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View Poll Results: Who would you like to see the Flames play in the 1st round from the following
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Chicago
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2 |
1.45% |
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St. Louis
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1 |
0.72% |
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Nashville
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5 |
3.62% |
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Anaheim
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1 |
0.72% |
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San Jose
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79 |
57.25% |
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Vancouver
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50 |
36.23% |
02-06-2015, 08:59 AM
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#1
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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QOTD: What possible first round opponent would you most like to see?
Once again not a jinx!
The updated chances we meet in the first round table
Chicago 26.9%
St. Louis 19.7%
Nashville 19.3%
Anaheim 9.2%
San Jose 4.1%
Vancouver 3.8%
Winnipeg 2.6%
Minnesota 0.7%
Los Angeles 0.4%
Dallas 0.3%
Colorado 0.2%
Calgary 0.0%
Arizona 0.0%
Edmonton 0.0%
And I'm not polling all possible teams as I think too many would take Winnipeg for example.
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02-06-2015, 09:00 AM
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#2
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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was really tempted to remove San Jose and Vancouver from this poll. Thoughts?
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02-06-2015, 09:09 AM
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#3
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
was really tempted to remove San Jose and Vancouver from this poll. Thoughts?
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No way. Chances are looking pretty promising that the Flames could finish top three in the division, and if they do, then it will be one of either SJ or Van.
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02-06-2015, 09:11 AM
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#4
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In the Sin Bin
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Despite the size mismatch, I think the Shorks are the team we match up to the best.
Beating the Blues in the first round would be funny as hell though.
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02-06-2015, 09:13 AM
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#5
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Red Deer
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Tough pick between Vancouver and San Jose, but I think Calgary would be best suited for a first round series against the Sharks. Their record against them thus far this season speaks volumes, and I don't think that's a core built to make any sort of dangerous push come April.
__________________
"It's a great day for hockey."
-'Badger' Bob Johnson (1931-1991)
"I see as much misery out of them moving to justify theirselves as them that set out to do harm."
-Dr. Amos "Doc" Cochran
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02-06-2015, 09:14 AM
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#6
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: NC
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Vancouver.
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02-06-2015, 09:17 AM
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#7
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Thunder Bay Ontario
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I'd like to see them against the preds. I think they could beat them in a 7 game series and I think it would be great hockey. I hate watching the Flames play Vancouver because you never know when the canucks will do something dirty.
I'd rather see a series of really good hockey.
__________________
Fan of the Flames, where being OK has become OK.
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02-06-2015, 09:18 AM
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#8
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Flames fan in Seattle
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Brain says San Jose but heart says Vancouver a la 2004.
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02-06-2015, 09:19 AM
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#9
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Virginia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Once again not a jinx!
The updated chances we meet in the first round table
Chicago 26.9%
St. Louis 19.7%
Nashville 19.3%
Anaheim 9.2%
San Jose 4.1%
Vancouver 3.8%
Winnipeg 2.6%
Minnesota 0.7%
Los Angeles 0.4%
Dallas 0.3%
Colorado 0.2%
Calgary 0.0%
Arizona 0.0%
Edmonton 0.0%
And I'm not polling all possible teams as I think too many would take Winnipeg for example.
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I'm curious about those stats.
sports club stats gives us a 60% chance of finishing 2nd or 3rd and would be playing most likely one of Vancouver or San Jose. And only an 18% shot of finishing 7/8.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html
Wouldn't Winnipeg be about a 0% chance? The chances of either team winning the division, and the other getting the wild card must be in the lotto 6/49 category for odds.
Last edited by nfotiu; 02-06-2015 at 09:23 AM.
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02-06-2015, 09:20 AM
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#10
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: CGY
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Keep SJ and Van in as they could be likely opponents if we get a divisional spot. I picked Van slightly over the Sharks. If we play Van I think the Flames can win and the series will give the team the emotional boost to get to the third round or even SCF
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02-06-2015, 09:20 AM
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#11
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Franchise Player
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Vancouver would be the most emotional series, and they make for the most entertaining series. You would have to think it would automatically make for one (perhaps the best, depending on which other teams match up) of the best series for the playoffs.
From a 'chance to get past the first round', I would have to say either Nashville or San Jose. Flames match up well against them it seems, and neither team would really leave the Flames physically limping into the next round as St. Louis would.
I actually wouldn't mind seeing Chicago. They don't 'own' the Flames any longer. They were also the team the Flames last met in the 90's to start the long playoff drought, and then again in Keenan's last year when they were the 'upstart young team'. Revenge factor from that standpoint would make it interesting.
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02-06-2015, 09:24 AM
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#12
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nfotiu
I'm curious about those stats.
sports club stats gives us a 60% chance of finishing 2nd or 3rd and would be playing most likely one of Vancouver or San Jose. And only an 18% shot of finishing 7/8.
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western.html
Wouldn't Winnipeg be about a 0% chance? The chances of either team winning the division, and the other getting the wild card must be in the lotto 6/49 category for odds. |
Taken from the table at the bottom of the very link you provided
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02-06-2015, 09:26 AM
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#13
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Taken from the table at the bottom of the very link you provided
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I'm not sure what formula that page is using, but it's messed up. I assume it's using the old 1-8 Conference format.
The chances of meeting Chicago should be virtually zero, and every other Central Division team other than Nashville or St Louis should be so low that it rounds to zero.
The only way the Flames could meet any of those teams in the first round would be if either the Flames win the Pacific (extremely low probability to overcome Anaheim's 13 point lead) and the other team is a wild card team; or if the other team wins the Central (extremely low probability for any team other than Nashville or St Louis) and the Flames are a wild card team.
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Turn up the good, turn down the suck!
Last edited by getbak; 02-06-2015 at 09:31 AM.
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02-06-2015, 09:29 AM
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#14
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Virginia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Taken from the table at the bottom of the very link you provided
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Yeah, I see. The numbers don't jive with the top chart at all though.
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02-06-2015, 09:32 AM
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#15
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Virginia
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I think it would be more like
San Jose and vancouver around 35% each
Nashville, St Louis, Anaheim around 10% each
With everyone else not really a realistic chance.
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02-06-2015, 09:32 AM
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#16
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Some kinda newsbreaker!
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Learning Phaneufs skating style
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I think sportsclubstats is using the old playoff format in calculating first round opponent %. I don't think they are using the wild card format.
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02-06-2015, 09:33 AM
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#17
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nfotiu
Yeah, I see. The numbers don't jive with the top chart at all though.
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Is sportsclubstats possibly compiling the odds based on the old 1–8 sorting?
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02-06-2015, 10:11 AM
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#18
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Franchise Player
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A Canucks/Flames series would be beyond epic and I think we'd match up well against them. That series would remind me of the 2009 Flames vs Hawks series. Calgary was the veteran squad back then (VAN) and the Hawks were a young team in the playoffs for the first time in forever (CGY). Hawk went on a deep run that year. Not saying were destined for the WCF, but I could see us pulling that series out as a win.
While the Sharks are a team on the down-swing and they choked hard last year, other then that they usually come out of round 1 victorious. Since 2004 they have only lost in round one 3/10 times.
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02-06-2015, 10:15 AM
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#19
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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Working with a few broad assumptions, we can calculate the rough odds. Assuming that... - Anaheim is a lock to win the Pacific
- San Jose, Calgary, and Vancouver are so close that it's even odds that they each could finish in any of the 2, 3, or 4 spots in the Pacific
- Nashville and St Louis are so close that they're even odds to win the Central
- Anaheim and the Central winner are equally likely to be the higher seeded Division winner
- Chicago is a lock to finish third in the Central
- We ignore the teams that are currently not in a playoff spot, and assume Winnipeg will get one of the Wild Card spots
- Winnipeg and whichever Pacific teams ends up as the Wild Card team are even odds to be the higher-seeded Wild Card
...we can say that the Flames...
- Are 33.3% each to finish in the 2, 3, or 4 spots in the Pacific.
- If they finish in the 2 or 3 spots, are 50% each to face San Jose or Vancouver in the first round.
- If they finish in the 4 spot, are 50% to face Anaheim in the first round and 25% each to face Nashville or St Louis in the first round.
Which means (if my math is correct)...
- 16.7% to face San Jose with home ice
- 16.7% to face San Jose without home ice
- (33.3% combined to face San Jose)
- 16.7% to face Vancouver with home ice
- 16.7% to face Vancouver without home ice
- (33.3% combined to face Vancouver)
- 16.7% to face Anaheim
- 8.3% to face Nashville
- 8.3% to face St Louis
Winnipeg could overtake Chicago, but that wouldn't impact the Flames at all. Also, one of the teams on the outside could go on a tear and climb into the conversation, but right now, the Flames have a minimum 6 point cushion on all of them, which is very difficult to overcome at this point in the season. If that does happen, it either won't have an impact on the Flames if they end up 2nd or 3rd. If the Flames finish lower, they could miss out completely.
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Turn up the good, turn down the suck!
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02-06-2015, 10:16 AM
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#20
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Franchise Player
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Virginia
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
Is sportsclubstats possibly compiling the odds based on the old 1–8 sorting?
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I think so.
Using the top chart where they do get the seeding right,
Some quick and dirty math shows our likely opponents as (rounding will make it add up over 100%)
SJ 38%
Van 35%
Anaheim 8%
Nashville 4%
St Louis 4%
Winnipeg 1%
Everyone else under 1%
Not making the playoffs 13%
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