Federal politicians (CPC, NDP, and Liberal) are keeping their heads down in Quebec.

[Rerun]

Quebec's provincial election is in 4 days (Sept 4).

Polls (for whatever they are worth) show that the PQ has a good chance of winning.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/quebec...l-parties.html

Recent opinion polls suggest the Liberals under Jean Charest are in deep trouble with voters, especially francophone Quebecers.

The Parti Québécois, out of power since 2003, is solidly back in the picture under Pauline Marois, with a platform that repeats the party's traditional demands for more powers from Ottawa and a promise to hold another referendum on separation as soon as winning conditions exist.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has told his cabinet and caucus to stay out of the campaign. That hands-off decree is in stark contrast, for example, to the Alberta provincial election last spring, when a number of federal cabinet ministers openly endorsed the fledgling Wild Rose Party.
Part of the reason is that his party, with just five seats in Quebec, has little organization in the province. And many Conservative policies, such as gun registration and climate change, already run counter to public sentiment. In other words, no sense acting as a lightning rod at the first sound of thunder.

The New Democrats hold most of the federal seats in Quebec. More than half the NDP caucus comes from the province, many of them elected just a year ago with the support of soft nationalists and former Bloc Québécois voters.
That's a key reason NDP Leader Tom Mulcair is in no mood to be the federalist voice in this campaign. He's told his Quebec caucus their only role is to vote — while at the same time urging people to look at the shiny object in the window, his promise to have a Quebec wing of his party in place for the next provincial election.

Even the Liberals are keeping a low profile.
Denis Coderre, MP for the Montreal riding of Bourassa, has been helping some local Liberal candidates in provincial ridings that overlap with his own. But that's it.
He says too many voters remain undecided, making the outcome far from certain, and the mood far too volatile for outside interference to do anything but benefit the Parti Québécois.

[zamler]

The Parti Québécois, out of power since 2003, is solidly back in the picture under Pauline Marois, with a platform that repeats the party's traditional demands for more powers from Ottawa and a promise to hold another referendum on separation as soon as winning conditions exist.

...and here we go again. So tired of this crap I really am.

[Rerun]

Its a never ending gong show....

The pro-sovereignty leader is considered the front-runner for Tuesday's provincial election, despite a poll Friday in Montreal's La Presse newspaper that has the PQ and its rivals the Liberal Party and the Coalition Avenir Québec party within overlapping margins of error.

Nevertheless, Marois is laying out her plans for governance, saying she would take a few days to prepare a cabinet.

Then she says she would contact Prime Minister Stephen Harper about transferring powers to Quebec — in areas like Employment Insurance, language and communications.

"In the days that follow, in the weeks that follow, it will be a short delay, I will contact Mr. Harper," Marois told reporters while campaigning in Gatineau, across the river from Ottawa.

Marois brushed off a question about whether she would adopt a belligerent tone with Harper: "No, not at all. I will employ an attitude of respect."
The party has said it wants Quebec to have control over multiple things usually in the federal domain, from copyright law to international aid funds. If Ottawa refuses, it says, that will bolster the case that Quebec and the rest of Canada must go their separate ways.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/quebec...r-victory.html

[Jacks]

The PQ could easily fall short of a majority. Due to the vote distribution the Liberals will likely get the second most seats even if they are third in voting percentage. If the PQ can't get the confidence of the house then the Liberals would be called on to try and form government.

Given Quebec's support of all the "coalition" BS we had federally I would have to chuckle if they end up with Charest staying on as premier and leading a coalition (with CAQ support) government with 25%-30% support. That is the only scenario I can see where Charest doesn't resign. That assumes of course that Charest wins his own seat.

Imagine if the Liberals formed a coalition with the CAQ and then had to have Charest run in a by-election to get in the house?

[zamler]

Then she says she would contact Prime Minister Stephen Harper about transferring powers to Quebec — in areas like Employment Insurance, language and communications.

If I was the PM I would agree to these terms, and of course make it clear that Ottawa would no longer fund said programs, seeing the federal government is no longer involved.

[OffsideSpecialist]

Even if she wins, which would be a disaster as she has the most bigoted platform I can recall hearing about in a long time, I imagine that the Liberals and CAQ will hold the balance of power in the legislature. I can't see the PQ winning a majority considering how close those three parties are, and I don't see le Quebec Solidaire coming close to giving the PQ the support that they would require, and I don't see the PLQ and CAQ supporting the PQ objectives.

[OffsideSpecialist]

The National Post throw their support behind the CAQ:

The newly formed Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), led by 55-year-old businessman François Legault, is a federalist party whose platform emphasizes nuts-and-bolts policy issues such as cleaning up sleaze in Quebec’s National Assembly, reforming the education and health systems, taking on the province’s bloated and powerful unions and generally turning Quebec from a have-not province into a have province. The CAQ promises to limit political donations to $100, get the government out of the business of micromanaging schools, and extend the hours of the province’s health clinics.

From our perspective, the CAQ is hardly perfect. Mr. Legault was a sovereigntist in the past, and originally was somewhat vague about the CAQ’s stance on future referenda. Moreover, he seems to embrace much of the same claptrap about the allegedly endangered state of the French language in Quebec, promising to strengthen the Office de la Langue Française and its army of language snitches. It is also true that the CAQ is a young party, untested by time or power. And as with all such new political start-ups (such as Wildrose in Alberta, or the newly ascendant Quebec wing of the federal NDP), it surely has attracted its share of unvetted oddballs.

Nevertheless, in a province that clearly is ready to move on from Mr. Charest, Mr. Legault provides a fresh face. And from a strictly strategic point of view, he provides federalist voters with the best option for keeping Ms. Marois out of the premier’s office: The latest polls suggest the CAQ running well ahead of the Liberals.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/...e-best-option/

Legault has apparently talked about wanting to reduce the load that Quebec puts on other provinces. For that reason, and the fact that he is a much better option than Marois in general, I would kind of like for the CAQ to take this election.

[Devils'Advocate]

It's not this election that is important... it's the NEXT one.

The people of Quebec are sick of Jean Charest and want to kick him out. Currently the main alternative is the PQ, who you must admit have proven to be able to get the most for the people of Quebec. There is the CAQ, but it looks like they will end up in 3rd place.

But next election the NDP plan on running candidates provincially. Will they be able to take down the PQ provincially the way they did federally? I certainly hope so. And before people go squawking about how the NDP would be a financial disaster far worse than the horrible governments Quebec has seen in the past, there have been plenty of examples of well-run NDP governments at the provincial level.

I am hoping that this election here will be a minority government because we all know they don't last very long. Like I said, the next election should be more interesting than this one. This one is just about getting Jean Charest out of the premier's seat.

[octothorp]

Just to update, it's election night, and it'll be a PQ government; right now they're looking at around 58 seats, about five short of a majority. Their overall support is lower than most of the polls were leaning, below 33%. Still going to be a solid government, but they won't be able to raise the sovereignty question with a low popular vote and no majority.

edit: Liberals are significantly beating the projections for them, probably finishing around 45 seats. But still a big blow for them from the last assembly standing. Interesting to see what happens for Charest.

[OffsideSpecialist]

Of note, Charest is currently losing his riding of Sherbrooke. The PQ seem to be very favoured in rural ridings. Apparently the PQ, CAQ and PLQ are all very close in terms of popular vote, and it looks like the PLQ sweeped Gatineau and is winning handily in Montreal and CAQ is doing very well in Quebec. Actually it looks like the PLQ annihilated the competition in West Montreal. Must be the number of anglophones.

[octothorp]

Interesting, you look at the map for southern quebec and Sherbrooke is a little island of PQ in a region that is otherwise pretty solidly PLQ. That would be a pretty strong rebuff for him.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Just to update, it's election night, and it'll be a PQ government; right now they're looking at around 58 seats, about five short of a majority.

If Charest wins his seat then I give the PQ a 50/50 chance of forming government. If Charest loses his seat I think that rises to about 80%. Either way there will be another election in less than 2 years.

[OffsideSpecialist]

The PQ are notorious for infighting and are being led by a lunatic, so I have to agree and don't think this government will last for too long.

[transplant99]

Another seperatist government in Quebec.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Good times.

[OffsideSpecialist]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Another seperatist government in Quebec.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Good times.

Really though, the PLQ and CAQ will hold the balance of power. I wouldn't be concerned about it.

[Fire]

I'm hoping the PQ wins because it would be a huge fustercluck and provide me with entertainment for the next 4 years. Marois can barely speak English and she's a huge bigot. She will manufacture a crisis or two (or three) with the Federal Government that will hopefully lead to their separation from Canada.

[GirlySports]

This is an election everyone lost. Nobody is happy.

PQ will form the government with 31% of the popular vote.

Seperatism was barely an issue in this election, not even in the top 5 of issues.

[SebC]

I really hate the trend here of recycling old threads... "Federal politicians keeping their heads down in Quebec" shouldn't really be the Quebec election thread.

[Jacks]

Looks like Charest is going to lose his seat, that makes it unlikely that the Libs and CAQ will block the PQ right away. No tears for Charest, couldn't happen ti a nicer jerk.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

This is an election everyone lost. Nobody is happy.

PQ will form the government with 31% of the popular vote.

Seperatism was barely an issue in this election, not even in the top 5 of issues.

I would bet that within 6 months its front and center.