Flames: 42-28-7, 91 points, 3rd in the Pacific, 7th in the West, 14th in NHL.
Blues: 46-23-7, 99 points, 2nd in the Central, 3rd in the West, 6th in NHL.
It’s weird waking up today with no change in the playoff race. For the last couple of weeks it’s felt like a constant seesaw night to night, with tensions running really high amongst the players and fans alike. Fortunately, as of right now, the Flames have set themselves up well heading into the final 5 games. They are now 3 full points up on the 9th spot L.A. Kings, and 1 point up on the Jets for the final playoff spot, and they own the tiebreaker over both teams, which cannot change now.
Right now, the Flames odds of making the playoffs sits at 87.8%. Just a couple of games ago it was hovering around the 50% mark. Crazy how big the swings can be at this time of year. If the Flames win 3 of the next 5 games, they will almost assuredly be in, as the worst-case scenario with 3 wins and 2 losses puts them at 97 points. That gives them a 97% likelihood of making the playoffs with that record. Anything above that record will be virtually a lock to make the post-season. I should also note that the Flames have a 67% chance of being 3rd in the Pacific, which means a collision course with the Vancouver Canucks…just like ’04. I honestly can’t wait. Now obviously, if the Flames lose a bunch in the next few games, things will drastically change, so continuing to win and not being complacent is vital.
The Flames can learn what complacency does to a team by looking at the Blues of late. These 2 teams met roughly 2 weeks and 8 games ago, and the Blues manhandled the Flames, showing them what it would take to be a playoff team. I think they got the hint, going 4-1-2 in the 7 games since they met, with the lone regulation loss to a red-hot Wild team. The Blues have been fairly mediocre since then actually, and one can only assume that they got comfortable after beating up on the hardworking Flames so badly in their own building. They’ve played 6 games since our last meeting and have just 1 win in overtime to show for themselves, going 1-3-2, and 4-4-2 in their last 10 overall. Still, this is a team that has been dominating Calgary of late, going 5-0-1 in their last 6 meetings with the Flames.
Things aren’t getting much better for them either. Their leading scorer Tarasenko is out for tonight’s game, and Steen, their 2nd leading scorer, is still doubtful after missing the game against Vancouver. The good news is that Kevin Shattenkirk is back in their lineup after missing 25 games with an abdominal injury. Elliott looked downright terrible at times lately, and the questions about Blues’ goaltending in crunch time are rearing their ugly head again. In his last 3 games, Elliott’s average Sv% was an atrocious .807. This is why we are facing Jake Allen tonight instead of Elliott. Clearly something is not right with him at the moment. Now don’t get too excited. The Blues still have plenty of talent to win a game any given night, but when you look at the way they’ve been playing as a group, and missing their top 2 scorers and #1 goaltender, there’s a great chance for the Flames to walk in and get some revenge for the ugly losses earlier in the year.
I just have to shout out some love to a couple of players: David Schlemko and Deryk Engelland. Schlemko is a +7 in 14 games since joining the Flames on the 3rd pairing. That’s without adding a single point yet, so kudos to Schlemko for managing the game well and taking care of business. Engelland still has issues with mobility and handling the puck, but since Giordano went down he’s played double the minutes he normally does, and is actually an even player, compared to his -14 before, that done in limited minutes. Not only has his defensive game picked up, but he’s adding offense somehow too, scoring 7 of his 11 points in the same time frame. Everyone knows the job that the other defensemen have done all year, but without these contributions from two players who were complete afterthoughts, this team wouldn’t be in the place they are in now.
Roster notes: Byron did not skate yesterday, and it’s possible he will be out quite a while still. Ferland and Jooris look to be the scratches for tonight, along with Potter. Hiller is the confirmed starter. As mentioned, the Blues are without Tarasenko and Steen, and they recalled Ty Rattie from the AHL to fill in. Jake Allen is the confirmed starter.
Was a little disappointed to see Bollig draw in over Ferland however might be a good idea considering reaves, ott and jackman on the other side keeping them honest.
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Originally Posted by oilboy2 This deal is DONE, im not sure what the worry is. Heatly is an Oiler, just some paperwork to get done. This isnt another Nylander incident
Big game tonight, so excited. I can't wait to see Russell block his record setting shot tonight, Monahan and Jiri to get their 30th goals each and Johnny to pull away in the rookie scoring race. I haven't been this excited for a game in a while!
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Fan of the Flames, where being OK has become OK.
That's kinda why I posted those photos of Bollig fighting Reaves. St. Lou is a big physical team and Engelland is too valuable at the moment to be leaving the ice for 5 minutes, whereas Bollig can do so and it doesn't affect the game flow.
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"You know, that's kinda why I came here, to show that I don't suck that much" ~ Devin Cooley, Professional Goaltender
That's kinda why I posted those photos of Bollig fighting Reaves. St. Lou is a big physical team and Engelland is too valuable at the moment to be leaving the ice for 5 minutes, whereas Bollig can do so and it doesn't affect the game flow.
This is awesome because it's true. So many people wanted to just get rid of the guy and man did I get roased for saying that Engelland and Brodie were a good pair together. It's just good great to see that this guy has earned every penny of his contract down the stretch. Really like Engelland on the Flames.
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Fan of the Flames, where being OK has become OK.
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I like Engelland right now, but he still has more than half a season of disappointing play to make up for. Tough to argue that he isn't playing clutch right now though.
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"You know, that's kinda why I came here, to show that I don't suck that much" ~ Devin Cooley, Professional Goaltender
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He played well enough when he had to and others stepped up, when his time came he stepped up too. He's getting paid well but he isn't really getting paid to play as well as he has all season. I'm thinking he'll stay the course for the rest of year anyway and have a great game tonight too.
I'm really starting to dislike the blues too for some reason.
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Fan of the Flames, where being OK has become OK.
Blues seem to be a bad match for the Flames. They have size, speed, and play a disciplined style of play that doesn't give up many odd man rushes or lead to defensive breakdowns. Elliott was horrible against the Canucks but it seems like Blues goaltenders always play their A games against the Flames. Have to hope Allen is shaky and Hiller stands on his head otherwise it's going to be tough sledding.
Come to the point where tonight we need LA to lose more than we need to win. An LA loss gives us more breathing room more than a Calgary win with an LA win, as it would burn up 2 of their "gimmie" points against Oilers/Coyotes.
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Uhg I can never cheer for the oilers, regardless of the situation. I CAN however cheer for the Kings to score a bunch of goals on themselves and lose. Just a matter of perception
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What blows my mind is that, looking at the records, if the Flames would have won both the games against the Blues in regulation, they would have the exact same record with 5 games to go. That gives a little perspective on how impressive this season has been for the Flames.
Edit: I guess my math is wrong, Blues would have one less game played. Still impressive nonetheless.
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Flames @ Blues, 6 pm, SNW
