[CP Story] A Net With No Sure Bets Part 2 - Team Performance

[Bingo]

Part 2 in a three part series looking at the draft for goaltenders.

Part Two - Ranking the Teams

Look away if you want a Calgary good news story!

Next week I'll have a look at how the Flames specifically in part three.

Part one is linked below.

A Net With No Sure Bets Part 1 - League Tendencies

[Strange Brew]

Ouch

[Bingo]

I took part three ... the Flames only edition all the way back to 1972 FYI

[Textcritic]

Thanks, Bingo.

I am wondering with how slowly goalies appear to develop if things look differently by eliminating the last three drafts? I think Mike DiPieteo is the only goalie selected since 20q6 to have played NHL games, so it seems like goalies selected more recently who are still developing could skew the results.

Based on what I see here, it looks like the Flames have the right approach to how they are spending picks on goalies at the draft, but that their goalies have performed very poorly after having been drafted.

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[Eric Vail]

Atlanta was better at drafting and development. They brought in Dan Bouchard, Reggie Lemelin, Pat Riggin in a relatively short timeline.

The brutal goaltending problem is a Calgary Flames problem.

[Harry Lime]

I feel a little solace, in that Philadelphia is really bad at drafting AND trading AND ufa selection. Kiprusoff really saved Calgary for a lot of years, and it's too bad the team in front of him was so erratic.

I actually feel a little bad in this upcoming draft when a team has to make a decision on Askarov. He is going to go high, but what a risk/reward.

I think Chicago will have no choice but to draft him if he hits #9. He could be the next Price, or the next...

Gutsy move would be Ottawa trading #3 for #6 and #17 (NJ), and then taking the goalie. They have no one looking good in the pipeline.

I'm almost as excited for the draft this year as I am for the completion of the season. There are so many good storylines.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Thanks, Bingo.

I am wondering with how slowly goalies appear to develop if things look differently by eliminating the last three drafts? I think Mike DiPieteo is the only goalie selected since 20q6 to have played NHL games, so it seems like goalies selected more recently who are still developing could skew the results.

Based on what I see here, it looks like the Flames have the right approach to how they are spending picks on goalies at the draft, but that their goalies have performed very poorly after having been drafted.

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For sure.

But I included the last three drafts because I wanted to see what teams are doing with picks, and it seemed pointless to ignore the most recent data when looking at team trends.

A team like Philly has 6 goalies that I deemed developing ... Calgary has the two in Parsons and Wolf. The numbers can certainly change if a goalie hits that is a developing goalie now.

What's interesting is the trend away from drafting goalies high despite the need to do so if you want the odds to find a starter.

Only 14 goalies drafted in the top two rounds in the last 5 drafts, that's less than half the teams doing so.

[ricardodw]

in the last 20 Drafts The Flames had no pressing need for a goalie for 9 of those years having Kipper. NJ did not have a pressing need for 15 of the last drafts with Brodeur.

Without a pressing need no sense taking the risk and drafting a goalie in the first 3 rounds.

Teams that have their starter or elite goalie for 4+ years are not going to take a chance on a 3rd round pick. After the third round it is pretty much long odds on getting an NHL player at any position.

62 roster goalies in the NHL, maybe a few more

Goalie Drafted by team

Ana - Gibson Drafted (39 - 2011)
Buf Ullmark Drafted (163 - 2012)
Chi Crawford Drafted (52 - 2003)
CBJ Korpisalo Drafted (62 - 2012)
CBJ Merzlikins Drafted (76 - 2014)
LA Quick Drafted (72 - 2005)
Mtl Price Drafted (5 - 2005)
Nsh Saros Drafted (99 - 2013)
Nsh Rinnie Drafted (258 - 2004)
NJ Blackwood Drafted (42 - 2015)
NYR Lundqvist Drafted (205 - 2000)
NYR Shesterkin Drafted (118 - 2014)
Ott Hogberg Drafted (78 - 2013)
Phi Hart Drafted (48 - 2016)
Pit Murray Drafted (83 - 2012)
Pit Jarry Drafted (44 - 2013)
StL Binnington Drafted (88 - 2011)
StL Allen Drafted (34 - 2008)
TB Vasilevskiy Drafted (19 - 2012)
Van Demko Drafted (36 - 2014)
Was Holtby Drafted (93 - 2008)
Was Samsonov Drafted (22 - 2015)
Wpg Hellebuyck Drafted (130 - 2012)



23 out of say 65 NHL level goalies on 17 teams playing for the team that drafted them

Only 5 picks over 100 that are starting significant games for the team that drafted them.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Bingo

For sure.



But I included the last three drafts because I wanted to see what teams are doing with picks, and it seemed pointless to ignore the most recent data when looking at team trends.



A team like Philly has 6 goalies that I deemed developing ... Calgary has the two in Parsons and Wolf. The numbers can certainly change if a goalie hits that is a developing goalie now.



What's interesting is the trend away from drafting goalies high despite the need to do so if you want the odds to find a starter.



Only 14 goalies drafted in the top two rounds in the last 5 drafts, that's less than half the teams doing so.

As mentioned last week, I think the trend is playing into the success rate. Teams see what you have illustrated here: goalies are a fickle crap-shoot, but the very small handful that do succeed appear more commonly to be high picks. I think teams by-and-large have become extremely reticent to use 1sts and high-2nds when selecting goalies because of the chances and time-frame of success relative to selecting other positions. It has become a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy: far fewer goalies drafted in the first two rounds boosts the success ratio overall.

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