Offence Drying Up - Looking at the Forwards

[Bingo]

Quick look at GF vs xGF for every forward ... not an individual stat but it suggests what should be happening when they're on the ice based on chance splits.

The Good Fortune Group

1. Ruzicka +1.14
2. Backlund +1.10

The Bad Fortune Group

1. Lindholm -3.28
2. Mangiapane -2.80
3. Lewis -2.27
4. Lucic -2.14
5. Coleman -1.72
6. Huberdeau -1.50
7. Rooney -1.35

The Rest

Ritchie, Toffoli, Dube, Kadri all pretty much in line.

What it says ...

Lindholm and Mangiapane especially should rebound with the chance generation they've created. Huberdeau as well. Coleman to some degree. Wouldn't put much stock in the fourth line guys as they don't have the skill to finish average NHL chances.

Backlund's had a hot start and pucks are going in for Ruzicka ... both due for a bit of an adjustment (4-5 goals over the rest of the season)

[Erick Estrada]

Lindholm is concerning. He's not a lot different than Monahan in that he needs a puck distributing winger on his line to bring out offense. I still don't understand why Sutter doesn't put them (Huberdeau) back on the same line as they can both help each other get through their slumps.

[Monahammer]

Huberdeau-Lindholm-Ruzicka

Coleman- Kadri- Toffoli

Mangiapane- Backlund - Dube

I would like to try something like this for a while maybe? Need to break up some of the really cold guys. TBH Kadri is a total enigma to me, I have no idea what kind of player would feel right next to him. I'm not sure we have the right player to play with him right now. Plays best with a strong N/S two way guy like Burakovsky...

[GranteedEV]

I really hate to make this parallel, but it's reminiscent of the tail end of 2017-18 with Gully at the helm.

What do we need IMO?

- line combinations that are less homogenous. Mangiapane and Dube are redundant. Huberdeau and Toffoli are redundant. The whole fourth line is a mess when not cycling.

- More of a green light for the defense to jump into the play. Hanifin and Andersson have been anemic offensively, they get shots through from the point but rarely join the rush.

Give Huberdeau a 'Duclair' (Matty Phillips) and let Dube pull up the fourth line. Mangiapane has chemistry with Backlund and Coleman. And the defense will play more aggressively if we roll with Vladar for a while, since he is making saves.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Lindholm is concerning. He's not a lot different than Monahan in that he needs a puck distributing winger on his line to bring out offense. I still don't understand why Sutter doesn't put them (Huberdeau) back on the same line as they can both help each other get through their slumps.

I don't see players with big negatives as concerning ... just the opposite.

If you want to cling to some hope that is where you're offence is going to grow from.

If you're not generating the expected goals you have an issue as there's no law of averages or puck luck to fix things.

When you are negative it's going to come, because a guy like Lindholm certainly has the release to finish those chances, and the ability to set up linemates to do the same.

Since Ruzicka joined Lindholm's line Linholm is only -0.59 so already seeing a move towards finishing at expected levels.

He was -2.70 before Ruzicka joined the top line and some luck finally came their way.

Linholm and Mangiapane are due for a course correction.

[TheIronMaiden]

I am not going to lie, Huberdeau has been a huge disappointment. Richest contract in Flames history for what?

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

I am not going to lie, Huberdeau has been a huge disappointment. Richest contract in Flames history for what?

For next year. This year his cap hit is 5.9

Remember how bad Dougie Hamilton was in his first 20 games? Patience

Huberdeau is a very good player, everyone will love him 20 games from now

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

For next year. This year his cap hit is 5.9

Remember how bad Dougie Hamilton was in his first 20 games? Patience

Huberdeau is a very good player, everyone will love him 20 games from now

I keep the faith based on who his linemates were in Florida. I'd be more concerned if he needed a huge offensive catalyst to create points.

Backlund/Coleman may not be ideal, but it's not a big change from Bennett/Duclair

[Geeoff]

Pelletier, Zary or Phillips please!

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I keep the faith based on who his linemates were in Florida. I'd be more concerned if he needed a huge offensive catalyst to create points.

Backlund/Coleman may not be ideal, but it's not a big change from Bennett/Duclair

Respectfully disagree- Backlund is probably superior to Bennett overall, but Bennett plays a specific type of game that is likely more condusive to Huberdeau's. Coleman v Duclair isn't fair- they're opposites IMO. Duclair has always had skill but effort and game IQ were constantly questioned. Coleman has effort and game IQ down, but no offence to him he just isn't highly skilled at all.

I can easily see why Huberdeau played a much more offensive game with Bennett and Duclair as linemates. They weren't overly successful playing this game style in playoffs, but i can see why they were successful playing it regular season, and why huberdeau is not finding offensive success with his current linemates.

[Macho0978]

I feel like Toffoli was better away from Huberdeau. After a good start, Dube and Mangiapane aren't working well together.

Huberdeau - Lindholm - Mangiapane
Ruzicka - Kadri - Toffoli
Coleman - Backlund - Dube
Ritchie - Rooney - Lewis

Lucic should sit for a couple games IMO and might be at a point where he only plays against big physical teams.

[Flames1217]

The pieces are there but the blend doesn't work.

Our offence right now reminds me a bit of the 09 defence, on paper it's awesome but the on ice product speaks differently.

Rosey has played well but has zero leash with Sutter, Lindholm has played better lately but started off the season very poorly. Kadri started strong but has returned to what I believe is his natural level of play (~50 point 2 way forward) and Huberdeau started the season injured.

We are missing a top 6 winger and the Mangiapane has been a shadow of himself this year. So bring in a top 6 winger, put Eatbread back with Backs and hope it clicks.

And please Sutter stop putting Lewis in the top 6.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

For next year. This year his cap hit is 5.9

Remember how bad Dougie Hamilton was in his first 20 games? Patience

Huberdeau is a very good player, everyone will love him 20 games from now

The bottom line is that this team will go where Huberdeau takes them. I expect him to improve, sure, but the pressure is deserved. Our cap structure and team composition indicates that we're a win now team, not a maybe next year team. The runway in short, it is time to take off.

[CroFlames]

Are we back to alternating seasons making and missing the playoffs? Ugh.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Respectfully disagree- Backlund is probably superior to Bennett overall, but Bennett plays a specific type of game that is likely more condusive to Huberdeau's. Coleman v Duclair isn't fair- they're opposites IMO. Duclair has always had skill but effort and game IQ were constantly questioned. Coleman has effort and game IQ down, but no offence to him he just isn't highly skilled at all.

I can easily see why Huberdeau played a much more offensive game with Bennett and Duclair as linemates. They weren't overly successful playing this game style in playoffs, but i can see why they were successful playing it regular season, and why huberdeau is not finding offensive success with his current linemates.

Was just pointing out he wasn't playing with uber talents.

Florida played chance swapping hockey, will always give more offensive results.

Huberdeau's xGF60 is down from 3.2 last year to 2.6 with Calgary, but the 2.6 is actually greater than his average in the four previous seasons in Florida. The puck just isn't going in.

His defensive game (xGA6) is 0.9 better year over year, and about 0.7 better than his Florida average.

But is he playing with players that can't finish?

[boogerz]

Huberdeau - Kadri - Phillips
Ruzicka - Lindholm - Toffoli
Mangiapane - Backlund - Coleman
Lucic/Ritchie - Dube - Lewis

Don't mess with the Ruzicka/Lindholm/Toffoli combination that seems to work pretty well.

Reunite the tried and true Mangiapane/Backund/Coleman line

Put Kadri with Huberdeau. Huberdeau gets his puck carrier and Kadri gets a partner talented enough where he feels less inclined to try doing everything himself.

Put Dube at C on the fourth line and see how he responds to being "the guy" on his line instead of a passenger

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

The bottom line is that this team will go where Huberdeau takes them. I expect him to improve, sure, but the pressure is deserved. Our cap structure and team composition indicates that we're a win now team, not a maybe next year team. The runway in short, it is time to take off.

I agree

I also think that Huberdeau is going to excel when he gets chemistry, when his linemates know where to be and he can find them

That tiny bit of time to read what’s going on can take your opportunities away as opponents close on you

I believe that video of him mic’d up in Florida supports this. There were some comments about where they wanted the linemates to be

It will come

[kermitology]

The entire team is a creative black hole. The roster just doesn't fit together. Ultimately the team is pretty boring to watch, and it's worse when they're not winning.

I'm finding myself also quite frustrated with Kadri. The hot start brought a lot of attention but since then I watch a lot of plays die on his stick. His linemates have been pretty terrible, but he's not helping them.

[btimbit]

I do wonder if there's something to the idea of them not being allowed to be creative and have to stick to the rigid system. We know these are good players, but they're just not playing like we know they can

[DeluxeMoustache]

Hopefully that first quarter of the season was a somewhat deliberate part of the process and it’s time to loosen any reins that were tight, and build on it

Starting with Huberdeau back with Lindholm