Experts say our love affair with the automobile is ending, and that could change much more than how we get around – it presents both an opportunity and an imperative to rethink how we build cities, howgovernments budget and even the contours of the political landscape.
The most detailed picture of the trend comes from the United States, where the distance driven by Americans per capita each year flatlined at the turn of the century and has been dropping for six years. By last spring, Americans were driving the same distance as they had in 1998. The data are similar in Europe, Australia and Japan. And, although Canada doesn't keep national statistics on individual driving habits, Australian researcher Jeff Kenworthy has found that driving in the nation's five largest cities, combined, declined by 1.7 per cent per capita from 1995 to 2006.
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If developed countries are reaching “peak car,” as some transportation experts are calling it, it's not just a product of high unemployment or skyrocketing fuel prices, as the pattern began to show up years before the 2008 financial crisis.
Nor is it primarily a matter of people feeling guilted into reducing their car use for the sake of the climate and the environment – the threat of separating people from their wheels (or taxing their fuel use) has long been one of the green movement's biggest stumbling blocks.
Indeed, the shift is so gradual and widespread that it's clearly not a product of any “war on the car” or other ideological campaign. Rather, it's a byproduct of a stage of development that cities were probably destined to reach ever since the dawn of the automobile age: Finding themselves caught in an uncomfortable tangle of urban sprawl, population growth and plain individual inconvenience, people, one by one, are just quietly opting out.
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the point at which people run up against what's called the Marchetti Wall – the psychological barrier against spending more than about an hour getting to work or coming home.
The concept is named for a Venetian physicist named Cesare Marchetti, who posited not only that human beings instinctively adjust their lives to avoid travelling more than that amount every day, but that we've been doing so since the Neolithic era, even as modes and speeds of transportation have advanced.
I know I've cut my driving by about 90% over the last couple of years. Most of that has to do with working from home and living in the Beltline however.
I wonder if vacation habits changed somewhat during that time: Baby boomers doing less touring/ camping and opting for sea cruises and destination flights. The growing option of working from home could be part of it. At least in the States unemployment and underemployment have probably curbed driving habits in the last few years.
I know I've cut my driving by about 90% over the last couple of years. Most of that has to do with working from home and living in the Beltline however.
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I think that the study is showing how deep the average persons pocket has been over the past few years.
When everything is finally back on track (however long it may be) I assume driving will go back up.
Driving is not cheap and the average person is probobly making less money than they were 8 years ago. Insurance, repairs, gas etc all can add up.
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City design also probably has something to do with it.
Calgary is a place where most people need a vehicle - you can't make a shopping to trip to Costco out in the boonies without a car.
Tokyo, by comparison, does not have a driving culture: you can get everywhere with public transit, nor are the roads in Tokyo very large - and I have never seen an absolute congestion in any part of the city even after spending months there and in Japan in general.
If Calgary and Edmonton ever get that bullet train, I imagine we'll see a spike downwards in long-distance driving again.
City design also probably has something to do with it.
Calgary is a place where most people need a vehicle - you can't make a shopping to trip to Costco out in the boonies without a car.
Tokyo, by comparison, does not have a driving culture: you can get everywhere with public transit, nor are the roads in Tokyo very large - and I have never seen an absolute congestion in any part of the city even after spending months there and in Japan in general.
If Calgary and Edmonton ever get that bullet train, I imagine we'll see a spike downwards in long-distance driving again.
Why can't you live in a Calgary and not shop at Costco out in the boonies. It's not a requirement. It's a choice.
we sold our second car 5 years ago as it was gathering dust. I bike to work. Got rid of the extra expenses of insurance, gas and repair and never looked back. We still drive (we did a driving vacation to San Diego this year). Never really looked at overall mileage, but I'd bet it's down.
I think that the study is showing how deep the average persons pocket has been over the past few years.
When everything is finally back on track (however long it may be) I assume driving will go back up.
Driving is not cheap and the average person is probobly making less money than they were 8 years ago. Insurance, repairs, gas etc all can add up.
That's part of it for sure, but I think, as a few have said, has to do with how we live with and the design of the cities. If you look at population densities back in the 50's when cities were smaller and more people lived outside of cities, there was more need for cars. Now, there is slightly less need. Also, people want to get back to living closer to work, and often that means living in the heart of a big city, where cars are less useful. Money and gas prices definitely does have a part for a current flatline I think, but I doubt things will rebound noticibly when things get 'back on track' as you put it.
I don't think things are going to change immensely though, cars and independent drivers (as opposed to cars built for automatic road/tracks many futurists talk about) will exist for a long time. Our whole society is built around them. Our overall usage may flatline or even decrease slightly, but there will still be many cars, and needs for them.
Personally, my love affair of the car has never been higher....but I can definitely see its decline in importance.
Part of the reason is that safety regulations, economics, and technology have taken the thrill out of driving. Cars these days are heavy and overly-complicated... driver involvement is slowly being taken out of the process, and lot of people care more about the entertainment features of a car than it's driving characteristics.
The cars that sell are silver and conservative. Therefore manufactures make more conservative silver cars.....and people's expectations are lowered even more. Hardly anyone drives a manual, everyone wants to sit on a throne in the sky, and most people only care about how a car "rides" not how it "drives".
For most people, car's are now just extensions of their living rooms.....the last thing they want to do is drive. Which is kind of sad, because there are a lot of great cars out there, but the numbers dictate that those of us who DO like to drive get squeezed out in terms of options.
I don't really see the car having the same popularity as before (the personal electronic gadget, not a car, has become the thing to lord over your neighbors)... but if we took out a lot of the extra crap in them and made driving the primary, if not only, focus again, it would rekindle the love for some people.
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Personally, my love affair of the car has never been higher....but I can definitely see its decline in importance.
Part of the reason is that safety regulations, economics, and technology have taken the thrill out of driving. Cars these days are heavy and overly-complicated... driver involvement is slowly being taken out of the process, and lot of people care more about the entertainment features of a car than it's driving characteristics.
The cars that sell are silver and conservative. Therefore manufactures make more conservative silver cars.....and people's expectations are lowered even more. Hardly anyone drives a manual, everyone wants to sit on a throne in the sky, and most people only care about how a car "rides" not how it "drives".
This is why I drive a BMW. I can get a smile on my face on almost any road, be it straight or twisty. It's full of technology, but none of it gets in the way of the enjoyment of the drive.
I think that the study is showing how deep the average persons pocket has been over the past few years.
When everything is finally back on track (however long it may be) I assume driving will go back up.
Driving is not cheap and the average person is probobly making less money than they were 8 years ago. Insurance, repairs, gas etc all can add up.
The article also states that there is no correlation to income as this trend was being observed prior to 2008 - an affluent period.
I suspect among all the reasons the most common may have to do with increased "efficiency". The criteria defining efficiency is somewhat expansive in this context, but in a simple sense, conveys any method to reduce commute time.
This may include:
Choosing to live closer to work;
Development of public transit systems;
Higher density living, mitigating urban sprawl;
Choosing alternative modes of transportation;
So on...
People are simply becoming smarter about methods to reduce commute time, since commute time is generally not compensated for, and furthermore, often confers a significant cost. Additionally, beyond the monetary costs, is the undesirable aspect of lost time - a real loss of value. People are responding to this slowly and adapting so as to reduce their reliance on a relatively cumbersome mode of transportation.
And I think it is important to note that cars and the like are a nascent form of transportation. Did they not become mainstream in the 70's? It has only been 100 years for the market to expand from niche/luxury to mass. That's remarkably short for such a large market.
Have we always been able to "title" posts? I never noticed this before.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Table 5
I don't really see the car having the same popularity as before (the personal electronic gadget, not a car, has become the thing to lord over your neighbors)...
So lame, but true.
The same attitude that makes people (foolishly) buy a new phone every year is probably going to keep the car companies in business though. People will inevitably (I think) drive less, but they still won't want to do it in a five year old car, even if it only has 40K on it. Possibly because it won't synch with the new phone.
This is why I drive a BMW. I can get a smile on my face on almost any road, be it straight or twisty. It's full of technology, but none of it gets in the way of the enjoyment of the drive.
Not counting car clubs and such, most of the people (Probably about 90-05%) I know only view cars as something that gets them from point A to point B.
I don't know many people that enjoy taking their car out to just drive. And I also don't know many people who don't mind getting dirty and work on their own cars, no matter how minor it may be.
Gear heads (or as the Brit would say, Petrol heads) are becoming a rarity.
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I think that it's close to impossible to live in this city without a car, unless everyone you know lives very close to you. I think more people should focus on living close to their work, which would eliminate the amount they use their car, but wouldn't stop them from doing so altogether.
From my experiences living inner city, the ability to walk to work frees up at least an hour of my time a day. Personally, I would ditch my car and walk everywhere, except there's 2 things holding me back:
1. All of my friends and family do not live in the inner city, therefore to see them via transit would take much, much longer.
2. I fataing hate walking anywhere when it's -10 or below.
How do you make it to mens league using public transport. I don't want to leave a 10:30 game at 12:15am on a tuesday night and stand outside wet with my hockey bag waiting for a bus
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Have we reached "Peak Car?"
