Iran Clerics Declare Election Invalid

[Nehkara]

Iran clerics declare election invalid and condemn crackdown

Iran’s biggest group of clerics has declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s re-election to be illegitimate and condemned the subsequent crackdown.

“It’s a clerical mutiny,” said one Iranian analyst. “This is the first time ever you have all these big clerics openly challenging the leader’s decision.” Another, in Tehran, said: “We are seeing the birth of a new political front.”

Professor Ali Ansari, head of Iranian Studies at St Andrews University, said: “It’s highly significant. It shows this is nowhere near resolved.”

The association did not support a candidate in the election, but has now lined up firmly behind Mr Mousavi. In a rebuke to the regime it declared on its website: “Candidates’ complaints and strong evidence of vote-rigging were ignored . . . Peaceful protests by Iranians were violently oppressed . . . Dozens of Iranians were killed and hundreds were illegally arrested . . . The outcome is invalid.”

It called on other clerics to speak out, demanded the release of all those arrested in the past three weeks, and directly challenged the authority of the Guardian Council, a body of 12 senior clerics that has openly backed Mr Ahmadinejad and his patron, Mr Khamenei. “How can one accept the legitimacy of the election just because the Guardian Council says so?,” it asked.

The situation in Iran seems far from resolved and I am glad to see the clerics speaking out, they seem to have a lot of followers and clout.

I hope they find a way to get rid of Ahmadinejad.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Wow...this is epic. Its going to be enthralling to see how this plays out...

[Caged Great]

I am hoping that this leads to change.

[Kipper is King]

Whoa. The whole situation just became even more interesting.

Is a reelection now plausible?

[HotHotHeat]

Massive news.

I'm shocked.

[Regulator75]

Wow, I didn't see this one coming.

[Thor]

I'm speechless, this is going to get really interesting.

[CaptainCrunch]

Hold onto your a##es folks, we're about to see a civil way.

[browna]

Interesting reversal, without doubt. Bloodshed usually doesn't change things in that part of the world, but seems to have in this case.

On a lighter note, the Blackhawks could use this sort of cleric(al) efficiency.

[CrusaderPi]

I've never seen so many people made speechless on the internet before. But wow is right. I'm stunned.

[Nehkara]

This is another really interesting part of the article that talks about a new political group forming to bring down Ahmadinejad:

On Wednesday, a day after the Guardian Council said that the election result was final, Mr Mousavi talked of forming a new political grouping to fight an illegitimate government.

With the popular former president Mohammad Khatami and Medhi Karoubi, another defeated candidate, challenging the Government’s legitimacy, and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, another former president, pointedly meeting the families of those killed in street demonstrations, that coalition is beginning to take shape.

“The fact that anyone dares to condemn the election when people were calling for Mousavi and Karoubi’s heads is remarkable,” said the analyst in Tehran. “It shows there is depth to Mousavi’s support. They have not been bullied into silence, there are factions forming and this is not over.”

Mr Mousavi issued a 25-page paper detailing election abuses ranging from the printing of 14 million extra ballot papers to bribes to ballot boxes containing not a single vote for him even in his hometown.

[octothorp]

Wow, colour me seechless too. I think it was pretty clear that there was a large number of clerics siding with the moderates, but I really didn't expect them to speak out with a unified voice. Obviously it gives support to the people in the streets, and I hope to see some big rallies planned next week, defying the government to crack down on them now.

And it makes the arrest of Mousavi much less likely if there are hundreds of other clerics echoing the same claims he makes. For the Republican Guard to go to Qom and start arresting clerics would incite the vast, vast majority of Iranians, both reformists and conservatives.

I think the greater political implication is that the Assembly of Experts - the political body with the power to dismiss the supreme leader and run by moderate cleric Rafsanjani - now knows that they have the support of a large number of clerics if they were to dismiss Khamenei if he doesn't change his course immediately.
(okay, so I'm not entirely speechless. But pretty close.)

[Resolute 14]

When someone inevitably martyrs Mousavi, this will really become interesting. Someone is going to get it in their head that to kill this hydra, they will have to cut off the head.

Whether or not this happens, one has to wonder how close Iran is to a revolution.

[mykalberta]

Until I see someone who actually knows anything about Iran verify the legitimacy of these clerics I will remain sceptical.

Its not Amadinijon that is the problem. Its the Supreme Leader who acts as the Leader of the country and for which there isnt an election.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

When someone inevitably martyrs Mousavi, this will really become interesting. Someone is going to get it in their head that to kill this hydra, they will have to cut off the head.

Whether or not this happens, one has to wonder how close Iran is to a revolution.

It's really hard to say; the amount of conflict involved will likely depend on the republican guard. It sounds like this new political coalition is going to bring to the forefront a lot of ideas about Iranian politics that have been discussed in the shadows for years: that the Supreme Leader is too powerful, and should perhaps not even be a single leader but be a council of clerics. You can bet that they also feel that the supreme leader should not have his own personal army.

Let's say, hypothetically, that they call for massive overhaul, the AoE dismisses Khamenei, he peacefully steps down, and new elections are planned. Even in that situation, would the republican guard simply accept this and cease to exist and merge with the regular army, or would they attempt a coup of their own?

It makes me think of 'I, Claudius' where Claudius was thrust into power by the military, in part because they realized that if Rome were to return to a true republic with no caesar, then the military would lose much of their influence.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by mykalberta

Until I see someone who actually knows anything about Iran verify the legitimacy of these clerics I will remain sceptical.

Its not Amadinijon that is the problem. Its the Supreme Leader who acts as the Leader of the country and for which there isnt an election.

I'm not an expert, but I'll tell you what I do know: this group of clerics is a purely theocratic, non-political organization, traditionally. They have no official political power, although they do recommend judges to Khamenei, and also nominate a list of supreme leaders for the Assembly of Experts to chose from, should a new supreme leader be needed. They include several grand ayatollahs who are equal to Khamenei in terms of stature is Shia Islam.

The important implication here, as I mentioned earlier, is for the Assembly of Experts. They do have the power to remove Khamenei from power and they are dominated by moderates and chaired by the very powerful and influential Rafsanjani, who has butted heads with Khamenei repeatedly. So far, they have been cautious to stick their necks out. They now know that they have some very strong supporters in this conflict.

Even though all we hear publically is about Ahmadinejad, make no mistake, this is about the Supreme Leader. He has made this about himself, and if you read between the lines, this statement is not a statement against Ahmadinejad but against Khamenei.

I think that the next move is that the Assembly of Experts will meet, and basically say that unless Khamenei ceases the violent crackdowns and calls for a do-over on the election, they'll move to dismiss him from power. Because AoE meetings are secret and the only person who sees the transcripts of the meetings is Khamenei himself, they can use these meetings to discretely give him an ultimatum. Whether Khamenei calls them on it or backs down though is anyone's guess.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by octothorp

It's really hard to say; the amount of conflict involved will likely depend on the republican guard. It sounds like this new political coalition is going to bring to the forefront a lot of ideas about Iranian politics that have been discussed in the shadows for years: that the Supreme Leader is too powerful, and should perhaps not even be a single leader but be a council of clerics. You can bet that they also feel that the supreme leader should not have his own personal army.

Let's say, hypothetically, that they call for massive overhaul, the AoE dismisses Khamenei, he peacefully steps down, and new elections are planned. Even in that situation, would the republican guard simply accept this and cease to exist and merge with the regular army, or would they attempt a coup of their own?

It makes me think of 'I, Claudius' where Claudius was thrust into power by the military, in part because they realized that if Rome were to return to a true republic with no caesar, then the military would lose much of their influence.

Here's the problem and its two fold.

You can't believe that Khamenei will peacefully step down, This is a guy that survived the excesses of the Shah and was a key part in the last revolution. He's a saavy political animal and he has the republican guard firmly behind him and the de-facto president firmly behind him. He's certainly not going to step down peacefully. He's going to consolidate his power and attempt to crush this possible revolution in the crib.

The army doesn't like the Republican Guard, they never have and treat them with a great deal of suspicion. In fact the Iranian government doesn't even trust their military thats why you see occassional officer purges to keep the rest in line. It would be interesting to see what would happen if the army was deployed to deal with the dissidents because to this point I don't think we've seen a huge army presense. So the military has now become the thousand pound elephant in the room, who's side are they going to fall on when the crap hits the fan. I'm betting both sides of this mess have reached out to individual commanders to guage their loyalty.

[Ozy_Flame]

[Cowperson]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

So the military has now become the thousand pound elephant in the room, who's side are they going to fall on when the crap hits the fan. .

Yep, just like 1979.

When the military gave up on the Shah, it was over . . . . .

That was also a people power movement.

Cowperson

[FlamesAddiction]

It is pretty exciting. I'm a firm believer that the only way to install values of democracy and freedom is from within, and the society has to ready accept those values. It's a difficult and expensive system, and requires fairly liberal society.