The Spectrum Crunch.

[HotHotHeat]

Just stumbled across this. Generally speaking, my conspiracy theory days are over, but this one has me legitimately concerned.

Apparently there is a mathematical (as in not technological) limitation on the number of wireless data transfers that can happen on planet Earth, due to the wavelength required to transmit such a signal and the radiation from the sun.

I'll stop trying to explain this and just direct you here:

http://extra-credits.net/episodes/spectrum-crunch/

If nothing else, this helps me better understand why unlimited data plans on smartphones are seemingly disappearing. The stat about AT&T's traffic going up 20,000% since 2007 is plain stupid.

I'm also going to put this article here for anyone interested. Discusses the reasons for lacking innovation in the smartphone industry.

http://www.theverge.com/2012/7/5/313...tion-editorial

[Notorious Honey Badger]

fascinating. yet horrible.

[sclitheroe]

I had to stop watching when they confused spectrum with bandwidth and began using the terms interchangably. Seriously, if they can't get those terms straight, they don't know what they are talking about.

Here's a hint: bandwidth, as an expression of data rate, has absolutely no direct correlation to spectrum.

[Rathji]

If they provided anything other than what boils down to random hand waving to explain why this would happen, I might actually be able to form an opinion of what he is talking about.

Since they don't I will dismiss this and worry about it when it happen - like never.

edit:

Exhibit 1: 2.5 Tb/s wireless from http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=118516

[HotHotHeat]

Here's one more article. Seems to be something that's accepted as a problem going forward, as opposed to something that doesn't exist because they don't know what they're talking about.

The FCC has also been working to free up more spectrum for wireless operators. Congress reached a tentative deal last week, approving voluntary auctions that would let TV broadcasters' spectrum licenses be repurposed for wireless broadband use.
But freeing up more spectrum won't be enough to solve the problem.
"There is no one solution that will address all the needs of the wireless industry," says Dan Hays, a partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers who specializes in telecom issues.
The good news is that there are ways to buy time. Several innovative approaches are in the works, and there's a decent amount of spectrum out there that could be turned over to the carriers' possession.
The bad news is that none of the fixes are quick, and all are expensive. For the situation to improve, carriers -- and, therefore, their customers -- will have to pay more.
"For a while we won't notice the quality of service changes, but over time as devices get better and use more data, we'll start to take notice," Altman says. "Consumers will notice it, and the burden will fall on the carriers to fix it."

http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/21/tech...unch/index.htm

More than anything, it means we'll continue paying more and more for smartphones.

[Rathji]

Paying more, I can see.

Running out, never.

[BloodFetish]

These articles concentrate on the States, though. Does this even apply to Canada, where I'd guess we have less competition for spectrum?

[sclitheroe]

Originally Posted by HotHotHeat

Here's one more article. Seems to be something that's accepted as a problem going forward, as opposed to something that doesn't exist because they don't know what they're talking about.

The problem is mostly inefficient allocation of spectrum and under-utilization by those that obtain spectrum. It's estimated that about 5% of all useful commercially licensed spectrum is in use.

Furthermore, all of this talk of spectrum is ignoring the fact that improved signal processing gets you more mileage out of existing spectrum. LTE, for example, is vastly more spectrum efficient than HSPA out of the box.

Down the road past LTE, with greater and greater on-device signal processing capability, we can drive spectrum density higher, as well as operate in spectral areas that are less than ideal compared to the spectrum cell carriers are currently using, because we can apply more sophisticated modulation and error correcting algorithms against the signal.

In total, U.S. operators have licenses for about 538MHz of wireless spectrum. Only about 192MHz of that spectrum is currently being used. And of the spectrum that is being used, 90 percent of it has been allocated to existing 2G, 3G, and 3.5G wireless services by larger wireless carriers, such as AT&T, Verizon Wireless, Sprint Nextel, and T-Mobile USA.

The move to 4G is very important for these operators because it offers them a much more efficient way to deliver service. According to the Citigroup report, 4G LTE uses the available spectrum roughly 700 percent more efficiently than the 3G wireless technology EV-DO.

Source: http://news.cnet.com/8301-30686_3-20...trum-shortage/

I'm not an expert on RF and signal processing by any stretch, but when we look at every single physical/electrical/signalling constraint in IT, it's always overcome with more processing power allowing us to squeeze more data out of existing contraints (eg. CAT5 ethernet went from 10 megabits to 1 gigabit, hard drives continue to increase in density despite having to deal with quantum physics level effects, we're pushing hundreds of megabits throughput on regular coax (DOCSIS3), etc). There's no reason to think it won't apply here too.

The biggest issue being faced is economics and logistics - it's really really expensive to continually build out, grow density, and refresh existing tower networks. It's also expensive to transition millions of subscribers to newer technology as well. And both take a long time to make happen.

I'm willing to wager that the simple economics and logistics will stifle growth in the mobile space long, long before spectral capacity will.

[calumniate]

Remember when Calgary ran out of bandwidth for radio stations? That really sucked! However, life goes on

[HotHotHeat]

Efficiency is a good point, and if LTE can take advantage of a wider spectrum, that shows the real reason companies are investing in the technology (it's happening faster than I thought it would). Thanks for the post sclitheroe, it clears things up well.

[PegCityFlamesFan]

Remember when you had to pay for how many hours you had on dial up?