Al Qaeda's New Front

[Mike F]

I'm once again pimping PBS' Frontline series, with this installment looking at how Al Qaeda has morphed since 9/11 and the war in Afghanistan, becoming a decentralized network of loosely connected cells based largely in Europe.

"... bin Laden and his lieutenants did have control of this whole social movement for five years, from 1996 to 2001. But all of that changed when Al Qaeda's control "more or less evaporated" at their height in 2001 after the loss of its sanctuary in Afghanistan.

Ironically, it was at the precise time of Al Qaeda's peak that the downfall in terms of control of the jihadi movement occurred. The organization had conducted a series of successful attacks, from the U.S. embassy bombings in East Africa to the attack on the U.S.S. Cole in Yemen, which Sageman says made them more confident that they could do things without "negative consequences." The invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11 "was a surprise to them."

But even with the strong U.S. response, Sageman says bin Laden's "hands-off management style" paid off very well since he had created a system that could survive by itself without him. In that sense, according to Sageman, the movement has become far more dangerous

As always, the entire episode can be viewed online at your convenience.

[FlamesAllTheWay]

But how could this have happened?! Terrorist matermind Saddam Hussein has been removed from power! There are thousands of troops deployed in Iraq where all the terrorists are! Billions upon billions of dollars are being spent to fight terrorism there!

Now as I venture back to reality I once again find myself baffled by the fact that people actually feel safe with Bush in charge of the war on terror. Nice to know a gigantic portion of resources have been, and will continue to be, devoted to Iraq where the only terrorism going on is that which is a direct result of the American* occupation...



* I'm sorry, the 'Coalition of the Willing'...

[HOZ]

Real victory will take decades not one quick fight.

Abizaid believes that the Long War is only in its early stages. Victory will be hard to measure, he says, because the enemy won't wave a white flag and surrender one day. Success will instead be an incremental process of modernization of the Islamic world, which will gradually find its own accommodation with the global economy and open political systems.

America's enemies in this Long War, he argues, are what he calls "Salafist jihadists." That's his term for the Muslim fundamentalists who use violent tactics to try to re-create what they imagine was the pure and perfect Islamic government of the era of the prophet Muhammad, who is sometimes called the "Salaf." Osama bin Laden is the best known of the Salafist extremists, but Abizaid argues that the movement is much broader and more diffuse than al Qaeda. It's a loose network of like-minded individuals who use 21st century-technology to spread their vision of a 7th-century paradise.

Salafist preachers see themselves as part of a vanguard whose mission is to radicalize other Muslims to overthrow their leaders. Abizaid likens them to Lenin, Trotsky and the other Bolshevik leaders. During a gathering of foreign-policy experts in Washington last October, he posed a haunting question: What would you have done in 1890 if you had known the ruin this Bolshevik vanguard would bring? At another point, he urged the audience to think of today's Islamic world, wracked by waves of violence, as akin to Europe in the revolutionary year of 1848. The Arab world's spasms of anarchy and terror, like those in Europe 150 years ago, are part of a process of social change -- in which an old order is crumbling, and a new one is struggling to be born.


Here is the full article from the Washington Post written by David Ignatius

Achieving Real Victory Could Take Decades

[RougeUnderoos]

I thought this article, from the War on Terrorism section of Canoe, was relevant to the discussion...

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/WarOnTer.../913368-ap.html

[Claeren]

So..... i guess a hybrid car and purchasing lots of gold would be a good bet....

Claeren.

[FlamesAddiction]

I think a lot of people really underestimate bin Laden. His power doesn't come just from his money, leadership, and ability to prompt terrorism. Not to put too much praise onto him, but he is an extremely intelligent person. Don't let the clothes and medievel religious fundamentalism fool you. The guy has an amazing ability to predict what world leaders will do and how they will react. He is an expert at manipulating the powers around him, and that is where he gets his power.

He did it to the Soviet Union, his is still doing it in Russian and other former Soviet Republics, he does it in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, as well; he is doing it to America. He plays them like fiddles and drains their resources by forcing them to fight him and an "organization" that barely exists in any organized manner. Ironically, Iraq under Saddam Hussein was one of the only Arab countries that managed to resist bin Laden's ploys.

[CaramonLS]

Originally posted by FlamesAddiction@Jan 29 2005, 07:52 PM
I think a lot of people really underestimate bin Laden. His power doesn't come just from his money, leadership, and ability to prompt terrorism. Not to put too much praise onto him, but he is an extremely intelligent person. Don't let the clothes and medievel religious fundamentalism fool you. The guy has an amazing ability to predict what world leaders will do and how they will react. He is an expert at manipulating the powers around him, and that is where he gets his power.

He did it to the Soviet Union, his is still doing it in Russian and other former Soviet Republics, he does it in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, as well; he is doing it to America. He plays them like fiddles and drains their resources by forcing them to fight him and an "organization" that barely exists in any organized manner. Ironically, Iraq under Saddam Hussein was one of the only Arab countries that managed to resist bin Laden's ploys.

Excuse me?

So you think he predicted the US would go nuts after 9/11, topple Saddam, invade Iraq and Afganistan and force him into hiding?

I highly doubt he predicted that.

[FlamesAddiction]

I think nearly everyone on the planet knew the U.S. was going to do something major after 9/11. It wasn't exactly a leap of faith.

[RougeUnderoos]

Originally posted by CaramonLS@Jan 29 2005, 02:48 PM
So you think he predicted the US would go nuts after 9/11, topple Saddam, invade Iraq and Afganistan and force him into hiding?

I highly doubt he predicted that.

Saddam was a target for many in the Bush administration even before 9/11 happened. I'm sure it was quite easy for him to predict that they would invade Afghanistan. Everyone else knew they would.

[HOZ]

I don't think so. Evidence certainly points elsewhere.


Osama thought he was mighty safe there in Afghanistan. I doubt very much he thought the USA would come full throttle at him. Especially with unfriendly Iran on one side, Osama's nominal ally Pakistan on the other and Xenophobic Russia to the north. I am guessing he figured the response would be more along the lines of what Clinton did. And that was to fire a few dozen missiles at empty tents in a field.

Instead he went from being a virtual ruler of Theocratic Talaban kingdom to hiding in a cave with most of his leadership in jail or dead in a matter of months.

Gone from creating a new Darsalam to hoping his followers see him on his next video release

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally posted by HOZ@Jan 30 2005, 05:13 AM
I don't think so. Evidence certainly points elsewhere.


Osama thought he was mighty safe there in Afghanistan.

Well he's still alive more than 3 years after 9/11 isn't he? That's pretty safe.

[FlamesAddiction]

Speaking of which, I wonder if people can get a refund on these now :

bottom-middle picture:
http://www.viceland.com/dosanddonts/page2.jpg

[Coolsurfer79]

Originally posted by HOZ@Jan 29 2005, 10:13 PM
I don't think so. Evidence certainly points elsewhere.


Osama thought he was mighty safe there in Afghanistan. I doubt very much he thought the USA would come full throttle at him. Especially with unfriendly Iran on one side, Osama's nominal ally Pakistan on the other and Xenophobic Russia to the north. I am guessing he figured the response would be more along the lines of what Clinton did. And that was to fire a few dozen missiles at empty tents in a field.

Instead he went from being a virtual ruler of Theocratic Talaban kingdom to hiding in a cave with most of his leadership in jail or dead in a matter of months.

Gone from creating a new Darsalam to hoping his followers see him on his next video release

Evidence says that Osama had expected an invasion into Afghanistan. Before Spetember 11th he would not allow his followers to drink cold drinks because he knew he had to prepare them for the eventuality of the hardships they currently face in the rugged terrain the apperantly inhabit. I highly doubt that he expected an equivalent response from the United States as he had experienced after previous attacks. I('m sure he realized the difference between attaking a war vessel in a foreign port and killing thousands of civilians within the United States through a series of coordinated attacks. Also he was not leading Afghanistan in any manner, he was just using it as a base.

[transplant99]

Also he was not leading Afghanistan in any manner, he was just using it as a base.

I call BS on that.

He instituted the whole Taliban regime. They were hand-picked by him because they supported his philosophy....to a fault.

He knows that keeping people oppressed and impoverished is the best way to control them, and that is exactly what the Taliban did.

[Agamemnon]

Originally posted by transplant99@Jan 30 2005, 05:04 PM
He knows that keeping people oppressed and impoverished is the best way to control them, and that is exactly what the Taliban did.

Of course, supposedly there was a religious element to this poverty, as opposed to a purely political one. I doubt he was keeping the people impovershed strictly 'as the best way to be controlled', but rather because Allah told him to do it or some such.