Another blind and delusional optimist thread? 5 GAME UPDATE - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Loyal and True · 10-01-2013, 07:58 PM

Can't say I would bet a year's salary on being a .500 club this year, much less a playoff team.

Further, all can agree that long term building is more important than an unexpected visit to the post-season as if struck by lightning.

Nevertheless... crazy things happen. And when they do, the pundits make revisions in an attempt to make sense of the unbelievable events they have observed.

So let me submit the following "truths", if you will:

1. This is still a salary cap/floor era, with a significant degree of competitive balance. This is not the young guns era where the underdog's entire team is paid less than the favorite's starting 5.

2. Randomness is a huge factor. shooting %, save %, PDO can be otherwise tagged "chemistry, confidence, consistency" etc when many times it is dumb luck. We've seen many teams come out of nowhere in the past 10 years and it will happen again. We've also seen many players have breakout seasons where nobody saw it coming. Ramo? Berra? Sven? Backlund? Monahan? Brodie? One or two of these could explode at any time.

3. Good coaching, systems and goaltending remain the equalizer against teams with more talent on paper. Tippet, Trotz, Craig Anderson... list goes on...

The Flames are not spending to the cap, for good reason, but perhaps our cap spending has much less "fat" compared to prior years. In the past there were many more bloated contracts where pay was based more on past performance. Even a player like Stajan at 3.5 cap hit and used to play 8 mins a game, and now is pretty effective on a line with Stempniak and Glencross. He is much better value for money today. An argument could be made that our cap spending is much better "pound-for-pound" than it has been for years.

Nobody's banking on the Flames, but some team is going to shock the pundits. If it were the Flames you can bet that some of these notions would be dug up to explain it. Kind of like the finance reporters who justify a 200 point rise in the markets on Monday and just as quickly explain the 200 point drop on Tuesday.

At the end of the day, it might be equivalent to winning 50/50 draw at a local event. Not likely, but you never know. Well, this season put me down for $20 on the long shot. I'm in. Go Flames.

dino7c · 10-01-2013, 08:02 PM

The odds of the Flames winning the stanley cup this year are far greater than winning a 50/50 draw...so I'm saying there's a chance!

Really though Pheonix went to the west final last full season with a team that on paper didn't look like anything special. This is supposed to be fun, don't let anyone else how to feel about the Flames

transplant99 · 10-01-2013, 08:06 PM

Nothing wrong with being just a "fan" and hoping things go well for your club.

It gets overwhelming sometimes reading a forum such as this with "rebuild this" "aav that", "3 zones here", "systems there", he sucks, they suck, too old, too young, corsi, save% and on and on and on....etc etc.

Sometimes, its good to just sit back and watch the game and have fun doing so. Its become a lost enjoyment for many i suspect with the advent of the internet and other reasons.

Vinny01 · 10-01-2013, 09:38 PM

I am optimistic to see a new identity and our young stars Baertschi and Monahan hopefully succeeding. If Ramo or Berra play like Bobrovski or Kipper 03-04 then anything is possible. The one nice thing this year is there is no pending doom hanging over the team if they fail. Worst case veterans are traded (hopefully happens anyway), and/or Hartley/Feaster are fired but I doubt that happens

Fusebox · 10-01-2013, 09:45 PM

The bookies don't make mistakes, and the Flames are projected to get around 73 points, which is a full five points lower than Florida's projected total. That is huge. Everyone else in the league is at least in the eighties. Anyone above dead last will be a major accomplishment in my opinion.

mikephoen · 10-01-2013, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fusebox

The bookies don't make mistakes, and the Flames are projected to get around 73 points, which is a full five points lower than Florida's projected total. That is huge. Everyone else in the league is at least in the eighties. Anyone above dead last will be a major accomplishment in my opinion.

1. Everyone makes mistakes, bookies included.

2. Bookies aren't trying to predict results, they're trying to set a line that creates action.

Major Major · 10-01-2013, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fusebox

The bookies don't make mistakes, and the Flames are projected to get around 73 points, which is a full five points lower than Florida's projected total. That is huge. Everyone else in the league is at least in the eighties. Anyone above dead last will be a major accomplishment in my opinion.

When you say that the bookies don't make mistakes, are you claiming that bookies hold infallible clairvoyance? Or are you saying that while bookies don't always predict things perfectly, it is rare that teams exceed or fall short of vegas predictions by a significant amount? Either way, you are wrong.

Erick Estrada · 10-01-2013, 10:02 PM

Anything is possible. There's not a lot of margin for error when you are deficient in talent but if the players commit to a team game, the goaltending is very good, and some players have break out seasons there's no reason this team at least can't be in the thick of things.

Goodlad · 10-01-2013, 10:20 PM

Bugger off with your negative juju thread

mikeecho · 10-01-2013, 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fusebox

The bookies don't make mistakes, and the Flames are projected to get around 73 points, which is a full five points lower than Florida's projected total. That is huge. Everyone else in the league is at least in the eighties. Anyone above dead last will be a major accomplishment in my opinion.

Bookies were pretty bullish on the Oilers chances of winning the cup last year!

Dion · 10-01-2013, 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fusebox

The bookies don't make mistakes, and the Flames are projected to get around 73 points, which is a full five points lower than Florida's projected total. That is huge. Everyone else in the league is at least in the eighties. Anyone above dead last will be a major accomplishment in my opinion.

We have enough quality veterans on this team to get points higher than the projections. If they lead by example and set a good standard for the prospects to follow anything is possible. Add to the fact the country club atmosphere of years past is gone.

Fusebox · 10-01-2013, 10:42 PM

Bookies don't hang a line of under 73.5 -140 total points on teams that have a shot at making the playoffs. An aging Canucks team is still priced at over 95.5 -135.

This would be like a fourteen or fifteen point underdog winning a game outright in the NFL. Does it happen? Yes. Often? Of course not. Maybe once in twenty. Those are about our odds to make the playoffs. One in twenty. 5%.

Fusebox · 10-01-2013, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dion

We have enough quality veterans on this team to get points higher than the projections. If they lead by example and set a good standard for the prospects to follow anything is possible. Add to the fact the country club atmosphere of years past is gone.

I hope you're right. The problem is that we need all of these veterans to have career years in the same year to have any chance of even coming close to making the playoffs.

Dion · 10-01-2013, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fusebox

I hope you're right. The problem is that we need all of these veterans to have career years in the same year to have any chance of even coming close to making the playoffs.

I'd be quite happy just finishing ahead of the Oilers in the standings.

djsFlames · 10-02-2013, 01:17 AM

I'd rather the Oilers NOT get a better 1st round pick/position than us this year. So the only way I'd like to see us finish ahead of the Oilers is if we're the ones going to the post-season. If not, I'm perfectly fine with us finishing something like 13th and the Oil finishing 10th.

I think that all it takes is some team chemistry, a team system that works, and/or a goalie that gets hot and backstops a team for a stretch of time like Smith did for the Yotes for a whole month..which basically put them cleanly into the playoff ranks.

Nothing is impossible. And I think the subtraction of a 36 year old Iginla / under performing Jbo, and addition of young, fresh talent will, in fact, not make us any less of a bubble team than what we were before. And we came awfully close with the exception of this past debacle of a season. We'll probably not make it anyways, but we'll be in that hunt for a most of the season. I'd put my money on that much.

Wouldn't be surprised to see them go on a run out of the gates either. A lot of weird things happen early in a season.

H2SO4(aq) · 10-02-2013, 01:37 AM

bet a 15 pack of labatt blue that calgary would finish higher than the oilers. and i REALLY want that 15 pack. go flames go.

Wastedyouth · 10-02-2013, 01:49 AM

Unless Ramo has a worse season than Kipper last year (which is nigh impossible, Kipper had one of the worst even strength SV% for a goalie last season in the modern era), the Flames will be no where near the worst team in the league. Bottom 10 finish, maybe, but don't expect 1st overall.

Vulcan · 10-02-2013, 04:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fusebox

The bookies don't make mistakes, and the Flames are projected to get around 73 points, which is a full five points lower than Florida's projected total. That is huge. Everyone else in the league is at least in the eighties. Anyone above dead last will be a major accomplishment in my opinion.

As if some bookie is going to tell me if I can enjoy a game and cheer for my team because he says it's foreordained.

carom · 10-02-2013, 04:49 AM

There is some serious potential for Ewing theory karma with the flames this year. I'm not putting money on it, but it will be interesting to see how the year plays out without the superstars of the past.

zukes · 10-02-2013, 06:20 AM

This is the first year I can ever remember going into a season and not having any expectations. I am usually an optimist bordering on dillusional. I think it will be interesting to see how my emotions change watching games.

Will it be like how I watch the Blue Jays? Where I didn't watch a game after July? - Probably not, that happens out of frustration of crushed expectations.

Will it be appointment watching where I won't allow myself to life a normal life and plan all social events around the Flames schedule like usual? - Probably not, DVR'ing games will likely occur more often.

Will I be upset after a loss? - Probably not, as long as the effort is there and there is light at the end of the tunnel.