordano - Hamilton
Brodie - Wideman
Russell - Morrison
Wotherspoon

Ramo
Ortio

**Trade Block**
Jones
Raymond
Stajan
Smid
Hiller
Byron
Bollig
Engelland

It's awfully young and alot softer, but its cheaper

[T@T]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

Hudler led the entire NHL in even-strength scoring.

Fluke or not, that gets you $$$$$$$.

He's also 32 in January, odds are he'll never own that stat again, Hudlers good but not "exceptional" good, if his cap hit is over $5m I hope he likes his new city.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by T@T

He's also 32 in January, odds are he'll never own that stat again, Hudlers good but not "exceptional" good, if his cap hit is over $5m I hope he likes his new city.

Patrick Sharp as a 32 year old had 78 pts and was on Canada's Olympic team. He was a better player for a longer time than Hudler. 5.9 Was too much for the Hawks to keep him.

Patrick Marleau as a 34 year old had 70 pts and was on Canada's Olympic team... Last year 56 pts. Having him for 6.6 M really lessens the Sharks chances for the next 2 years.

The Sedins were extended as 31 year olds coming off a almost a Hudler like ppg season in 2012-13 to a 4 year deal @7M last season at age 32.... basically making Vancouver a non-contender until 2018-19.

If Hudler has a great season this year then he might be get 6M for 1 or 2 years. If he tails off to his career average 55 season he would be hard pressed to get his current 4 x 4 .

The Flames management have to be expecting Frolik to take his spot with 50-60 pts and were not able to extend Hudler for 3 years at less than 5.

Signing a 32 year old to a big long term contract is not a risk the Flames need to take.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Doubt the Flames are expecting career 20 goal/40 point player to get 50-60 points.

[Da_Chief]

I think Frolik was Hudler's eventual replacement. Frolik is bigger and do more dirty work. you don't need 3 stars on a line, Gaudreau and Monahan will be the main guys on the first line. Frolik can be a compliment player with them.

Hudler will be traded to recoup the picks lost in the Hamilton trade.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

What this indicates to me is that it's paramount to draft well and develop players properly so that you can have a steady stream of young players on cheap contracts littered throughout the lineup that can actually contribute. It's more or less what Chicago has done the last few years: hold onto and pay the stars and replace the supporting cast as they outplay their contracts.

The hardest part is getting the star players.

Chicago also does not win the SC or maybe even make the playoffs if Brad Richards doesn't play #2C for 2M.

It will be interesting when the elc/cheap players surrounding the core theory falls apart.... The Hawks added 8M in cap hit just keeping Toews and Kane.

[Sylvanfan]

Look around the league this summer. How much money has been thrown at players who are older than 32? Justin Williams got what like 3.25 for two years? Teams are no longer giving money and term to players that age.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

I think Frolik was Hudler's eventual replacement. Frolik is bigger and do more dirty work. you don't need 3 stars on a line, Gaudreau and Monahan will be the main guys on the first line. Frolik can be a compliment player with them.

Hudler will be traded to recoup the picks lost in the Hamilton trade.

Frolik is bigger but does not play a physical game.

Hudler/Wideman/Russell/Jones will not be traded for picks unless things go incredibly wrong. In that case they will not be bringing back a 1st round pick.

The window for the Flames to have a long playoff run is right now....

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Frolik is bigger but does not play a physical game.

Hudler/Wideman/Russell/Jones will not be traded for picks unless things go incredibly wrong. In that case they will not be bringing back a 1st round pick.

The window for the Flames to have a long playoff run is right now....

No. You're wrong.