The glow is off the boom. Time to move.

[Fuzzy McGillicuddy]

Toronto Star feature ...
http://www.thestar.com/Special/article/219527

Careful what you wish for. The intense rate of growth is unsustainable. We simply can't keep up with the pace. But how much does this thing slow down? And then what?

The cost of living is already getting to some folks. Time to sell the shack, collect the equity, move to Saskatchewan and watch the grass grow.

[Winsor_Pilates]

It will slow, but still grow IMO. Calgary can expect to be priced near Vancouver and then it will stop.

[Slava]

All of the companies are still showing excellent earnings, which means that they are still here to stay. I don't think that things are going to drop like a rock.

[SeeGeeWhy]

Things seem to be catching up to where they would have been had the NEP and oil crash in the 80s didn't happen.

The amount of work that remains to be done would suggest to me that we get to a point where the rate of growth would be considered healthy/sustainable until the next thing comes along to turn it either way (which is entirely un-predictable).

People are still moving here at a pace of 35,000/year. There's 6000+ listings on MLS for calgary right now and the market is considered 'balanced', tredning towards buyers market - despite the fact that interest rates are rising.

There's billions of barrells of oil in the oilsands and numerous numbers of projects still waiting for approval. Natural gas prices have recovered and demand is going nowhere for that product, either.

Corporate tax rates are the lowest in the country and dropping in the next two years, which will only attract more investment.

Yes, I agree that the recent growth rate is not sustainable, but that does not mean our prosperity in general is not sustainable.

[firebug]

Originally Posted by fotze

I've heard even Saskatchewan is getting expensive, of course not the same though.

People are all worried about paying $500k for a home that was $250 3 years ago in Calgary, but are now dropping $250K for a home that was $110k 2 years ago in Regina.

When/if the bust comes, do you want to be stuck in a home you paid too much for in Regina, or stuck in Calgary?

Best regards,

Bug

[Canada 02]

Seems to me Cowtown is still going strong

http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/...80a016&k=66532

Calgary has once again emerged as the metropolitan area in Canada with the most economic momentum, according to a report by CIBC World Markets....

Calgary was the top area in terms of population growth and the proportion of jobs that are full-time, and it had the lowest level of consumer bankruptcy.

Also, despite their size, Canada's 3 largest cities continue to do well - no reason to think that Calgary can't follow that lead.

Rounding out the top five spots were Canada's three largest cities, Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto, in that order in terms of economic momentum.

[Burninator]

Sounds like the centre of the universe - err...I mean Toronto is getting a little jealous.

[Bobblehead]

Originally Posted by Burninator

Sounds like the centre of the universe - err...I mean Toronto is getting a little jealous.

How do you figure? Toronto was mentioned once in that article.

[ken0042]

Originally Posted by Bobblehead

How do you figure?

I think it has more to do with it being a Toronto publication that wrote the article.

[Burninator]

Originally Posted by ken0042

I think it has more to do with it being a Toronto publication that wrote the article.

Exactly. I wasn't really serious. It was tongue in cheek.

[Bench Warmer]

Originally Posted by firebug

People are all worried about paying $500k for a home that was $250 3 years ago in Calgary, but are now dropping $250K for a home that was $110k 2 years ago in Regina.

When/if the bust comes, do you want to be stuck in a home you paid too much for in Regina, or stuck in Calgary?

Best regards,

Bug

Not really true at all...

Many folks are moving into big homes that are brand spanking new in Regina / Saskatoon for $350K - and doing it mortgage free based on the profit they got from their home in Calgary. The Regina / Saskatoon markets are really starting to boom now (well, last year maybe but this spring has been crazy) - get in a watch you're equity grow. Cuz that house that's worth $250K in Regina or Saskatoon now will not lose it's value - it will when it hits $400K, but definately won't now.

And I would underestimate this by any stretch - for most of them, they're just moving home.

[Biff]

I dunno...if I had to place a bet on sustainable growth / investment protection, I'd sure have to stick with Alberta over Saskatchewan.

For probably the next 100 years at least, Oil is going to remain the driver of Alberta's economy. If anything, the viability of the oil sands and the development of both traditional and oil sands production in the peace river area have broadened the base of economic impact from oil operations.

Worldwide oil demand is still increasing (and is projected to continue to INCREASE until at least 2020) and production capacity continues to barely keep pace with demand (which is why prices at the pump can be so volatile). Given that traditional reserves and production will trend downwards over time, then it stands to reason that much of the increased demand will have to be satisfied by new production coming on stream....and guess where the lion's share of that capacity is being built?

In short, the widespread consensus is that oil prices will move towards $100 / barrel in the 10-year window and perhaps $200 / barrel in the 20-year window. Multiply that kind of price by the kind of production capacity already in place, being built, or planned in Alberta and you get a MASSIVE amount of revenue. Revenue that will continue to fuel an agressive economy with significantly higher rate of growth.

As a final piece to the economic puzzle, many of the resources that serve to cool a market economy i.e. market choice, availability of resources (space, labour, etc...) are actually the limited factors in our economy. There is a shortage of things which will cool the economy and an abundance of the one thing that can sustain an over-heated marketplace.....more money.

By way of example, take Fort McMurray....whose housing prices are now marginally higher than Calgary, the vacancy rate for housing is functionally zero (you can rent a campground site for $1000/month if you're lucky), and the infrastructure is pretty seriously strained....and, yet, the "market" in Fort McMurray continues to grow, demand labour from an ever-increasing geographic area, and continues to simply raise wages and compensation to retain resources.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by Fuzzy McGillicuddy

Toronto Star feature ...
http://www.thestar.com/Special/article/219527

Careful what you wish for. The intense rate of growth is unsustainable. We simply can't keep up with the pace. But how much does this thing slow down? And then what?

The cost of living is already getting to some folks. Time to sell the shack, collect the equity, move to Saskatchewan and watch the grass grow.

This doesn't say that things will turn to the negative. It says Cgy can't keep up at the speed of growth that is has over the last couple years. That's obvious. But it will still grow, it is one of the strongest economies on the planet. Some of the largest capital projects on earth are in Alberta. When you move back to Saskatchewan, or anyone else for that matter there will be an engineer from Houston, The Hague or Kuala Lumpur who will take your place.

[Sylvanfan]

Well no doubt things have slowed down, but that last boom really altered people's perception. I put my house on the market yesterday, and it's only been shown 3 times and I'm almost inclined to think WTF these things are supposed to sell like hot cakes and I should have multiple offers!

Reality is that in a traditional economy when things are strong a house still takes 30 days to sell and usually goes for less than list price. People shouldn't be able to take to any commercial strip and have 5 job offers in 20 minutes. The growth won't be as strong, but it's still going to be strong growth. Plus the government needs a bit of a slow down to get construction rates a bit more inline so they can build a few things that are now neccessarry due to this last boom.

[OracleOfCalgary]

When CREB releases its May housing stats for Calgary, the unsold listings will be at or above the record for May. So will prices. I say that sounds like the top.

[McG]

Well, I am in IT and I disagree with this article.

We have never been busier, never been looking for more people, and never had more work. And others in my industry agree with me.

yes, things have to slow down. or they could speed up.

I have zero problem with this growth or the revenues in this province.

how could anyone be unhappy with opportunity?

[metallicat]

Originally Posted by McG

Well, I am in IT and I disagree with this article.

We have never been busier, never been looking for more people, and never had more work. And others in my industry agree with me.

yes, things have to slow down. or they could speed up.

I have zero problem with this growth or the revenues in this province.

how could anyone be unhappy with opportunity?

People who are in rental situations are in tough spots right now. This one guy I work with has two kids, and a wife who is disabled and doesn't work. He moved out of his 700 dollar a month apartment last year, and into a house for 900 a month because it was better for his family. Now the owner is selling the house, and he's looking at renting an apartment for around 1400 a month. On a take home salary of 2000 a month, that's below the poverty level.

This economy is all well and good for people with good paying jobs, or no mortgage, but for some, it's hell. I've said it on here before and I'm not looking to complain, but I'm not long for this province anymore because it doesn't make economic sense for me to stay.

[OracleOfCalgary]

Originally Posted by McG

Well, I am in IT and I disagree with this article.

We have never been busier, never been looking for more people, and never had more work. And others in my industry agree with me.

yes, things have to slow down. or they could speed up.

I have zero problem with this growth or the revenues in this province.

how could anyone be unhappy with opportunity?

In 1990, the Globe and Mail's Career section would typically have 5 pages of IT jobs in Toronto. In 1991, there wasn't even half a page.

In 2000, you could get a good job in Vancouver if you knew how to spell "Java." In 2002, you couldn't even get a volunteer position writing Java.

Things can change very fast, my friend... don't be too c ocky.

[Biff]

No....I'm not going to write another economic dissertation. There is one thing, and one thing only, which can derail Alberta's economy at this point. As long as Oil stays above $50/barrel the Alberta economy will continue to grow. Labour costs, housing availability, infrastructure challenges, real estate costs, simply don't exert enough of a dampening effect against the revenue momentum of our Oil-driven economy.

In fact, I would guess that Oil could move to as low as $30/barrel before it would trigger a recession cycle in Alberta. As long as Oil stays where it is, and God help us as it advances as expected, the Alberta economy as a whole will only fluctuate between strong growth and super-heated growth. It's literally a case of the irresistable economic force.

Even the sabre-rattling over Carbon taxes or hard limits isn't a real recessive influence when Oil's selling price is 4X or more the cost of production. The biggest threat to the Alberta economy is, as it was in the 80's, federal legislation. That's the only prospective bogeyman that could derail Alberta's fundamental economic power.

[Locke]

There was a glow? I always found it to be more of a hazy mist.....