Election: Consequences for Leaders? (PGT PC Majority)

[bizaro86]

How will this outcome affect the party leaders?

Alison Redford should be safe, based on a convincing win. But I suppose people said that about Stelmach last time around. Assuming no huge scandals, she should be good for 4 more years. (If anything does go south, PCs will be quick with the knives)

Danielle Smith is the wildcard. Her speech said "change might take a bit longer." Is this a big enough win for her to keep the leadership of the WRP? 4 years of official opposition is quite something, will they give her another chance?

Raj Sherman didn't get much notice that campaign, and lost official party status. Will someone else (Kent Hehr?) take on that mantle?

Brian Mason seems like the biggest winner of the leaders here, he accomplished everything he could have reasonably hoped.

Glen Taylor of the Alberta Party didn't win his own seat. Is the Alberta Party going to stick around for next time? If so, will he be there to lead it?

I'd appreciate your thoughts on the effects this campaign will have on the parties going forward.

[Daradon]

WRP is still very young. Though they did worse than the recent polls suggested they would they still did very well and have an important role to fill now. They obviously have a bright future ahead and could win in the future. There is no reason to think her party will be mad at her or looking for a new leader.

And even if they were, it would be political suicide for such a young party to get rid of their leader and appear to be reactionary and disorganized.

Have no idea about the other three leaders.

[getbak]

Redford is safe, I'd say.

I think the Wild Rose has to stay with Smith and let her be the face of the party. She needs to be strong as the leader of the opposition if they want to take over next time. Those who are elected, need to be professional and not wing-nuts, and they need to get rid of the wing-nuts who didn't get elected.

I could see the NDP and Liberals talk about a merger to become a legitimate voice on the left (with a new name that can sell in this province outside of downtown Calgary and downtown Edmonton).

[puffnstuff]

Why do they 'obviously have a bright future'?

They didnt really win any seats in the urban centres (2? or 3?). The appeal they have right now is to the rural populace. They retain those voters by staying the same...they appeal to the city voters my moving left towards the centre...are they willing to do that? There is already a party filling that role.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by getbak

Redford is safe, I'd say.

I think the Wild Rose has to stay with Smith and let her be the face of the party. She needs to be strong as the leader of the opposition if they want to take over next time. Those who are elected, need to be professional and not wing-nuts, and they need to get rid of the wing-nuts who didn't get elected.

I could see the NDP and Liberals talk about a merger to become a legitimate voice on the left (with a new name that can sell in this province outside of downtown Calgary and downtown Edmonton).

Is that the Alberta Party? More people would vote left without the brand baggage, imo. It kind of feels like the Canadian Alliance/PC days federally. Some members of both Reform and PC decided to merge, and the rest came along eventually. Not my personal preference, but I could see that happening and giving them a legit shot from the left.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Is that the Alberta Party? More people would vote left without the brand baggage, imo. It kind of feels like the Canadian Alliance/PC days federally. Some members of both Reform and PC decided to merge, and the rest came along eventually. Not my personal preference, but I could see that happening and giving them a legit shot from the left.

I think if the Liberal, NDP and Alberta party merged under the Alberta party banner, they could do some good damage in upcoming elections.

Doubt it would happen though.

[CaptainCrunch]

Raj is done, he made no difference and the Liberal's have to think about a left merger.

Mason is ok

Redford is surprisingly safe, she got away with a lot in this campaign, and has her majority.

Smith is very safe, she's put the party into the Legislature its up to her to gain control of the unpredictable elements in her party. She needs to read Stephen Harper's book on party control which means she has to get better MLA's and moderate her parties message to fight the Booga Booga strategies of the Conservatives.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Raj is done, he made no difference and the Liberal's have to think about a left merger.

Mason is ok

Redford is surprisingly safe, she got away with a lot in this campaign, and has her majority.

Smith is very safe, she's put the party into the Legislature its up to her to gain control of the unpredictable elements in her party. She needs to read Stephen Harper's book on party control which means she has to get better MLA's and moderate her parties message to fight the Booga Booga strategies of the Conservatives.

Agree Smith probably gets one more chance to run the WRP in an election. Although realistically, if they don't improve in the next election, they'll end up a one time wonder like the ADQ was in Quebec. The only historic examples in AB have the province moving to the right, and a PC party that moves to the "progressive" side is vulnerable to the right. If not wildrose, the same people will try again later.

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

Why do they 'obviously have a bright future'?

They didnt really win any seats in the urban centres (2? or 3?). The appeal they have right now is to the rural populace. They retain those voters by staying the same...they appeal to the city voters my moving left towards the centre...are they willing to do that? There is already a party filling that role.

Well I guess I meant bright as a viable party in Alberta. Considering how young they are that's all you can say. You are right, people might be leaning away from the conservative parties. But I don't believe that will happen very quickly if at all.

As well, they might look at their platform in the months to come and keep that fiscal conservative part, but really work on the socially conservative part and put themselves in a light where they look progressive as well.

Smith is safe though. I doubt anyone wants to get rid of her and I think it would be disastrous to the party if they did.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Daradon

Well I guess I meant bright as a viable party in Alberta. Considering how young they are that's all you can say. You are right, people might be leaning away from the conservative parties. But I don't believe that will happen very quickly if at all.

As well, they might look at their platform in the months to come and keep that fiscal conservative part, but really work on the socially conservative part and put themselves in a light where they look progressive as well.

Smith is safe though. I doubt anyone wants to get rid of her and I think it would be disastrous to the party if they did.

Interesting to see how positive the coverage for the NDP has been. They have definitely established themselves on the left, and obviously wildrose has established themselves on the right.

[Resolute 14]

The biggest reason why Redford is safe is that Morton lost his own seat. That wipes a rival faction out entirely.

Smith will be safe, I'll bet. She is now the opposition leader and will get a chance to challenge Redford directly in the Legislature.

Mason is safe as the NDP seem content with being that nearly irrelevant little party that keeps getting four seats in Edmonton.

Sherman, whether he holds his seat or not, should be gone. Problem, is, that party is devoid of anyone who can stand toe to toe with the other three leaders. As such, if Sherman wins, he's probably safe simply due to lack of opposition.

Taylor is, and always was, irrelevant.

[TurnedTheCorner]

Blow it up.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The biggest reason why Redford is safe is that Morton lost his own seat. That wipes a rival faction out entirely.

Smith will be safe, I'll bet. She is now the opposition leader and will get a chance to challenge Redford directly in the Legislature.

Mason is safe as the NDP seem content with being that nearly irrelevant little party that keeps getting four seats in Edmonton.

Sherman, whether he holds his seat or not, should be gone. Problem, is, that party is devoid of anyone who can stand toe to toe with the other three leaders. As such, if Sherman wins, he's probably safe simply due to lack of opposition.

Taylor is, and always was, irrelevant.

What about Kent Hehr? Aside from the unfortunate pun insofar as he can't "stand toe to toe" simply because he can't stand, he seems like a possibility. Sherman and Swann have both had a crack at it...

[Resolute 14]

I have no problem with Hehr, but really, he's being touted mostly because there isn't anyone else left. The Liberals are done, and the sooner they figure it out, the better off the left will be.

[Makarov]

For the record, Raj came back to win his seat and the Liberals maintained official party status.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Makarov

For the record, Raj came back to win his seat and the Liberals maintained official party status.

What exactly does that mean? CBC promised they'd explain it but never did. Extra money? Better offices? Extra questions in question period? If it's money, how much are we talking?

[GP_Matt]

I believe they get leaders funding which is something like $170,000. That is supposed to pay them to have an office and hire an employee and conduct research.
They also get time in the legislature to ask questions.

I am not sure, but they might also be allowed to occasionally bring up a private members bill.

[Bunk]

The centre-left needs to do some serious soul searching following this result. The Liberals would be best to merge with the small but energetic Alberta Party under their banner (new brand without the baggage). Leave the NDP to their own on the left flank to distinguish this new entity as the centrist, pragmatic alternative the PCs. That's where Albertans are politically and they will continue to seek out competent alternatives to the potentially supplant PCs. The new merged Alberta Party can then set themselves up (under new leadership) as the government in waiting, a role the Wildrose proved to be too conservative at its core to fulfil for most voters.

I think Wildrose had one shot at it, and failed, which opens the door up to something new.

[sworkhard]

I know that the first party that demonstrates fiscal prudence and restraint and supports social liberty/freedoms will be who I vote for in the future. The Wildrose didn't successful demonstrate they were capable of either.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The biggest reason why Redford is safe is that Morton lost his own seat. That wipes a rival faction out entirely.

Smith will be safe, I'll bet. She is now the opposition leader and will get a chance to challenge Redford directly in the Legislature.

Mason is safe as the NDP seem content with being that nearly irrelevant little party that keeps getting four seats in Edmonton.

Sherman, whether he holds his seat or not, should be gone. Problem, is, that party is devoid of anyone who can stand toe to toe with the other three leaders. As such, if Sherman wins, he's probably safe simply due to lack of opposition.

Taylor is, and always was, irrelevant.

You're hilarious. Why would Sherman be done? He had less than a year to prepare for this on an very limited budget and still managed five seats in the face of his vote completely moving to the PCs. The worst performer when you look at it was Smith; two years plus to prepare and crisscross the province, a couple million bucks in the bank and a pathetic showing last night.

Sherman easily earned himself a term to see what he brings to the table. Lets see if Smith (a) wants to toil in opposition or (b) lasts longer than her last stint in public office.