Canadian Jobs - Isolationism?

[Kavvy]

Is Canada selling away our resource based economy for quick profit and no long term growth?
This is my 5min essay on something which has concerned me and I wanted to see what others thought. Please tell me if I am fear mongering, or way of the mark.

The background:
I sat in a car and had a discussion with a gentleman who was deadly afraid of our children’s future when it came to careers in this country. His thoughts were that we were trading away our job opportunities for a quick influx of cash.
For example, we sell natural resource for the manufacture sector, yet, manufacturing in Canada is nowhere close to where it used to be and our resource selling has not decreased The jobs associated with mining these resources have decreased, along with a crippled manufacturing sector.

One side note- the above “facts” about jobs decreasing and resource output increasing, are not facts, just what appears to be “common knowledge”, which could indeed be wrong.

My crazy idea:
I came up with a fix, the problem is, I am far from educated on this matter, and would do more harm than good if I was in office (of course I am not, and if I was, I would have professionals study this).
My fix was simple – tariff our natural resource with jobs. State that the Government of Canada will organize a commission, which will look at every industry sector and assign a percentage of what natural resources organizations in these sectors pull from Canada, must have their end product made in Canada.
For example, x % of oil from Canada must be refined in Canada. This would put the pressure on the producers to ensure the industry builds refineries. Pipeline companies could not ship more than x% of oil that wasn’t “end product quality”. If an organization doesn’t meet a given long term deadline to create the facilities to ensure these goods are produced here, they get their licenced pulled.
Of course, you would need to study the economic impacts, and give a very long timeline for industries to get in alignment.
Another example might be:
If you would like to build a facility in Canada, which requires an Engineering stamp, or architectural review, x% of the total manhours for that Canadian project must be done in Canada. You could put an overall total manhour limit, and sub limits to protect entire sectors getting nailed. For example, saying 20% of the total manhours must be spent in Canada, may not stop an organization from shipping all of their IT overseas.
The theory is:
-We lose “some” foreign investment, our local organizations become disadvantaged in the world economy (higher costs at their base, aka Canada), and we potentially hurt relations with other nations
-We gain long term jobs, assume Canada is still considered a worthwhile investment. Yes, we are looking for temporary workers right now, but we need long investment, associated with high paying careers.

This “theory” hinges on our recourse still being needed by the world economy. If that goes out the window, we’re flat broke.
So what does CP think, is this a terrible idea? Would I violate NAFTA? Am I making a problem where one doesn't exist? Am I over leveraged on how much the world “needs” our resources? Would we all be unemployed?

[SebC]

Short answer: yes, it's a terrible idea.

We don't want to be refining because extraction is more lucrative. Value-added makes less and less sense the more it becomes apparent that the limiting factor in how much wealth we can generate from the oil sands is not how much oil is in the ground, but rather how quickly we can get it out before the world decarbonizes.

[GGG]

The other problem is trade generates growth. Canada produces more energy than it can use so in order to maximize our economy we need to sell it to someone.

Each item you list increases the cost of our exports. As the cost goes up investment goes down. As our Prive rises the substitution effect also takes over. What does it cost for renewables, other countries heavy oil, off shore, etc.

It would also lead countries we trade with from placing tarriffs on our goods.

[Bonded]

Well first off, you would have to get rid of NAFTA.

Secondly, one of Canada's biggest economic problem in my opinion, is not that it does not refine its natural resources, but rather that we are naturally reliant on natural resources.

It is an interesting discussion on the best way to do so. Let private industry figure it out, have the government incentivize diversification, or hope that we find another source of income that we can exploit from the earth.

CETA is likely to be ratified in 2016 and that will open up a lot of trade between the EU and Canada.

Finally, anything that would require a x% of Canadian work would be pretty damaging I think. I imagine it would just make everything more expensive. Canada has a relatively limited supply of skilled labour. I trade commodities, the cost that it would take to add manufacturing and processing power in Canada would probably make us uncompetitive with American commodities and would be a logistical nightmare.

I imagine it would actually decrease economic output or Canadians would be stuck with an even higher cost of living.

Seeing as democracy has a hard time planning more than 4-5 years out, we will probably wait until the resource economy peters out somewhat and figure it out from there.

[Harry Lime]

I'm not saying that any of the above answers are wrong, but I don't know if any of them are addressing the original concern. We are heavily reliant on the extraction of our natural resources, and we produce almost no finished product. When the demand for our resources diminish, the countries that do our refining and manufacturing can look for more localized sources for their raw goods, to save on transport and stabilize the lowered demand. We will be left with no structure in place to move to another sector to maintain the strength of our economy.

The private sector is what has created this disparity, and I don't know if they have an interest in looking forward to a drop in resource value, in terms of its effect on the Canadian worker. They would simply concentrate on the countries where they have already established a manufacturing base.

Would something along the lines of decreasing (or simply enforcing) incentives to companies dealing in resource extraction, and increasing the incentives for growing the manufacturing sector work? Royalties for many oil sands and other projects still sit at 5% due to lawyerly brilliance on their part, when the cap is at 35%. A transfer of that money into manufacturing should be enough to keep us competitive, and not raise prices above the global market.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

I'm not saying that any of the above answers are wrong, but I don't know if any of them are addressing the original concern. We are heavily reliant on the extraction of our natural resources, and we produce almost no finished product. When the demand for our resources diminish, the countries that do our refining and manufacturing can look for more localized sources for their raw goods, to save on transport and stabilize the lowered demand. We will be left with no structure in place to move to another sector to maintain the strength of our economy.

The private sector is what has created this disparity, and I don't know if they have an interest in looking forward to a drop in resource value, in terms of its effect on the Canadian worker. They would simply concentrate on the countries where they have already established a manufacturing base.

Would something along the lines of decreasing (or simply enforcing) incentives to companies dealing in resource extraction, and increasing the incentives for growing the manufacturing sector work? Royalties for many oil sands and other projects still sit at 5% due to lawyerly brilliance on their part, when the cap is at 35%. A transfer of that money into manufacturing should be enough to keep us competitive, and not raise prices above the global market.

What is Canada going to manufacture? Sure you can slap Made in Canada on it and have it be 15% more expensive, but I bet the average person will buy the cheaper product.

Maybe CETA will help out Ontario and Quebec, but Canada isn't set-up to be a manufacturing power. We are spread out and sparsely populated.

Just dumping money into 'manufacturing' will not help all that much unless you can make it cheaper than it costs to import.

Canada needs to find something else to make money off of. It will have be some kind of mix of resource and tertiary industries.

[afc wimbledon]

What canada really lacks is a federal level trades and apprentice program that is as good and respected as the university system.
We do a lousy job of creating the people that create the companies that diversify the economy.
We still view trades as some kind of grade 10 drop out choice instead of seeing machinists as being a damn sight more important to Canada than lawyers bankers or English majors

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by SebC

Short answer: yes, it's a terrible idea.

We don't want to be refining because extraction is more lucrative. Value-added makes less and less sense the more it becomes apparent that the limiting factor in how much wealth we can generate from the oil sands is not how much oil is in the ground, but rather how quickly we can get it out before the world decarbonizes.

The world may stop using oil for fuel but the demand and price won't drop, it is still the basic ingredient of plastic, lubricant etc

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Bonded

What is Canada going to manufacture? Sure you can slap Made in Canada on it and have it be 15% more expensive, but I bet the average person will buy the cheaper product.

Maybe CETA will help out Ontario and Quebec, but Canada isn't set-up to be a manufacturing power. We are spread out and sparsely populated.

Just dumping money into 'manufacturing' will not help all that much unless you can make it cheaper than it costs to import.

Canada needs to find something else to make money off of. It will have be some kind of mix of resource and tertiary industries.

There's plenty of manufacturing that doesn't rely on being the cheapest.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

What canada really lacks is a federal level trades and apprentice program that is as good and respected as the university system.
We do a lousy job of creating the people that create the companies that diversify the economy.
We still view trades as some kind of grade 10 drop out choice instead of seeing machinists as being a damn sight more important to Canada than lawyers bankers or English majors

I think we do a terrible job of promoting where people can go if they choose a career in the trades.

I also think a lot of places are not fostering innovation, or using the latest technology. Even when they do get an advanced piece of equipment, do they follow up and figure out how to maximize what it can do?

Even seemingly simple things to improve processes often die at the idea stage because not enough people in leadership positions have the wherewithal to implement them.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I think we do a terrible job of promoting where people can go if they choose a career in the trades.

I also think a lot of places are not fostering innovation, or using the latest technology. Even when they do get an advanced piece of equipment, do they follow up and figure out how to maximize what it can do?

Even seemingly simple things to improve processes often die at the idea stage because not enough people in leadership positions have the wherewithal to implement them.

As a youth worker it annoys me that BC has 4 universities and one institute of technology, that our high schools utterly discount student outcomes that don't end up in uni'.
It all fails to recognize that 2/3rds of all students are not going to university and are essentially written off in our present system, but that the more degrees you hand out the less they are worth, we have managed to get to the stage where we are charging kids 40 or 50 thousand to get a BA that is now seen by employers as no more than a grade 12.
When I left school in the late 70's you never needed a degree to be a cop or a social worker, you trained on the job and frankly they were better at the job.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The world may stop using oil for fuel but the demand and price won't drop, it is still the basic ingredient of plastic, lubricant etc

Those other things that oil is used for aren't enough to sustain current demand and prices. Demand for fuel oil plus the other stuff is more than demand for just the other stuff.

[#-3]

I don't see a lack of manufacturing being the long term down fall of Canadian Jobs.

Just my opinion, With Manufacturing jobs there are a few realities;

They are the easiest jobs to automate and replace with machines, so you constantly have to be striving to create new manufacturing jobs.

With half a percent of the worlds population, and probably about 10% of the worlds resources we don't need to worry about being a net exporter of resource, and a net importer of goods. The world will completely run out of resources before that becomes an issue for us.

A bit of a stereotype, but manufacturing jobs do not create desirable communities, they are too susceptible to booms and busts, Detroit and San Fran are good examples of this. In 2008 with all of its manufacturing jobs when Detroit went bust people left and it got worse, because those were car plants and nobody was coming in to take over those buildings and create new jobs. in 2000 with the tech bubble central Cali didn't fall apart, because the infrastructure failed companies left behind was useful to any company, so opportunists came in, filled the empty office space, and created new jobs.

To me, for us to remain among the "richest" countries in the world, a huge amount of focus needs to go into R&D in all areas. There is allot of money to be made in having Ideas, and it doesn't come at the long term costs you are worried about.

It does really worry me, that our government has shown any desire to support those who drive for positive change, that's where the great ideas come from. Canada seems vary comfortable with the world the way it is. We all need to understand that the world is and always will be changing, and the way to stay on top is by steering those changes (Designing the next windmill. Not building the last one.)

[redforever]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

What canada really lacks is a federal level trades and apprentice program that is as good and respected as the university system.
We do a lousy job of creating the people that create the companies that diversify the economy.
We still view trades as some kind of grade 10 drop out choice instead of seeing machinists as being a damn sight more important to Canada than lawyers bankers or English majors

And a lot of that change of focus is going to have to come from parents.

How many parents are fussing about what elementary schools their children should attend, public versus private, and the list goes on?

Those parents are not fussing about schools because they want their children to go to trade school later on.

They are fussing because they worry their children won't get into the right universities if they make the wrong choices for their children's schools at the elementary and secondary levels.

Government can add all the trade schools and other alternatives they want but until a change in focus comes from parents and students themselves, we are going to see more of the same. A lot of unemployed and over qualified university graduates with general degrees that give them training for basically nothing.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by redforever

And a lot of that change of focus is going to have to come from parents.

How many parents are fussing about what elementary schools their children should attend, public versus private, and the list goes on?

Those parents are not fussing about schools because they want their children to go to trade school later on.

They are fussing because they worry their children won't get into the right universities if they make the wrong choices for their children's schools at the elementary and secondary levels.

Government can add all the trade schools and other alternatives they want but until a change in focus comes from parents and students themselves, we are going to see more of the same. A lot of unemployed and over qualified university graduates with general degrees that give them training for basically nothing.

I think 'if you build it' or equally important 'if you don't build or pay for it' in the case of liberal arts degrees, if high schools are beaten into realizing that just because they (the teachers) took the easy option of a degree and then a teaching cert, that most of their kids shouldn't.
I worked in high schools, I still work with teens, our schools have woodwork and metalwork shops, auto shops that are empty and being sold off, while kids who arnt academic but would thrive learning a trade are shunted off to alternate schools. It's absurd, every school district should have some kind of trade school with industry sponsored auto cad courses and the like but we have utterly dropped the ball on this.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I think 'if you build it' or equally important 'if you don't build or pay for it' in the case of liberal arts degrees, if high schools are beaten into realizing that just because they (the teachers) took the easy option of a degree and then a teaching cert, that most of their kids shouldn't. .

I always love the hacking on those losers who took the easy route and got liberal arts degrees. I mean what can someone with an English degree do? How do I even have food in my fridge? I can't do anything!

And even better on teachers who took the even easier route and went to school for six years. That's way easier than going to SAIT for two years. We don't need educators, we only need welders!

[OffsideSpecialist]

Originally Posted by RougeUnderoos

I always love the hacking on those losers who took the easy route and got liberal arts degrees. I mean what can someone with an English degree do? How do I even have food in my fridge? I can't do anything!

I'm sure it helped you with writing on this messageboard - that is something!

And even better on teachers who took the even easier route and went to school for six years. That's way easier than going to SAIT for two years. We don't need educators, we only need welders!

Don't be ridiculous - everybody knows we need educators. However, it seems getting a teaching job is quite difficult compared to getting a job in the trades. You can't swing a cat without hitting someone that has gone through teacher's college and can't find a job. Even though the teacher has more years of education, the person that goes through an apprenticeship is certainly the smarter one in this deal - that is if they want to be employed and debt free.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally Posted by OffsideSpecialist

I'm sure it helped you with writing on this messageboard - that is something!

You got me there pal. Posting on this messageboard pays the bills. My job is just a hobby.

Originally Posted by OffsideSpecialist

Don't be ridiculous - everybody knows we need educators. However, it seems getting a teaching job is quite difficult compared to getting a job in the trades. You can't swing a cat without hitting someone that has gone through teacher's college and can't find a job. Even though the teacher has more years of education, the person that goes through an apprenticeship is certainly the smarter one in this deal - that is if they want to be employed and debt free.

In other words, getting a job you want is hard, so you are dumb to even try. Getting a job you would hate is easy, and that makes it smart.

Sounds like a recipe for a wonderful life.

I don't have a clue if getting a job out of "teacher's college" is tough or not. If it is tough right now, that'll change. It always does.

Are "the trades" immune to ups and downs, or are they all guaranteed a job forever?

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by RougeUnderoos

I always love the hacking on those losers who took the easy route and got liberal arts degrees. I mean what can someone with an English degree do? How do I even have food in my fridge? I can't do anything!

And even better on teachers who took the even easier route and went to school for six years. That's way easier than going to SAIT for two years. We don't need educators, we only need welders!

You should probably ask for some tuition back if you don't realize what I am saying is apprenticeships shouldn't be two years, it should take six years to be a welder, if you have a Canadian welding ticket it should indicate that you can weld in space with a couple of bottles of propane if asked, not that you can just about butt joint a couple of billets together with a stick rig.

You say you have a liberal arts degree and you are not starving, bully for you, but 40 years ago any Bacholer degree was a ticket into management, a great job automatically, entry into what now is reserved for a masters.
Now it qualifies you for nothing, you have paid 40 or 50,000 to end up where a grade 12 used to get you, it has been, from a purely practical point of view, a pointless waste of your money and our taxes, I hope at least you enjoyed it.

I have worked in schools in the toughest programs any teacher is ever likely to encounter, probation alternate schools, where I, with my grade 11 and nothing more, could hold the kids attention, teach a subject (I worked with a fairly burnt out teacher who would piss off to his office to play guitar once he realized I could teach anything but math) maintain discipline break up fights (everyday at times if we ended up with rival gang members in the program).
The teachers I worked with were mostly hopeless, as teaching is, ironically, not a teachable skill, some of them could teach naturally (ie had a personality, a sense of humour and some life experience), most couldn't and were run ragged by the kids.

[Kavvy]

Thank you all for your interesting responses. I would like to get this back on track from what I original sort of wanted from this thread:

Discussing ways the Govt can promote jobs within our economy by stating that we need to promote more trades jobs - great.

Throwing conversation grenades back and forth on whether or not a liberal arts degree is a worth while use of your dollars, and tax payers dollars is not what this thread is about.

What policy changes, if any, should our Gov't make to ensure long term, good paying jobs (including trades) are available for future generations of Canadians?

Aside of course from under funding liberal art degrees and funding trade programs.