Musk, Hawking and Others warn of AI Arms race

[Knut]

http://www.theguardian.com/technolog...nomous-weapons

Over 1,000 high-profile artificial intelligence experts and leading researchers have signed an open letter warning of a “military artificial intelligence arms race” and calling for a ban on “offensive autonomous weapons”.

The letter, presented at the International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence in Buenos Aires, Argentina, was signed by Tesla’s Elon Musk, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, Google DeepMind chief executive Demis Hassabis and professor Stephen Hawking along with 1,000 AI and robotics researchers.

The letter states: “AI technology has reached a point where the deployment of [autonomous weapons] is – practically if not legally – feasible within years, not decades, and the stakes are high: autonomous weapons have been described as the third revolution in warfare, after gunpowder and nuclear arms.”

Skynet upon us ?

Primarily they are worried about Autonomous AI, not human controlled weapons systems.

[Coach]

What would be the greatest technological breakthrough in history, and we find practical applications for AI outside of killing each other. Way to go humans!

[FlamesAddiction]

autonomous weapons have been described as the third revolution in warfare, after gunpowder and nuclear arms

That would change the playing field quite a bit. Stopping the proliferation of nuclear weapons is fairly straight forward. It requires a lot resources, facilities and easily trackable nuclear materials.

Autonomous weapons will probably go to the highest bidder and will probably be obtainable by low-level warlords if they have enough money.

[peter12]

In regards to AI, and the myriad problems that it would cause for humanity, I merely re-quote Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, “We Have Ceased to See the Purpose.”

http://www.americanrhetoric.com/spee...synharvard.htm

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Yeah, people like to dismiss this with references to Terminator movies or Hal 9000 or the like, but it's basically an inevitability... and once the threshold is crossed, there is no time to react, because the speed at which any AI would self-improve is beyond our intuitive comprehension.

[polak]

I kinda echo that sentiment.

Why are messing around with this?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Yeah, people like to dismiss this with references to Terminator movies or Hal 9000 or the like, but it's basically an inevitability... and once the threshold is crossed, there is no time to react, because the speed at which any AI would self-improve is beyond our intuitive comprehension.

I wouldn't call it inevitable, but given the current lack of citizenship, most people don't seem to grasp the substance of what it means to be a human living in a world with finite limits, and possibilities. Elon Musk has described the AI revolution as "summoning the demon." In essence, an attempt to impose supernatural power over our very natural world. The effects, at the every least, would be disastrous for human relationships, and institutions.

We are innovating ourselves into redundancy. It is the final irony of the modern framework that sought to control nature through the transformative power of our labour.

The revolution will be stalled, maybe stopped, by a revival of our politics or religions, by a realization that perhaps our technology is replacing the fundamentals of human happiness with a deep loneliness, or by the birth dearth. That is, political regulation, existential crisis, or nature may all have something to say as to whether this revolution is ever successfully completed.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I think it is inevitable. Here are two premises I base that conclusion on that I think are true:

1. There is nothing about human consciousness that is supernatural - that is to say, there is nothing in the biology of our brains that cannot, with enough time and research, be reproduced artificially.
2. Human progress in the development of computer systems will continue.

The second is arguably challengeable, in the sense that you could rationally take the view that we'll all either wipe ourselves out completely somehow or otherwise regress socially to a new dark age where progress halts or moves backwards. That's not that comforting, though.

[blueski]

If the AI looks anything like the fembots in Ex Machina, I will happily surrender.

[Tyler]

I'm more concerned about 'suicide bombers' just becoming bombers. You can strap a vest to a drone and fly it into a shopping mall, a sports event, or any other crowded location and not worry about being seen or arrested. Pretty scary stuff.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I think it is inevitable. Here are two premises I base that conclusion on that I think are true:

1. There is nothing about human consciousness that is supernatural - that is to say, there is nothing in the biology of our brains that cannot, with enough time and research, be reproduced artificially.
2. Human progress in the development of computer systems will continue.

The second is arguably challengeable, in the sense that you could rationally take the view that we'll all either wipe ourselves out completely somehow or otherwise regress socially to a new dark age where progress halts or moves backwards. That's not that comforting, though.

This is a contentious point, but it is always made rhetorically, so I could see how you would automatically believe it.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by peter12

This is a contentious point, but it is always made rhetorically, so I could see how you would automatically believe it.

Only with the religiously inclined, I think - there is certainly much we do not understand about the brain at this stage, but there is no rational, evidence-based reason to suppose there is anything supernatural about how it works (or how anything works, for that matter).

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Only with the religiously inclined, I think - there is certainly much we do not understand about the brain at this stage, but there is no rational, evidence-based reason to suppose there is anything supernatural about how it works (or how anything works, for that matter).

Definitely not only the religiously inclined.

http://www.newyorker.com/books/page-...ughts-are-real

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Tyler

I'm more concerned about 'suicide bombers' just becoming bombers. You can strap a vest to a drone and fly it into a shopping mall, a sports event, or any other crowded location and not worry about being seen or arrested. Pretty scary stuff.

Wouldn't this be possible now at least on a small scale?

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

^I think so, yes.

Originally Posted by peter12

Definitely not only the religiously inclined.

http://www.newyorker.com/books/page-...ughts-are-real

That's its own form of religious (or if you like, spiritual or numenous) nonsense, though, I think... As a philosophical thought experiment that's all well and good and extremely interesting and useful to consider. But it doesn't provide any rational or evidentiary support for the position opposite my original premise 1.

[CroFlames]

My favorite part about this reminds me of a quote I heard once (paraphrasing):

Scientists tell us not to freak out about Ebola - everyone freaks out.
Scientists tell us to worry about global warming - no one cares.

This new AI stuff basically falls into that category. Bright minds tell us to be careful with this AI stuff, but it certainly won't stop the US military from researching more and more into AI and developing AI based weapons.

I guess it was inevitable that humans would destroy themselves. Too advanced of a species for our own good?

PS: CHL I disagree there is nothing supernatural about the human mind. I don't think that simply over time, animals will evolve into smarter beings like humans have. A major jump in evolution needs to happen. Something inexplicable happened during evolution that made us so smart compared to everything else.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Wouldn't this be possible now at least on a small scale?

The amount of weight civilian drones can carry isn't much for explosives. (Unless you can get your hands on some top-grade military stuff.)

Also, drones are not that common yet, so your purchase would probably be easy enough to trace.

But they can carry a handgun, which means someone with the proper technical skills could go on a remote shooting spree.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

PS: CHL I disagree there is nothing supernatural about the human mind. I don't think that simply over time, animals will evolve into smarter beings like humans have. A major jump in evolution needs to happen. Something inexplicable happened during evolution that made us so smart compared to everything else.

The former proposition does not have anything to do with the latter. I don't know that over time some animals will evolve into smarter beings similar to us. I don't know that they won't, either - I am not a zoology PhD. I simply disagree that what made us who we are is "inexplicable" -nothing is truly "inexplicable". We just haven't figured it out yet.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Itse

The amount of weight civilian drones can carry isn't much for explosives. (Unless you can get your hands on some top-grade military stuff.)

That's not far off though - minor improvements will lead to great weight capacity. And also, consider the potential for chemical or biological weapons rather than just explosives.

[pylon]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Wouldn't this be possible now at least on a small scale?

Originally Posted by Itse

The amount of weight civilian drones can carry isn't much for explosives. (Unless you can get your hands on some top-grade military stuff.)

Also, drones are not that common yet, so your purchase would probably be easy enough to trace.

But they can carry a handgun, which means someone with the proper technical skills could go on a remote shooting spree.

Pretty much, and I am shocked it hasn't happened yet. For about +/- $8k you could get a octarotor, with enough payload to carry a heavy filming equipment and has the ability to be programmed to fly predesignated flight paths and about a 4 km range. Switch that camera for a cube of C4, a biological agent, etc.... and god only knows the carnage if that was flown into a stadium or festival crowd.

Also the payloads aren't absolute. You could certainly strip one down to the minimum, and overload it for a one time use. The payloads are usually recommended so you don't damage the drone. I have grabbed my Phantom 2 by the landing skid, and throttled it up to full. It is amazing the amount of lift that little thing has.