[GDT] Flames @ Coyotes, 8 pm, CBC (HNIC)

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Flames: 30 points, 14-8-2, 3rd in division, 5th conference, 10th league.

Coyotes: 21 points, 9-11-3, 6th in division, 12th conference, 24th league.


(American) Thanksgiving has come and gone, and the Flames are still in a playoff position. This is the point in the season where most teams currently holding a spot hold onto it and make the playoffs. There's still a lot of season to go, but the Flames have established a pattern for success, namely failing to lose 2 games in a row (in regulation) this year. They are 6-4-0 in their last 10 games, including games against Chicago, Tampa Bay, San Jose, and Anaheim twice, one of those being the dreaded cursed Honda Center game. It's easy to look at some of the advanced stats and say the Flames will regress and be one of those teams that doesn't make the playoffs, but for anyone who has watched this team and observed the amount of character they display you know it's highly unlikely at this point that they will falter that badly.

There's one stat that's a fairly accurate predictor of success, and that's goal differential. Currently the Flames have a +11 differential, which ties them with Vancouver, L.A., Detroit, and Minnesota for 6th in the league, all teams that are also likely to be in the playoffs. Technically their goal differential could place them as low as 10th, which correlates closely with their point total. It's important to note that only one team with a negative goal differential is currently in a playoff spot: Winnipeg with a -4. That's misleading, because the Minnesota Wild have a +11 differential and are 2 points behind the Jets with 3 fewer games played. It's only a matter of time before the Jets are out and the Wild are in. There are only 3 teams that are currently out of the playoffs with a positive goal differential. The Wild are one, and the other two are the Rangers and Senators, each with just a +1 differential, so for those latter two teams it's not a strong enough number to correlate to a playoff spot.

On the flip side, the goal differential for the Coyotes is -14, ranking them 27th in the league which is a close correlation to their current point standings. This is why only 2 players have a positive +/-: Rob Klinkhammer +3, and Tobias Rieder +6. Everyone else is well into the minus, including Oliver Ekman-Larsson's -15 (nobody is even close to that number), a guy that most people consider to be an elite defenseman. It doesn't help that Mike Smith has struggled all year, with a sub .900 Sv% and 3.26 GAA. It wouldn't be considered poor to have bad goaltending numbers on a bad team if Devan Dubnyk were not posting respectable numbers at .926 Sv%, 2.34 GAA and a 5-0-2 record. That's right, Dubnyk is playing better than Smith, but wasn't good enough for the Oilers. Stupid Oilers ruining their goalies.

The Coyotes come in having just 1 win in their last 5 games, which would make sense if they had been losing to good teams, but only 2 of those 5 games were against playoff teams, and one of those was Washington. Still, they were able to go into Vancouver not long ago and beat them 5-0, not something many teams have been able to do this year. When Tippett has them playing the right way they can be a dangerous and effective team. However, they just struggle to score or defend 5 on 5, with a 0.79 F/A ratio, placing them bottom 5 in the league. Their special teams are middle of the pack, but nothing too special. They should be very well rested, as they haven't played since Tuesday. Vermette and Yandle both lead the team with just 16 points in 23 games. There's just no high end talent on this team to get them past the rough stretches. But, if there's one thing the 'Yotes do well it's win face-offs, at 52.3% ranked 7th in the league. The other thing they do well is block shots. Ranked 2nd, just behind your Calgary Flames, they have 232 blocks, led by Michael Stone's league leading 64 blocks.

The Flames are on the opposite end of the face-off spectrum, 2nd to last at 46.1%. When Monahan is your most experienced center, playing just his 100th NHL game tonight, that's to be expected. Knight will rejoin the team as he was "demoted" temporarily on a paper transaction while Setoguchi cleared waivers and subsequently was assigned to Adirondack. Perhaps he can help win a few more face-offs until Stajan, Backlund, and Colborne get healthy. I'd be curious to see a correlation between Corsi/Fenwick and face-off percentage. Make it happen stat guys! Karri Ramo gets the start tonight after his shutout against the Sharks, as Hartley continues to ride the hot goaltender for as long as he sees fit. Speaking of hot, Hudler is now red hot with 5 points in his last 3 games, and Brodie has 4 points in his last 2 games to become the 2nd highest scoring defenseman in the NHL…behind Giordano of course. That's amazing.

The lines have been a complete jumble the last practice, so don't take these lines as anything more than a prediction, rather than an accurate report.

Flames
Glencross-Monahan-Jones
Gaudreau-Jooris-Hudler
Ferland-Granlund-Byron
Baertschi-Knight-Bouma

Giordano-Brodie
Russell-Wideman
Smid-Engelland

Ramo


Coyotes
Korpikoski-Vermette-Boedker
Rieder-Hanzal-Doan
Shinnimin-Gagner-Erat
McMillan-Vitale-Crombeen

Ekman-Larsson-Michalek
Yandle-Stone
Summers-Murphy

Smith



Go Flames Go!!!

[Moneyhands23]

Looking for the boys to put up 6 goals tonight!

[Red Ice Player]

Cali, your GDT write ups are great and just keep getting better and better. Thanks for the great work. With the way our team is playing, I really look forward to your thread on game days.

[Enoch Root]

Feels a but like a trap game on the schedule - hope I am wrong. Also, the Flames haven't been very good in the valley of the sun over the past few years. I have spent many a game in that arena just hoping for a goal.

But this is the new Flames, so maybe things will be different!

[Stormchaser]

Go Flames! 4-2 good guys!

Baertschi x2
Gaudreau (pp)
Russell

[Righteous1]

Seriously..flames have to play a boring yotes team on a Saturday?? Hopefully flames score first to keep it interesting

[Robo]

Keep up the intensity and get decent goaltending and we should be ok. I just hope calgary doesn't take them lightly and doesn't play to the level of their competition tonight

[transplant99]

Flames alltime record vs Wpg/Phx organization.

Wins: 83
Losses: 69
Ties: 20
OTLosses: 4
SOLosses: 2
Goals for the Flames: 642
Goals against the Flames: 592

[Tyler]

The Coyotes are the new Minnesota Wild. Yawn.

[taxbuster]

I'm just happy I can watch the boys and yell at my TV in Vancouver!! Don't even have to watch on the iPad.

They are a pleasure to watch, though scary sometimes -- let's hope they keep it together today and play the way we know they can!

GFG!!

[formulate]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

I'd be curious to see a correlation between Corsi/Fenwick and face-off percentage. Make it happen stat guys!

I've looked into this before, never got anything super interesting out, just about what I expected. The interesting studies I've seen have been time-based, showing who gets more shot attempts in the 10, 20, 30 seconds following a faceoff win/loss. Can't remember who exactly did those pieces, but I found it interesting.

Anyhow, here's Corsi and Fenwick vs Faceoffs for each team from the start of last season to now (just over 100 games). All numbers are at 5v5, score close situations (faceoff numbers as well). Fairly weak (but positive) correlation, you can draw your own conclusions out of it.

[Arya Stark]

Originally Posted by Tyler

The Coyotes are the new Minnesota Wild. Yawn.

I think you mean they are the new old Minnesota Wild.

[Arya Stark]

How many goals does Mike Smith give us by playing the puck?

Over/under 1.5?

I'm going with the under and he only gives us one goal.

[Harry Lime]

No wonder Arizona plays such a boring style of hockey. I hadn't been paying attention to the state of their lineup. They have all of the pieces in place for a very competitive 2-4 lines, and basically no first line at all, on a contending team. As far as I know there is not a lot in the pipeline to fix this problem for them. It's almost as if they are positioning themselves to become the Seattle Coyotes when it all falls apart in a couple of years.

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by Arya Stark

I think you mean they are the new old Minnesota Wild.

And they have been a bore fest since Tippett went there. So nothing new. Kinda glad Tippett never came here.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Arya Stark

I think you mean they are the new old Minnesota Wild.

Minnesota still bores me. Would rather watch paint dry. Parise couldn't even save them.

[djsFlames]

I'm gonna have to go ahead and say.. 8-7 Flames.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by formulate

I've looked into this before, never got anything super interesting out, just about what I expected. The interesting studies I've seen have been time-based, showing who gets more shot attempts in the 10, 20, 30 seconds following a faceoff win/loss. Can't remember who exactly did those pieces, but I found it interesting.

Anyhow, here's Corsi and Fenwick vs Faceoffs for each team from the start of last season to now (just over 100 games). All numbers are at 5v5, score close situations (faceoff numbers as well). Fairly weak (but positive) correlation, you can draw your own conclusions out of it.

I would have thought that the correlation would be higher than that, but honestly, I am not too surprised.

I have always felt that FOs are the most over-rated stat in hockey.

1) neutral zone draws are irrelevant and shouldn't even be included.

2) with respect to individuals' personal winning percentage, most draws are essentially ties and the FO turns into a scrum. Why they give wins and losses on those is beyond me. Call it a draw and move on.

The only thing that matters, IMO, is offensive zone draws on the PP, and defensive zone draws on the PK. Show me a guy who can win those, and then we've got something worth discussing.

[Finger Cookin]

NHL.com doesn't track zones for faceoffs (at least not to my knowledge), but I did a quick and dirty crunch on PP and SH FO% among the league faceoff leaders like Enoch talks about above.

Top 10 for all FOs:

Rank	Player	                   Team	FO%
1	Manny Malhotra	           MTL	63.2
2	Martin Hanzal	           ARI  59.9
3	Patrice Bergeron	   BOS	58.6
4	Paul Gaustad	           NSH	57.6
5	Tyler Bozak	           TOR	57.1
6	Lars Eller	           MTL	57.1
7	Jonathan Toews	           CHI  56.8
8	Joe Thornton	           SJS	56.4
9	Boyd Gordon	           EDM  56.2
10	David Backes	           STL	56.0

Top 10 for PP FOs (avg 1 or more PP FO per game):

Rank	Player	                  Team	PPFO%
1      Martin Hanzal	          ARI	73.7
2      Jonathan Toews	          CHI	68.0
3      Tyler Bozak	          TOR   67.9
4      Nicklas Backstrom	  WSH   65.7
5      David Desharnais	          MTL 	65.2
6      Adam Henrique	          NJD 	65.0
7      Anze Kopitar	          LAK 	64.7
8      Patrice Bergeron	          BOS 	64.3
9      Brandon Sutter	          PIT 	64.3
10     Mikko Koivu	          MIN   63.8

Top 10 for PK FOs (avg 1 or more PK FO per game):

Rank	Player	                  Team	SHFO%
1      Vernon Fiddler	           DAL	60.8
2      Claude Giroux	           PHI	59.5
3      Manny Malhotra	           MTL	58.3
4      Jay McClement	           CAR	56.9
5      Jeff Carter	           LAK  55.6
6      Jarret Stoll	           LAK	55.4
7      Ryan O'Reilly	           COL	54.9
8      Mikko Koivu	           MIN  53.3
9      Joe Thornton	           SJS	53.1
10     Martin Hanzal	           ARI	52.2

[ForeverFlameFan]

^ Wow, Hanzal is pretty good at FO's.