Flames Personal Win Percentages

[ricardodw]

It seems that there is no published statistics that show the primary goal of a hockey team and the individual's contribution to it.

It is implied that if Iginla or Crosby score 50+ goals or put up 100 pts they will contribute to a team winning.

For most players whose primary hockey function is not to score goals but to prevent them or hold the other team even so that the elite players on your team can score enough goals to win it is harder to quantify their contribution.

I started this excercise as I think last year's Flame team was better than the 26th place showing due to injuries to key players. Glencross, Wideman, Giordano, Cammalleri all missed significant games and playing time.

How doe the team perform when they are in the line up as opposed to when they are not in the lineup.

I took the Flames players that played between 6 and 68 games and tabulated their personal win %. Sort of like goalies and baseball pitchers.

The Flames as a team had a winning % of .47 ... the 8th place team had a winning % of .55

The players highlighted in red are no longer Flames and just for comparison purposes I added the new Flames and Highlighted them in Green

[BACKCHECK!!!]

There are no published statistics like this, because it is the dumbest statistical analysis I have ever actually heard proposed in a non-joking manner.

[troutman]

This sounds like WAR in baseball; wins above replacement.

[Ped]

According to your Stats the Flames prmary players next year should be Engelland, Knight, Agostino, Hanowski, Bollig, and Van Brabant and they will be the best team in the league.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

"Wootherspoon"?

[edslunch]

Monahan is missing. Besides that, i don't think these numbers mean much without context. I think it's a bit more meaningful to look at how the team fared with and without a player - like when Gio was injured. Even that is suspect - depends on who the opposition was, who else was injured, and a lot of other factors. And I think this is quite meaningless for players with few games - does anyone think Hanowski or Agostino had any real impact in the games they played?

[Wastedyouth]

Much like pitcher wins and goalie wins and plus/minus and RGRIT (or whatever it was you called your grit stat), you've now created a new and completely useless stat.

[SebC]

Come on man, at least standardize to a team baseline - i.e. subtract the team win percentage from the player's win percentage so that you can fairly compare the likes of Engelland and Bollig with last year's Flames.

It's also worth noting that Goals Versus Threshold (GVT) and specifically Defensive Gaoals Versus Threshold (DGVT) is an attempt to quantify goal prevention. It's less comprehensive than your index, but it's also subject to less noise from fluctuations in team performance.

I'm actually surprised at how intuitively reasonable your results look, if you ignore the guys with small sample sizes, big sample sizes (because it means games missed is a small sample size, and will push players very close to the team average), and who played on other teams.

(A guy who plays 82 games will be perfectly team average, even if he's Gretzky, Orr and Lemieux mixed into one.)

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by troutman

This sounds like WAR in baseball; wins above replacement.

WAR is a lot different (Wins above replacement)

it's basically adding up a bunch of different stats to show how many wins a player will effect above a replacement level player (i.e essentially a minor league player) on average over 162 games

this is just counting wins with no bearing on an individuals contribution

there's a reason why there has been such a push in Cy Young and Vezina voting over the past few years to complete ignore W/L numbers, they are white noise

[RyZ]

I wonder what Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberles career win % are. Probably so low that they may never get back over .500.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

WAR is a lot different (Wins above replacement)

it's basically adding up a bunch of different stats to show how many wins a player will effect above a replacement level player (i.e essentially a minor league player) on average over 162 games

this is just counting wins with no bearing on an individuals contribution

there's a reason why there has been such a push in Cy Young and Vezina voting over the past few years to complete ignore W/L numbers, they are white noise

I think GVT is similar to WAR, but measured in goals instead of wins (it's a simple conversion, though).

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Monahan is missing. Besides that, i don't think these numbers mean much without context. I think it's a bit more meaningful to look at how the team fared with and without a player - like when Gio was injured. Even that is suspect - depends on who the opposition was, who else was injured, and a lot of other factors. And I think this is quite meaningless for players with few games - does anyone think Hanowski or Agostino had any real impact in the games they played?

Chris Butler
TJ Brodie
Joe Colborne
Lance Bouma
Mikael Backlund
Brian McGrattan
Jiri Hudler
Sean Monahan

all played most of the Flames games. There would not be enough of a variance away from the flames overall .47 winning %.

This is a comparison of how the Flames played with and without Gio.

Over the year they were .47... with Gio they were .51 that means that without him they would have been 5-11-2 somewhere around .33 and within rounding error of being the worst team in the league. Sabres win % for the year was .32


Hankowski and Agustino Van Brabant and Knight played a few games games... They all went out , as should be expected from some young guys working hard and trying to make an impression, and made some hits.

Did this extra aggression (truculence) influence the outcome of the games they were in?



On the Flip side Granlund and Reinhart and Billins came up and played their skilled positional game (virtually no hits) and the Flames did poorly (even by the Flames standards)

It may have helped that Hankowski and Agustino, Van Brabant and Knight played their games with Giordano in the lineup.

If somehow Agustino or Hankowski starts the year (playing 10 minutes/game) and the Flames are 7-3 after 10 games do you think they will get sent down to make room for Granlund or Rienhart?

I also found it interesting that the Flames were really close to a playoff team with the same bunch of players just by adding in the uninterested, floating Glencross.

[FBI]

Well I might be the only one but I kind of enjoyed reading those numbers.

[GGG]

All of the basement Analytics will be gone in the next 5 years.

The SportsVu system will make all of these types of meaures redundant. Some really neat stuff going on in Basketball where you can actually measure a players contribuition to creating open space. I think a measure of this type will what will support a players contribution to wins.

Essentially if as a forward you cause the defense to shift a few feet toward you more than the average player you create more space for the rest of hte team. On defense if players avoid you by a few feet you shrunk the rest of the ice down. These numbers are coming and you will no longer be limited by samplesize because every second of every player will be recorded and measured.

The type of stats above are interesting hiwever if you applied any statistical rigor to them the error bars would render it meaningless.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

It seems that there is no published statistics that show the primary goal of a hockey team and the individual's contribution to it.

I don't think you have shown at all with your numbers how a player is contributing to wins. You're not comparing records without the player (as far as I can see), you're not taking into account minutes played. This is at best an attempt to persuade someone that correlation is more than what it actually is.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by the2bears

I don't think you have shown at all with your numbers how a player is contributing to wins. You're not comparing records without the player (as far as I can see), you're not taking into account minutes played. This is at best an attempt to persuade someone that correlation is more than what it actually is.

Not a lot of numbers.

The team record is the the record without the player. That shouldn't be that hard of a concept.

This quick look does Not taking into account the minutes played, the shots taken at the net , the level of the opposition and all the clumsily measured stats that vary from rink to rink and are not validated.... These are the base stats that CORSI is based on.

A win is a win and a loss is a loss.

It is a team game and in a well trained world even the role players are significant in a teams success. This is no longer 1970 where the Bruins went with 2 lines and Sanderson and Westfall killing penalities and 4 defensemen.


I think I will call this the Al Davis Stats ADS --- Just Win Baby


This is a bottom line statistical analysis...

base on the play last year the Flames are a really crappy team with Stajan in the line-up.... whether he plays 10-15 or 20 minutes. Whether or not Stajan looks good or looks like he is trying....

They are a much better team with Glencross and Girodano in the line up.


They did a lot better with the more aggressive prospects playing than they did with the more skilled more timid prospects.

Blair Jones , despite his inability to get along with the coaches... did not hurt the team when he was in the line-up..... The team would have done better with him dressing for more games and Stajan less.


The team was worse performing with their veteran "leaders" Cammalleri and Stempniak than they were when these guys were not in the line up.

I think that Wideman playing hurt and putting in a lot of minutes with a broken hand significantly depressed the Flames ability to win with him in the line-up.

[transplant99]

It makes me sad that so many are trying to make hockey into baseball...ugh. Internet warriors.

Eyeball test is the most accurate way of deciding how important a player is or is not...always has been and always will be.

Again...ugh.

[MarkGio]

I prefer player usage charts the most. But still like to see interesting methods along the way.

I wish minor leagues had better stats. And I especially wish fantasy leagues used advance stats

[BACKCHECK!!!]

The flaw in the premise is easy to spot, but also easy to remedy.

The goal here isn't to win games.

The goal is the win the Stanley Cup.

So what you really want to do is to add up how many Stanley Cup rings each player has. If you want to get all fancy and statistical you can see how many Stanley Cups each team has won with and without a given a given player.

If you want to win a Stanley Cup, you just need to collect players who have won Stanley Cups. That's the REAL reason the Flames acquired Bollig. Because he is measurably the best player on the Flames, by virtue of his recent Stanley Cup win.

MATH.

[Gaskal]

Stop trying to make up weird ass stats that make no sense.