Have the Flames Scouts Really Drafted that Poorly??

[Johnny Rotten]

Almost every article I read regarding the Flames, whether it be by George Johnson, Eric Francis, etc., they say the Flames have few prospects (I think Johnson said during one of his hissy fit columns that they have zero prospects).

They may be right, but the how do the ones the Flames do have stack up? Wahl, Backlund, Howse, Nemisz, Pelech, Brodie, Bouma, Erickson, Sutter, Negrin have shown promise. And I wouldn't rule any of the Flames goalie prospects yet.

Really, how often have Johnson and Francis, etc. seen ANY of these guys play to make any sort of comment? I'm guessing they say this becuase no one has come in the past three/years and really impressed other than maybe Backlund.

I know they have no # 1 and 2 this year, and maybe no #3, and I know Chucko's probably a bust; not a good sign to say the least, especialy the no #1 and 2 picks this year, but that's not the scouts fault.

Also, don't forget, the Flames have had some bad luck with the passing of Mickey Renaud, not to mention Daniel Ryder's unforunate problems.

[Resolute 14]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...es_draft_picks

The NHL results (entering this year) speak for themselves. Not a single player from 2005 onward has made the NHL for any reason but as an injury replacement as of yet. Backlund, of course, will change that to begin next year.

[Johnny Rotten]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...es_draft_picks

The NHL results (entering this year) speak for themselves. Not a single player from 2005 onward has made the NHL for any reason but as an injury replacement as of yet. Backlund, of course, will change that to begin next year.

I'm not denying that (I CAN'T deny that), but I also look at a team that has primarily gone with veterans-seemingly a team choice ever since the lockout. Not to mention that the Flames have traded away a few second round picks. Is that really the scouts fault?

Also, a 2005 pick would only be 23 yrs. old this year. Isn't that a little early to see if a guy is going to be a player or not? I guess the point I'm really trying to make is How does any sports journalist sitting in an office in Calgary really know the potential of the likes of Wahl, Howse, Erickkson etc.

And furthermore, speaking of Backlund, IF he becomes becomes a big time point producer, does that erase the picks of Chucko, etc. from people's minds? Not every pick has to be great, but if one does (i.e. Backlund), that can make up for a few not so good picks.

[Resolute 14]

The 2005 draft was six years ago. If you go six years without producing anything that can step in to the lineup, you are going to see major holes in your roster. Not coincidentally, we suffered this season with major holes in our roster.

When you get right down to it, Phaneuf is the only player we've drafted in the last decade who has, at this point, shown an ability to be anything more than a role player. Lombardi and Kobasew on the fringe of something better, and then what? The Flames really need a couple of these guys to take a quantum leap.

[FastEddy]

Hockey News Future Watch is generally accepted as a good guide. This year there were 23 NHL scouts involved in the rankings. The Flames prospects were ranked 22nd and that's about where they've been for the last four years (Sutter drafts).

The criticism from media-types is based on the assumption that the Flames will not be able to improve much by bringing in young talent. The Kings, Blues, Colorado etc have enough top-level young talent to make a real impact. As these players make the NHL, that top young talent should allow those teams to improve and become contenders. Of course, good drafting is only one of many factors in building a team.

Cap management, team budgets, trading and FA signings are other big factors. Unfortunately, the Flames GM lacks in those areas too except budget, which doesn't seem to help DS much.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The 2005 draft was six years ago. If you go six years without producing anything that can step in to the lineup, you are going to see major holes in your roster. Not coincidentally, we suffered this season with major holes in our roster.

When you get right down to it, Phaneuf is the only player we've drafted in the last decade who has, at this point, shown an ability to be anything more than a role player. Lombardi and Kobasew on the fringe of something better, and then what? The Flames really need a couple of these guys to take a quantum leap.

I count five years from 05. I think before we start questioning any player as a bust, he generally needs five years. Two years in junior and three in the minors. From the 05 draft we have Pelech and Sutter who should make the team. I haven't been real high on Pelech but he's showing a lot of promise and is a late developer what with injuries and his late birthday. Defencemen generally need a little more time to show they're ready than forwards, so they don't have the glamour of the offensive dynamos and it seems most of our best picks are defencemen.

Another player in the last five years, who made the NHL that we developed although didn't draft, was Ryan Wilson. We seem to do pretty well with signing junior FAs, now we just have to hang on to them.

[Roof-Daddy]

The 2005 draft?

1st round - Matt Pelech - Injuries may have delayed his jump to the NHL, but anyone I ever hear talk about this guy all say the same thing.....he's going to be an NHL defenseman, and probably starting next year.

3rd round - Gord Baldwin - Again, all I have to go on is what I read and hear on this site, but has he not taken a big step forward this year with his development? That's what I've been hearing. Bottom line, our team is full of veteran defenseman so a third rounder like this is going to be given plenty of time to develop. At the very least he is making our AHL affiliate a better team for now.

3rd round - Dan Ryder - OK, there is no way in blue hell that you can blame Sutter or the scouts for what happened with this kid. Such a shame, because the talent level was there and he would very likely be (or have been already) knocking down the door for a roster spot as we speak.

4th round - JD Watt - Still with organization. Will he be an NHLer? Probably not, but he was a 4th rounder. At this point in the draft having a player not end up in the NHL isn't a big deal IMO, if they do end up there it's a bonus. At 22 years old though, and still with the organization he's not a complete write off yet.

5th round - Kevin Lalande - Traded for a 3rd rounder this upcoming draft I believe. It's Columbus' pick too, so it'll be an early 3rd rounder. Not bad when you take a 5th round pick that has never played an NHL game and turn him into a 3rd rounder 5 years later.

5th round - Matt Keetley - Still with organization and from what I can gather had a bit of an off year. Still, at 22 and being a goalie, he still has lots of time to turn into an asset down the road.

6th round - Brett Sutter - Just making the jump to the NHL now, and is looking good doing it. As I mentioned with Watt, whenever a pick from this deep in the draft can make your NHL roster (or turn into a viable asset) it's a bonus, no matter what position or role that player fills.

7th round - Myles Rumsey - 7th rounder busted out and didn't make it. Not a big deal.

Looks like a decent draft to me, especially when you look at how many of these guys are still in the organization, or in Lalande's case, been flipped for a future asset.

Also, when you look at what we drafted and when (4 of first 6 picks were either defensemen or goalies - usually take longer to develop) this draft class isn't a write off yet IMO.

Not to mention, if Ryder hadn't taken the road he took and instead had made the jump to the NHL this year along with Sutter, this draft would be looking really good. Either way, you can't blame the scouting staff for the unpredictable circumstances surrounding Ryder.


EDIT: Oh yeah, forgot to mention our second rounder that year. We didn't pick anyone in that spot because Sutter had traded it away......for Mikka freakin Kiprusoff. Pretty good asset management if you ask me. A franchise goalie for a second round pick? Yeah, I'll take that deal any day.

[bubbsy]

meh, i don't think you can blame Sutter for the drafting. Team was often picking late, and it seems like everyone wants the flames to pick a diamond in the rough. If it were that easy/often, it wouldn't be called 'picking a diamong in the rough'.

I think the flames have a pretty good eye for Dmen. I would, however, prefer a little bit more risk taking when it comes to the forwards.

I feel that the risk/reward for the western hockey players is quite small, hey if they don't turn out to be top 6 guys, they could likely be ok bottom 6 guys. Taking some risks and getting flat out offense, has the high reward potential, but the high risk in that, if they don't pan out, their likely not NHL/AHL caliber at all.

[Da_Chief]

So the OP, are you a Flames scout?

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

I count five years from 05. I think before we start questioning any player as a bust, he generally needs five years. Two years in junior and three in the minors.

Depth guys tend to go that route, but the kind of players we need - top six forwards - will generally play one more year of junior and 1+ pro after their draft year before breaking into the NHL. Case in point: Backlund. That is what we are desperately lacking in the system.

It should, however, also be noted that the scouts identified Giordano's potential. As a non-drafted player, he is a guy who took one of those quantum leaps we needed. From an NHL talent perspective, the team also identified the potential guys like Glencross and Bourque had that Edmonton and Chicago missed.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Depth guys tend to go that route, but the kind of players we need - top six forwards - will generally play one more year of junior and 1+ pro after their draft year before breaking into the NHL. Case in point: Backlund. That is what we are desperately lacking in the system.

It should, however, also be noted that the scouts identified Giordano's potential. As a non-drafted player, he is a guy who took one of those quantum leaps we needed. From an NHL talent perspective, the team also identified the potential guys like Glencross and Bourque had that Edmonton and Chicago missed.

Canadian junior players can't do that. They play (18 year old draftees) two years more in junior or straight to the NHL. It's the law.

[dobbles]

i think one thing that should be considered is that every team has more than a handful of prospects that look like great ones but are still in juniors, college, or europe. lots of guys can look really good at those levels but never really impact the nhl or ahl team. i kind of look at it like the end of season reports that many give regarding farm teams and such; they rarely state that prospects look bad so somehow people are led to believe that all of a sudden a team has 20 nhl ready players on its farm team. so while there may be some players long off in the pipeline, i am sure several of them will lose their edge by the time it comes to get to the big show.

and when looking at the current ahl roster does it really give much to be excited about? the team points leader is a veteran ahl guy in jaffray. i seriously doubt he ever puts on a calgary jersey. second on the team in goals? cam freaking cunning. don't get me wrong, cam is hands down my favorite player from the 2 years the team was here, but he's a total 4th line energy type guy. david van der gulik? he has 4th line potential i guess, but has had 4 full seasons in the minors, i assume his window ahs to be closing fast for a shot at the nhl. backlund pretty much earned his spot this spring and sutter looked alright as yet another 4th line plugger. but is there anyone that was in abby this year that exactly inspires confidence that they will score more than 10 goals in an nhl season? outside of backlund i would say no.

on defense its a lot easier to be optimistic, but how long does pelech have to be the next big thing? heck last year he was in such a funk mcgill played him at forward just to try and get hit head on straight. additionally, its great to have all these ahl defensemen, but when you have tons of veterans locked up long term, whats the point?

at goal, you have a prospect in irving, but does getting sent down to the echl really bode well? keetley had to be sent down last year as well because of poor play.



personally, i feel its hard to just blame scouts for these problems, as the process for getting a guy to the nhl is often several years if you aren't talking about a top 5 pick. so you have to rely on their coaches in juniors, your minor league coaches, and some old fashioned luck. so personally i wouldn't want to put it just on scouts; however, there seems to be a lot of love for the flames prospects, but to me they still seem pretty weak.

[Johnny Rotten]

I've subscribed to the The Hockey News for years, and they are not always right. (Look at the "Rewind" part of those issues, where they go back 5 and10 years and show the how they ranked players at that time. They are wrong quite often.)

I think the key for the Flames prospects is development. That is why I think that time in A.H.L is so important and then the kids have to be given a chance to see how they match up in the big leagues. Backlund, and Sutter to a lesser degree, have shown some promise. Hopefully, Wahl, Nemisz, etc. show that next year when they are probably in Abbotsford.

I have to say that I like the Flames prospects more today than I did 3-4 years ago.

[Cactus Jack]

Johnny Rotten, the Flames have had 52 picks since Darryl drafted Dion 7 years ago. Other than Dion (who Darryl gave up on), Darryl's best picks are Boyd, Pardy, Prust and maybe Backlund. The bottom line is some guys may make the NHL but the odds of most of them being any better than a Jamal Mayers, Chris Higgins or Ian White are slim. There is no high end talent to be found.

Virtually every other team has drafted an impact player outside of the top 10 picks since 03 in a draft except Calgary. The fact that you hang your hat solely on hope for the future should give you an indication of how poor the drafting is. If there were something tangible, you'd be mentioning it. Calgary's drafting is grasping at straws

[Johnny Rotten]

Originally Posted by Cactus Jack

Johnny Rotten, the Flames have had 52 picks since Darryl drafted Dion 7 years ago. Other than Dion (who Darryl gave up on), Darryl's best picks are Boyd, Pardy, Prust and maybe Backlund. The bottom line is some guys may make the NHL but the odds of most of them being any better than a Jamal Mayers, Chris Higgins or Ian White are slim. There is no high end talent to be found.

Virtually every other team has drafted an impact player outside of the top 10 picks since 03 in a draft except Calgary. The fact that you hang your hat solely on hope for the future should give you an indication of how poor the drafting is. If there were something tangible, you'd be mentioning it. Calgary's drafting is grasping at straws

That may be true about Boyd, Pardy, and Prust, but you and I both know that it's too early to say that because Wahl, Nemisz, Eriksson are 20 or younger. And quite honestly, I and probably you haven't seen these guys play enough to make a judgment on their picks during the past 2-3 years.

[I_H8_Crawford]

One thing is - we probably will never know how good the drafted players really are under Sutter since he never likes giving them a chance.

Let's not forget that if it weren't for a completely freak injury to Langkow, Backlund doesn't get the chance to show he can be a top-6 NHLer.

[Sylvanfan]

I think you need to evaluate the drafts from 2006 and prior differently than the ones that have happened since. The Flames were a money losing organization until 2003, and they did budget to lose money for that 03-04 season which meant the same low scouting budget. In 2005 they kept what they had for scouts so again doing it on a low budget. In 05-06, things were unknown and the scouting staff was largely the same. For the 2007 draft they did make quite a few additions to the staff and parted ways with some other scouts. Plus it wasn't until the 05-06 season that the team finally did have their own AHL affiliate again.

Plus lets face it scouts with more picks are going to do better. In the past few years the Flames scouts are usually only getting 5-6 picks. Whereas some other teams are getting 10-11 picks and often 5 picks in the first 60 players. Blaming the GM, or blaming the scouts is too easy. I do think that perhaps a new head scout should be brought in as Todd Button has been around for quite some time now. But the whole organizations phillosophy towards scouting, drafting, and player development could be improved. Be it allocate a higher budget, or put more emphasis on making sure the team has enough draft picks for each draft. At some point the owners need to put a bit more priority on this and insist that this be done. Right now I don't think they are, and even in the young guns days I think they were more concerned with trying to make the playoffs and lose less money than trying to rebuild the team in the draft.

[FlamesAddiction]

A lot of these guys like Howse, Wahl, Nemisz, Bouma, Brodie ect... look like they may be half decent, but it is way too early to tell. People often get in crap for proclaiming prospects to be busts too early, but I see the same thing happen the other way around. People look at these guys who do alright in junior and proclaim that things are looking up. Basically, I don't think you can really start to judge until at least one full year of pro. Guys like Negrin and Backlund look ok, but even with them, it is too early. I recall that Oleg Saprykin looked ok when he was a new player but then he just never progressed. Backlund could easily be in that category too for all we know. Sorry to be a downer...

The Flames have been good at producing AHL players, but that is about it.

[FlamesAddiction]

I think sometimes a big let down of our player development is that we keep them in the AHL for too long and ened up developing AHL players. The NHL club is in a way, a big part of a team's developmental system and I think the Flames don't look at it that way at all, until maybe this year with Backlund coming in late.

[Imported_Aussie]

Another thing that has impacted the flames drafting is organizational needs. The team was trading picks for proven players and not drafting high due to the team being in the mix each year. Also, with a shallow prospect pool and the need for stability there, flashier picks were passed over for functional pieces. Also, with a team contending with a more veteran roster, longer projects (ie Pelech, Irving) were drafted as there was no immediate need to rush in a young player. The prospect pool isnt rated highly as it has few "home runs" but what it does have is a number of guys who could pan out to be those "supporting cast" guys.
Could it be better? of course, but its far from a poor draft record