2010 Olympics Canadian Predictions

[octothorp]

So I got frustrated not being able to find any realistic medal predictions for Canada, so I went through the stats and did my own. I think it's pretty comprehensive; long enough that I'll have to do it in two parts:

Bobsleigh: Leuders is having a disappointing season in what will probably be his last. That said, he'd love to go out with another Olympic medal, and the home track is typically a big advantage in Bobsleigh. His best result this season is a 4th place in two-man and 9th place in four. He did get a bronze in two man and 4th in four man last year in the world cup race held at Whistler. His four man team is really struggling this year. Lyndon Rush has a great chance to finally emerge from Leuders' shadow this year. He got 4th last year in two-man at Whistler, and this year his four-man team looks very good, with three top-four finishes in five races. On the women's side, things are looking very good: both Humphries and Upperton have consistenly registered top five finishes (with a combined four medals in five races) and a double-medal is well within the realm of possibility.
Prediction: 2 medals. 3 or even 4 is a possibility.

Luge: Canada is without a serious medal contender here: Alex Gough on the women's side and Samuel Edney on the men's each have one top five finish this season, and home track advantage does play a significant role in the sport, so a medal shot is not outside the realm of possibility.
Prediction: no medals.

Skeleton: Last year at Whistler, Jon Montgomery and Jeff Pain got gold and bronze, respectively, and both have a medal finish this year. Pain earned a bronze last Olympics, and would love to get another. The women, surprisingly, were shut out at Whistler last year, but Melissa Hollingsworth has five medals in six races this year, and should be considered one of Canada's best medal contenders in any sport. She already has an Olympic bronze, and has a good chance of bettering that result. Amy Gough has a silver this year and Michelle Kelly has two top five finishes.
Prediction: A followup to last Olympics, where Canada finished with three medals in two races, is going to be difficult. Double medals are a possibility in both races, but I think 2 medals total is a realistic prediction.

Ski Jumping: We have no ski jumpers in the top 100 in the world. Prediction: nope.

Nordic Combined: See ski-jumping.

Alpine Skiing: It looked like Canada was going to be peaking just in time for these games, but it's getting hard to keep up with all the injuries. On the men's side, Osborne-Paradis is the best medal shot. He's been very good at all disciplines this year, with two top 10 finishes in giant slalom, a 1st in super G, and a 1st in downhill. Robbie Dixon has top 10 finishes in both the giant slalom and downhill. Erik Guay has two top ten super G finishes, including a fourth at Lake Louise. Michael Janyk had his career best result, a slalom 5th, this season. On the women's side, Emily Brydon has five podium finishes in the last two years that she competed, including two in the downhill this year. Vancouver native Britt Janyk will look to bounce back from a difficult season last year. Two of Canada's other top skiiers on the women's side - Goodman and Vanderbeek - are both injured. Not sure if either will make it back for the Olympics.
Prediction: Predicting which Canadian athletes will rise here is extremely difficult. There isn't anything close to a sure medal here, but there's no shortage of athletes who have the potential to get to the podium. I think they'll end up with 1 medal. I'd go with Brydon in the downhill, but realistically it could come from anywhere. Canada hasn't medaled in alpine since 94, so even one would be an improvement.

Biathlon: Unlikely event for Canada. Le Guellec has two top ten finishes in his career (no podium finishes). On the women's side, Zina Kocher is suddenly an athlete worth paying attention to, as she had finished 4th in an event last month.
Prediction: no medals, but a top 10 finish here would be a major breakthrough for the sport. I think either Guellec or Kocher will make that happen.

Cross Country Skiing: Oddly, the men's side looks like a slightly better shot then the women's this time around, though both are longshots. Both Renner and Crawford are a long way down in the standings on the women's side, though on the men's side, Devon Kershaw has been consistently in the top 20 over the last two years.
Prediction: No medals. This event produced two surprise medals for the women in Torino, and Beckie Scott famously got a gold in Salt Lake. Coming away with any sort of hardware this time will be very difficult. Still, it's produced some of the best stories for Canadians in the last two Olympics, so it's worth keeping an eye on.

Curling: Martin had a disappointing result in Nagano (silver), and despite winning the World Championship in '08, still has a bit of a reputation to overcome as underperforming in international competition. Cheryl Bernard is a real questionmark, as she was certainly not the favorite at the trials. Prediction: 2 medals. Though Canadians will obsess over the colour (especially if Martin fails to win gold).

Figure Skating: Patrick Chan seems to be in more commercials than almost any other amateur Canadian athlete. And there's reason to hope that he'll take the men's program back to a level it hasn't been at since Elvis Stojko. He's had solid results in International Competition (though has been struggling with an injury this year). Joanne Rochette won a silver at the worlds last year, and has been on or around the podium in almost every major international event since her 5th place finish at the last Olympics. Definitely a veteran who should be able to handle the intense amount of pressure the Canadian figure-skaters will receive. Same goes for Virtue and Moir in the ice dancing: they've medaled consistently over the last three years, so this time around should be no different. In pairs, Canada has three solid top-ten couples, but only one of them (Dube/Davidson) has ever medaled in a major international event. They, or Duhamel and Buntin, or Brodeur and Mattatall, could find a way onto the podium, but it shouldn't be expected: there are some very good couples - particularly the Chinese and Russians - who are unlikely to falter.
Medal predictions: This is a sport where one slip can take you out of the medal running, so no medal is guaranteed no matter how strong the contender. I'm going to predict 3 medals: Rochette and Virtue/Moir have very good chances, and I think Chan will handle the pressure better than the last decade of male hopefuls.

[octothorp]

Freestyle Ariels: On the men's side, Steve Omischl is Canada's best performer, although he hasn't had any podium finishes yet this year. Oliver Rochon and Ryan Blais are both in the top 20, but Rochon has never had a podium finish, and Blais has not had one since 2007. On the ladies' side, Canada has three women in the top 20, but none in the top 10. Veronika Bauer has a great history in the sport, but along with relative newcomers Amber Peterson and Sabrina Guerin, they're very unlikely to medal. Actually, anything other than a Chinese sweep would be a bit of a surprise.
Moguls: Jennifer Heil won gold here in Turin, and along with fellow Canadian Kristi Richards, is dominating the world cup circuit once again. Heil has been the model of consistency over the last five years, and has 45 world cup podiums in 77 starts, as well as two world championship titles. With this event on the first day of competition, my money is on Heil to become the first Canadian to win gold on home soil. Richards has a world cup victory this year, so she can't be ruled out either. On the men's side, last year Canada was clearly the best nation in the world, with three of the top four athletes; this year, Alexandre Bilodeau is still one of the top three in the world, but neither Vincent Marquis or Pierre Alexandre Rosseau have performed well this year. Both have podium finishes and victories in their past though.
Ski-cross: First year for this event, and one that could be good for Canada. Just this week, Canada got three medals at a world cup event. On the men's side, Christopher Delbosco had his second ever world cup victory, and Stanley Hayer also has a podium finish this season, as does David Duncan. On the women's side, Ashley McIvor and Julia Murray are ranked second and third in the world this season. Kelsey Serwa was ranked third in the world last year, but was off to a rough start this year prior to winning gold at this most recent event.
Medal predictions: I'm going to go with 4: Nothing in freestyle, but each of the four events in moguls and ski-cross could have a Canadian in the mix, and in the case of the women's events, possibly multiple medals in either of them.

Ice Hockey: I'm going to be brief with this one, since everyone on the board is familiar with the situation. A women's medal is as sure a thing as automatic, the only real question is whether it'll be gold or silver. The men's team has to be considered the favorite for gold, but there's at least three or four teams that will push them, so a medal is not a certainty.
Medal Predictions: 2 medals.

Snowboarding Cross: Robert Fagan has three silvers in world cup races including one this year, and is third overall in world cup standings. Mike Robertson had two podiums last year, but none yet this year; still can't be counted out. On the women's side, Maelle Ricker is having a great season, winning two of the three races she's competed in this year, and four of the last six going back to last season. Dominique Maltaise has podiums in four of her last five. Both Ricker and Maltaise struggled at the last world cup event, but a double medal isn't out of the question here, as they shared the podium in their first and second races this year.
Snowboarding Halfpipe: Mercedez Nicole has some top ten finishes in the last couple seasons, but hasn't been on the podium since 2005, and she's Canada's only real shot on the women's side. On the men's side, Brad Martin has a few podiums in the last couple years, including a silver last february, but he hasn't competed since August and I can't find any injury info on him. Prospects are not good in halfpipe.
Snowboarding Parallel: Prospects are much better here, with three men in the top seven in the world this season. Jasey Jay Anderson again leads the way for Canada, and has two golds, a bronze and a fifth in his four starts this year. Michael Lambert had his first podium finish, a silver, in december, and Matthew Morison won gold a week later. Morison is interesting, because he has ten podiums in 37 world cup races, so he definitely has the high end potential, but his consistency is weak, as he has a lot of finishes outside of the top 10. On the women's side, Kimiko Zakreski is much the same story: a podium finish last month, but only two other top 10 finishes in her career.
Medal Prediction: 2 medals, likely in women's cross and men's parallel. Multiple medals in both those races are not out of the question though. I think Canada will definitely improve on the one bronze in 2006 though.

Short track speedskating: On the men's side, Charles Hamlin is looking fantastic right now. At a world cup event in Montreal this year, he won the 1500, the 500, finished 3rd in the 1000, and led the Canadian team to a silver in the relay. At the next event, he won a bronze in the 1500, while brother Francois won bronze in the 1000 and Francois-Louis Tremblay won gold in the 500, and the relay team won gold as well. Tremblay is off from his prime overall, but is still a threat in the 500. Francois Hamlin is a less likely medal threat, but could rise to the challenge.
On the women's side, the Chinese have been absolutely dominant in every discipline this year, but three different Canadians have won silver or bronze medals in the 500: Kalyna Roberge, Jessica Gregg, and Marianne St. Gelais. As well, the women's relay team has won bronze in all four races this year.
Medal Prediction: 5 medals. I'd like to go higher, but the nature of the sport is just so unpredictable. Still, the men's side is a threat in every race, and the women's side is consistent in two of the four races. This was a solid event for Canada at the last Olympics, with four medals, three of them silver.


Long-track speedskating: On the men's side: Start with the 500: Jamie Gregg had a bronze at a world cup race in Calgary, and the home crowd could give him a similar result this time around. Same goes for Denny Morrison in the 1000, and he's added two bronze in the 1500. Lucas Makowsky has also had a silver in the 1500, meaning that Canadians have medaled in more than half the world cup 1500 races this year. Canada doesn't have a medal in the 10,000. Canada has been very strong at team pursuit, medaling in four of the last six world cup races.
On the women's side, this will be one of the most-watched disciplines for Canadians. Christine Nesbitt is the best chance in the 500, though she has no medal finishes this year. However, Nesbitt has won every single 1000 race this year on the circuit. Kristina Groves has just missed the podium in the 1000, and last year had four podium finishes in the event. Groves and Nesbitt have been dominant in the 1500 as well, each winning gold twice in the five races that have been held. Infact, when you include teammate Brittany Schlusser's bronze, Canada has won nine of the fifteen medals awarded in the event this year. Groves also has a bronze in the 3000, Canada's lone medal in the event. Now, you may notice a couple names missing from the list: neither Clara Hughes or Cindy Klassen have medaled yet this year, although Hughes has been close in the 3000. Cindy Klassen is coming back from injury and will be focusing on the 3000, and given her pedigree, cannot be ruled out. Canada has a great medal shot in the team pursuit, with two golds and a silver in three races this year.
Medal prediction: This is one sport where Canada might have trouble matching the Torino totals: eight is a lofty goal. On the men's side, I expect another medal in the relay, but none in the solo races (they could surprise though). On the women's side, I expect one in the 1000, two in the 1500, and one in the team pursuit. Whether either Klassen or Hughes can medal in the distance races is a big question mark; either would be a huge story. I think Hughes gets it done. So I'm predicting 5 for the Canadians here.


Total: well, it adds up to 28 medals, but I'm going to downgrade that slightly given that some people will shockingly underpreform. Let's say 25, which still seems pretty optimistic given previous performances. But the home advantage, some new sports that we should excel at, and a lot of athletes peaking at the right time could make it the best Olympics ever for Canada.

Bonus predictions:
Jennifer Heil will win the first gold medal on Canadian soil.
Kristina Groves will win the most Canadian medals, with 3.
Kimiko Zakreski is my longshot, never-heard-of-before medalist pick.

[octothorp]

Both Hollingsworth and Heil further cemented their place as medal favorites: Heil won gold (the rest of the moguls team had a very disappointing event), and Hollingsworth won a silver, now winning medals in 6 of the last 7 skeleton events. I'll update continue to update noteworthy performances in this thread.

edit: and Maltais and Ricker both medaled in a snowboard cross race today, meaning that they've shared the podium in three of four races this season. Francois Bouvin, who I didn't have on my list above, finished fourth on the men's side and now has an Olympic berth.

[octothorp]

Might deserve it's own thread, but Clara Hughes is reported to be Canada's flag bearer. Awesome choice; I wasn't sure they'd ask her again after she declined in Turin, but she's very deserving.

http://www.ctvolympics.ca/news-centr...tml?cid=rsstsn

[fundmark19]

mens skeleton montgomery will medal! Guys a stud! We support him at work and I have a good feeling about him this year!

[Jesse834]

The Olympics suck!

[3 Justin 3]

Hopefully we clean up in speed skating.

There are barely any events in the Winter Olympics compared to the Summer Olympics.

We need Ice Bikini Volley Ball.

[Canada 02]

http://www.forbes.com/2010/01/19/oly...ts-medals.html

The result: Over the past five Olympics, from the 2000 Summer Games in Sydney through the 2008 Summer Games in Beijing, Johnson's model demonstrated 94% accuracy between predicted and actual national medal counts. For gold medal wins, the correlation is 87%.

If events play out as his economic model predicts, it would be the first time for Canada to be atop the final medals scoreboard at an Olympic venue. Johnson's forecast calls for Canadian athletes to collect 27 medals altogether, five of them gold.

[YourCalgaryFlames!!!!]

I would love to see Patrick Chan win the Gold in skating

[chris_yk]

The men's short track speedskating team would have an even better chance if they didn't leave at home a guy who's broken a world record in each of the 500m, 1000m and 1500m distances in the past year and a half (1 since broken, 2 unofficial but still Canadian records). It's all politics with Speedskate Canada. Anyways I think the women's side of short track will have a lot of success, although the Chinese and Koreans will be tough to beat. Look for Jessica Gregg to do well. Oh and good call on Kimi Zakreski as a darkhorse, she's just coming off a podium finish too.

[Matty81]

I'm headed to the moguls Sunday and I hope Dale Begg-Smith falls on his spam sending turncoat butt! I think Bilodeau has a great shot.

[liza20005]

lolllll

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

http://www.forbes.com/2010/01/19/oly...ts-medals.html

I saw this guy on BNN yesterday. Pretty interesting that he does so well in his forecasts and doesn't give any weighting to the athletes or factors like that!

[Cactus Jack]

Goooooooooooooooo Caaaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnaaaaaaaadddddddaaaaaaa

[Table 5]

What a great thread, thanks Octothorp, just what I've been looking for but could never find.

[OILFAN #81]

OT: One of the lugers (is that a word lol) from Georgia is being administered CPR after crashing and hitting a pole at 140 mph.

[Kybosh]

Originally Posted by OILFAN #81

OT: One of the lugers (is that a word lol) from Georgia is being administered CPR after crashing and hitting a pole at 140 mph.

CTV just showed the crash on television. It did not look good and I really hope that guy is ok. It looked terrible actually, very disturbing.

[octothorp]

By my count, on pace for 27 now: with the men failing to medal in the short-track 1500. On the bright side, things look good for the women's short track, with all three skaters advancing to the semifinals, and the relay team advancing to the finals where they have a great shot at medaling.

[octothorp]

I'm upping my prediction up to 29 with the results of yesterday and today. No big disappointments (the pairs figure skating, men's downhill, and men's 500m were longshots and never predicted), while the women's long-trackers looked great in their race, and with the snowboard cross medal, the snowboard team is on pace for 3 or possibly 4.

[octothorp]

Time for an update:
Bobsleigh: still a solid shot at 2 in women's and 4 man
Luge: 0
Skeleton: 1
Ski-jumping: 0
Nordic Combined: 0
Biathalon: 0
Cross Country Skiing: 0
Alpine Skiing: still a few races to go, but not much to get excited about. Probably 0
Curling: on pace for 2
Figure Skating: 1 looking likely, still a shot at one in the women's, as well
Freestyle: 2 down, 2 to go
Ice Hockey: still a shot at 2
Snowboard: 2 down, solid shot at 1 more
Short track: 1 down, still 3 good events
Longtrack: 2 down, as many as 4 more is realistic (all on the women's side)

That means we're on pace for 26 now by my count, if (and this is a huge if) the remaining athletes live up to their expectations. Definitely won't win the medal race, but not a disaster either. But man, the way that we're losing events is really discouraging.