Cap Averages - How to build a Team

[BrownDrake]

I compiled 18 teams, considered to be "playoff" teams or contenders to look at the mix of the top 4 forwards and top 3 d-men with regards to cap hits that make up those teams. Numbers based on players under currently contract for the 2015-16 season.

Average Cap Hit on those 7 players - 37.7
Average Cap Hit for top 4 forwards - 22.9
Average Cap Hit for top 3 D-men - 14.8

Highest Payroll - Chicago @ 47.6; Minnesota @ 42.1; Washington @ 39.6
Lowest Payroll - Islanders @ 33.4; Ottawa @ 33.9; Winnipeg @ 34.2

Highest Forwards - Chicago @ 32.2; Minnesota @ 26.4; Pittsburgh @ 26.3
Lowest Forwards - Montreal @ 17.3; Winnipeg @ 17.7; Islanders @ 18.0

Highest D-Men - Montreal @ 20.25; Winnipeg @ 16.5; St Louis @ 16.2
Lowest D-Men - Pittsburgh @ 11.7; Dallas @ 12.2; Anaheim @ 12.8

Looking ahead to 2017-18 season when Sam Bennett will require a bridge deal what will the Flames top 7 look like and how much room to sign the missing pieces to fill out these top 7 players to be average?

I am assuming we will have the following:
Monahan, Gaudreau, Bennett (+/-18.0) 1 Forward @ 4.9 to be average
Giordano, Brodie (+/-12.0) - 1 D-man required @ 2.8 to be average

I understand the cap may go up but also has its issues with a lower dollar, the probability of the cap being 10% higher is unlikely. If we inflate those positions by 5% we could add a Forward at 5.2 and a D-Man at 3.0 and probably maintain the average mix.

If you are a team that has a higher than average payroll at the forward position there is less money for defense and vice versa (Pittsburgh, Montreal, Winnipeg).

This analysis seems unlikely that the Flames would be signing or trading for any larger contracts passed the 2016-17 season if they feel their core 5 guys are where they plan to build around.

[handgroen]

Originally Posted by BrownDrake

This analysis seems unlikely that the Flames would be signing or trading for any larger contracts passed the 2016-17 season if they feel their core 5 guys are where they plan to build around.

good digging, i like your last point and potential future salary is a difficult thing to comprehend. Your post in a round about way does show that if the flames are to take on a bad contract for compensation it had better be off the books in two years. Just say no to contracts through 2020

[Jason14h]

There's also a big assumption Bennett is a 6 million dollar player in 2 years! Let's hope but the Flames should not be afraid to add players because in 2 years Bennett MAY need a larger bridge.

In 2 years we only have 2 players under contract. This analysis in 2 years will see those top players earning 15% more I would guess.

The league is moving towards a model where the top players get their $$$ and you fill out the lower levels with cheap youth instead of 3 million $$ vets.

[BrownDrake]

Should the Flames secure a UFA dman or one via trade at 5.5 per season and the top 3 dmen cap hits are 17.5 per - which would place the Flames second highest in this list, only Montreal higher.

Top 4 forwards, Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett (assume 16.5) plus the 4th forward at 5.5 per season - total of 22.0

Total cap hit on top 7 players would be 39.5 which would place the flames at 3rd highest, only Chicago and Minnesota would have more tied up in top 7 players.

If Monahan and Gaudreau have a similar year this season, we wont be signing them to shorter cheaper 2 year deals like Johansen. Couture got 6 per and Landeskog 5.6 per, I think Tarasenko goes over 6.5 on a 6 or 7 year deal. If Bennett performs to expectations we could very well have these three on longer term deals in the 18.0 per range.

There could be scenarios that push us well over the 40.0 mark with our top 7 players with out signing any high priced forwards.

As Jason14h says - please no longer term deals (past 16-17) for high priced talent until we see how Bennett develops.

[GGG]

Would looking at top 4 defensemen be better? I think that teams require a very solid top 4 to be a contender at that can be done buy pairing your top Gio type guy with a cheap young guy and have 2 good but not elite guys or you can have 4 good but not elite. So I think slicing it at 3 makes how the 4th defensemen is paid affect the averages.

In general though I agree with you that the flames bad contract window is more Patrick sharp than Mike Richards

[IgiTang]

Whoa.. You mention the Isle's, Wild and other big teams... But no mention of the Flames cap hit.
Last time I checked the Flames were more successful than many of those teams listed.

And to say those teams are "closer" is such a falicy due to the FACT the flames had more playoff success.

If not included, its essentially saying the Flames were a fluke and had no business being there which is absolute BS.

Just ask anyone on that roster who played in the playoffs.

Personally, I feel the Flames are only a couple pieces away from being an elite team.

[BrownDrake]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

Whoa.. You mention the Isle's, Wild and other big teams... But no mention of the Flames cap hit.
Last time I checked the Flames were more successful than many of those teams listed.

And to say those teams are "closer" is such a falicy due to the FACT the flames had more playoff success.

If not included, its essentially saying the Flames were a fluke and had no business being there which is absolute BS.

Just ask anyone on that roster who played in the playoffs.

Personally, I feel the Flames are only a couple pieces away from being an elite team.

Wow, think you completely missed the point.

I was simply compiling 18 teams that people generally define as playoff teams and how their top 4 forwards and top 3 defensemans cap hits were distributed.

The point of the thread is to look forward to the 2017-18 season and see how possibly our cap hits might be distributed between those positions and how that might compare to the current averages of those 18 teams.

I listed only teams that were either the highest or lowest in any of those areas with respect to cap hit, not my opinion of their prowess or success.

I love the flames too...

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

Whoa.. You mention the Isle's, Wild and other big teams... But no mention of the Flames cap hit.
Last time I checked the Flames were more successful than many of those teams listed.

And to say those teams are "closer" is such a falicy due to the FACT the flames had more playoff success.

If not included, its essentially saying the Flames were a fluke and had no business being there which is absolute BS.

Just ask anyone on that roster who played in the playoffs.

Personally, I feel the Flames are only a couple pieces away from being an elite team.

Flames may be a couple of pieces away from being elite

BUT they had the lowest point total of the 8 teams making the playoffs and got to play the #5 team.... Both the Flames and the #5 Canucks had inflated pts totals by playing the 2 tanking teams Phx and Edmonton so many times . Factoring out the freebie pts Vancouver and Calgary were the #7 and #8 teams in the West over the regular season.

The Flames should/could of have been matched up against Anaheim or St.L in the first round and the 11 year no playoff series win record would have been intact

[TorqueDog]

Because the cap ceiling / floor can move as revenues change, and a $6m player now wouldn't have been a $6m player three years ago, doesn't it make more sense to look at this in terms of percentages of payroll and not actual dollar values?

[heep223]

Originally Posted by BrownDrake

As Jason14h says - please no longer term deals (past 16-17) for high priced talent until we see how Bennett develops.

I always thought debating on the internet was like running on a treadmill, but it appears that I convinced Jason14h that trading for Phil Kessel was a bad idea

[Macho0978]

The hardest part about projecting the Flames cap situation right now is we have 2 guys signed going into the 17-18 season right now. That will change this summer. First thing the Flames have to do is figure out who they will be resigning long term. I expect that if we make a big trade this summer it will involve a RFA that is asking for a big raise. But I fully expect by the end of this summer we will have 6-7 guys signed into the 17-18. Next summer the Flames will be in a much better spot to plan on what big moves they can make. This year is 1 year too early

The 3 most important things when building into a cup contending team is drafting/player development, contracts/cap situation and timing. They all fit together but drafting and player development gives successful teams key contributors making less than 2 million which then gives teams depth and allows them to keep there top players for bigger deals. But alot of team get killed because they ignore timing and always think just this season alone. See teams like Chicago vs a team like Pittsburgh. Chicago is the most successful team in the last 6-7 years and the reason is they make tough decisions to get rid of guys even after they win a cup. They also have being doing a good job of drafting players and developing players even though they have been drafting late in the first round yearly. Pittsburgh is a constant buyer, especially at the deadline. Even though they have 2 players who are as good as they get it seems like they are always in need of fulling in the rest of their team with cheap UFAs who aren't key contributors due to constant trading of draft picks and lack of player development

The nice thing the Flames have is depth in prospects that should put then in a spot to have key contributors over the next 2-4 years that have low end cap hits. They also have control over a lot of their core players due to their age. But until they resign some players to give them more of an idea of what we have long term and when we can think agressively we should continue on the same path we have been of stock piling assets

[GGG]

I think the last year of Bennets entry level deal is a year we should be targeting a cup run. So 2 seasons away. After that paying full market value for our young guys will make it tougher. So if you have to sacrifice 2018 cap space for a 2017 run you do it and deal with the problems later. Not taking on others bad deals but a little over spending on free agents wouldn't hurt. Especially if anyone wants high cap hit short term type deals.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think the last year of Bennets entry level deal is a year we should be targeting a cup run. So 2 seasons away. After that paying full market value for our young guys will make it tougher. So if you have to sacrifice 2018 cap space for a 2017 run you do it and deal with the problems later. Not taking on others bad deals but a little over spending on free agents wouldn't hurt. Especially if anyone wants high cap hit short term type deals.

I think you could be right and in a 50/50 cap world you are going to have some down time. But still tough to predict this for sure until at least Giordano resigns. If he wants 9 for 5 years or more you have to consider trading him. If we trade him this changes the plan and I can't see us being cup contenders after next season

[Jason14h]

I always thought debating on the internet was like running on a treadmill, but it appears that I convinced Jason14h that trading for Phil Kessel was a bad idea

I never though it was a good or bad idea. Just that dismissing the idea all together based on his cap hit could be foolish for the team!

I'd still much rather spend money on stars then middle lineup players. IE The Raymonds and the Engle's of the world

[Sylvanfan]

How did you define the top 4 forwards? Top 4 paid or top 4 scorers? The current Flames top 4 forwards pay wise would be Jones, Hudler, Stajan, Raymond combine for under 15 million. The Flames have to be considered at least a playoff contender. I get the idea that the current top 4 guys in play are Gaudreau, Monahan, Hudler, Backlund who last year combined to make under 8 is going to get substantially more expensive and will get a makeover in terms of personell.

I know I would want to get certainty on the costs of Monahan, Gaudreau, and Giordano before I started to add higher cost players with termed contracts, or at least the riskier style ones. As an example Kessel and Phaneuf I consider as higher risk contracts than say Cory Schneider.

[BrownDrake]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

How did you define the top 4 forwards? Top 4 paid or top 4 scorers? The current Flames top 4 forwards pay wise would be Jones, Hudler, Stajan, Raymond combine for under 15 million. The Flames have to be considered at least a playoff contender. I get the idea that the current top 4 guys in play are Gaudreau, Monahan, Hudler, Backlund who last year combined to make under 8 is going to get substantially more expensive and will get a makeover in terms of personell.

I know I would want to get certainty on the costs of Monahan, Gaudreau, and Giordano before I started to add higher cost players with termed contracts, or at least the riskier style ones. As an example Kessel and Phaneuf I consider as higher risk contracts than say Cory Schneider.

Just the highest 4 forward contracts per team and the highest 3 defenseman contracts by cap hit. Didn't use the flames because I wanted to know what the average of other teams were to determine where Calgary may have to be in 2017-18 season.

In a Cap world the law of averages should tell you the best way to distribute your money (in this case on the top 7), if you are significantly higher than average (37.7 per) say 45/46 you might be in cap trouble (see Chicago at 47.6). If you overpay your top 3 defensemen you will likely have to have a lower payroll for your top 4 forwards (see Montreal).

The thread title should have a ? in it - I wanted to see how other teams distribute their cap money among those players and see how our players may fit into those averages and peoples thoughts on the mix between your forwards and dmen.

We need to be careful adding bad contracts or high priced players that do not perform, even older players with large cap hits where their future performance is less known. A bad contract in your top 7 is a boat anchor and limits your leverage and ability to make moves.

I dont think you can have over 40 million tied up in the top seven - most of those teams are in trouble this year an have less ability to sign their RFA's or add depth in their bottom 6.