U.S. Elections Prediction Thread - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Iowa_Flames_Fan · 10-17-2008, 08:05 PM

As per the requests in the other thread, I'm starting a new one to avoid
confusion.

Here are the rules of the game:

1. There will be 4 categories, each scored separately--they will be:

a) Correctly predict the popular vote share (we'll round the final results up or down to the nearest whole number). Points will be awarded to anyone who guesses the exact number after rounding.
b) Total Electoral college vote. Points will be awarded to anyone who guesses the exact final tally.
c) swing state results. For this I tried to ignore polls and just work with the states that I know both candidates are still competing in as far as I know. If anyone wants to suggest a modification to this list I'm very open to that.
d) Also, each player may make 1 "Wild Card" pick--that is, a state that isn't on the swing state list that they think might beat the odds and go to one candidate or the other. What this means is you could for instance pick New York State for McCain, and if you're right you'd get 15 points. However, you get nothing for predicting that Obama wins New York, if that makes any sense. For him, you'd have to pick a state like Georgia--a red state that's not on the list of swing states. For this category, you could also say that McCain would take one of the EVs in Maine, or that Obama would take one in Nebraska, since they divide their electoral votes by congressional district.

Here's the template for your answers:

1. (5 points) I predict that the total popular vote share will be: McCain X, Obama Y.

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: McCain X, Obama Y.

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia
2. North Carolina
3. New Hampshire
4. Ohio
5. Indiana
6. Florida
7. Colorado
8. Nevada
9. New Mexico
10. Missouri
11. Wisconsin
12. Minnesota
13. Iowa
14. Pennsylvania
15. West Virginia

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that (state) will go to (candidate) (15 points)

5. Tiebreaker question (only counts if two players are tied for 1st. Predict which state will be subject to a recount or protracted legal battle. Let's say 1 point for a correct answer.

Here are the contestants who've expressed interest. If anyone else wants to join, just let me know.
1. Dis
2. Azure
3. Tranny
4. Weiser Wonder
5. Caged Great
6. Bagor
7. octothorp
8. rubecube
9. HOZ
10. ah123
11. flamey_mcflame
12. Itse--if he has time.
13. pepper24
14. EddyBeers
15. GirlySports
16. mrdeeds
17. nfotiu
And Table 5-- if I'm reading him right, is in.

(This wound up being more complicated than the Canadian election thread, because there's so much more complexity to the system itself. I tried to err on the side of making it easier, but if there's a consensus that it's still too convoluted, we could just do electoral vote and popular vote--let me know what you guys think)

__________________

HOZ · 10-17-2008, 10:27 PM

#1 : Do you mean percentage? Or sheer number of votes?

Iowa_Flames_Fan · 10-17-2008, 11:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HOZ

#1 : Do you mean percentage? Or sheer number of votes?

Hah! No, percentage will be fine. If you guess the actual number of votes, I think you automatically win!

Caged Great · 10-18-2008, 12:16 AM

1. Obama 51.8% McCain 46.5
2. Obama 336 McCain 202
3. Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina - McCain
Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, Indiana, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Pennsylvania - Obama
4. My Wild Card pick is Georgia to Obama
5. Ohio

HOZ · 10-18-2008, 12:52 AM

1. Obama 48.6 to McCain 46.7
2. 538 seats I believe. 284 to Obama. 254 for McCain
3.
Obama - New Hamshire, Indiana, Florida, Missouri, , Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania
McCain - Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin
4. Wisconsin to McCain
5. Ohio

Iowa_Flames_Fan · 10-18-2008, 11:03 AM

Interesting--we have a lot of different answers already.

Here are mine:

1. (5 points) I predict that the total popular vote share will be: McCain 49, Obama 51.

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: McCain 253, Obama 285.

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia--Obama
2. North Carolina--McCain
3. New Hampshire--McCain
4. Ohio--McCain
5. Indiana--McCain
6. Florida--McCain
7. Colorado--Obama
8. Nevada --McCain
9. New Mexico--Obama
10. Missouri--McCain
11. Wisconsin--Obama
12. Minnesota--Obama
13. Iowa--Obama
14. Pennsylvania--Obama
15. West Virginia--McCain

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that North Dakota will go to Obama (15 points)

5. Predict which state will be subject to a recount or protracted legal battle
Indiana

driveway · 10-24-2008, 01:24 PM

1. Obama 53 McCain 45 Other 2

2. Obama 375 McCain 163

3. Obama wins: Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Indiana, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Pennsylvania

McCain wins: North Carolina, West Virgina

4. Wild Card: Georgia goes to Obama

5. Colorado

the_only_turek_fan · 10-27-2008, 08:00 AM

1. (5 points) I predict that the total popular vote share will be: McCain 45, Obama 55.

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: McCain 174, Obama 364.

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia--Obama
2. North Carolina--Obama
3. New Hampshire--Obama
4. Ohio--Obama
5. Indiana--McCain
6. Florida--Obama
7. Colorado--Obama
8. Nevada --Obama
9. New Mexico--Obama
10. Missouri--McCain
11. Wisconsin--Obama
12. Minnesota--Obama
13. Iowa--Obama
14. Pennsylvania--Obama
15. West Virginia--McCain

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that Montana could go to Obama (15 points)

5. Predict which state will be subject to a recount or protracted legal battle
Ohio

nfotiu · 10-27-2008, 08:20 AM

1. Obama 50 McCain 49 Other 1

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: McCain 272, Obama 266.

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia--McCain
2. North Carolina--McCain
3. New Hampshire--Obama
4. Ohio--McCain
5. Indiana--McCain
6. Florida--McCain
7. Colorado--Obama
8. Nevada --McCain
9. New Mexico--Obama
10. Missouri--McCain
11. Wisconsin--Obama
12. Minnesota--Obama
13. Iowa--McCain
14. Pennsylvania--Obama
15. West Virginia--McCain

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that McCain takes one of the EVs in Maine

5. Predict which state will be subject to a recount or protracted legal battle
Ohio

Iowa_Flames_Fan · 10-27-2008, 10:31 AM

I was wondering if anyone was going to pick McCain to win! I like that... makes it interesting!

Kjesse · 10-27-2008, 11:11 AM

1. Obama 53 McCain 45 Other 2
2. Obama 378 McCain 160
3. All Obama except West Virginia, Which goes McCain
4. Wildcard Pick - Montana goes Obama
5. Protracted Legal Battle - Colorado, voter registration cancellations

mykalberta · 10-27-2008, 11:22 AM

1. McCain 45% Obama 54% Other 1%

2. I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: McCain 231, Obama 307

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia - Obama
2. North Carolina - McCain
3. New Hampshire - Obama
4. Ohio - McCain
5. Indiana - McCain
6. Florida - Obama
7. Colorado - McCain
8. Nevada - McCain
9. New Mexico - Obama
10. Missouri - McCain
11. Wisconsin - Obama
12. Minnesota - Obama
13. Iowa - Obama
14. Pennsylvania - Obama
15. West Virginia - McCain

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that Montana will go to Obama (15 points)

5. Florida

My name is MYK, and I apporve this post.

EDIT: Here is my first try at the FffffUuuuu thread. It sums up my feeling in the last while.

Azure · 10-27-2008, 12:30 PM

I literally had the 'exact' same results as nfotiu....but since he put them down first, he can stay in the spotlight.

EddyBeers · 10-27-2008, 01:41 PM

1. Obama 54 McCain 45 Other 1

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: Obama 379 McCain 159

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia--Obama
2. North Carolina--Obama
3. New Hampshire--Obama
4. Ohio--Obama
5. Indiana--Obama
6. Florida--Obama
7. Colorado--Obama
8. Nevada --Obama
9. New Mexico--Obama
10. Missouri--McCain
11. Wisconsin--Obama
12. Minnesota--Obama
13. Iowa--Obama
14. Pennsylvania--Obama
15. West Virginia--McCain

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that Obama takes Georgia

5. Predict which state will be subject to a recount or protracted legal battle
Well I think this thing is going to be over before it reaches this state, but I say Colorado based on a legal battle over voter registration

rubecube · 10-27-2008, 02:08 PM

1. Obama 51% McCain 47%

2. Obama: 351 McCain: 187

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia - Obama
2. North Carolina - Obama
3. New Hampshire - Obama
4. Ohio - Obama
5. Indiana - Obama
6. Florida - McCain
7. Colorado - Obama
8. Nevada - Obama
9. New Mexico - Obama
10. Missouri - Obama
11. Wisconsin - Obama
12. Minnesota - Obama
13. Iowa - Obama
14. Pennsylvania - Obama
15. West Virginia - McCain

4. Montana to Obama

5. Ohio

octothorp · 10-27-2008, 02:34 PM

After my victory in the Canadian Election Prediction Thread, I'm looking to go 2-for-2 here.

1. (5 points) I predict that the total popular vote share will be: McCain 47, Obama 52.

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: McCain 189, Obama 349.

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia - Obama
2. North Carolina - McCain
3. New Hampshire - Obama
4. Ohio - Obama
5. Indiana - McCain
6. Florida - Obama
7. Colorado - Obama
8. Nevada - Obama
9. New Mexico - Obama
10. Missouri - Obama
11. Wisconsin - Obama
12. Minnesota - Obama
13. Iowa - Obama
14. Pennsylvania - Obama
15. West Virginia - McCain

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that North Dakota will go to Obama (15 points)

5. Nevada

Iowa_Flames_Fan · 10-29-2008, 09:38 PM

Thought I should bump this--we still need picks from a lot of you! It's cheating if you wait until 10:30 Monday night!

Displaced Flames fan · 10-29-2008, 10:34 PM

I see I've talked about my birth state a little too much. I blame Moe too.

mykalberta · 11-01-2008, 03:29 PM

bump

ah123 · 11-01-2008, 04:51 PM

1. (5 points) I predict that the total popular vote share will be: 46, Obama 51, Other 3

2. (5 points) I predict that the total electoral college vote will be: McCain 273, Obama 265.

3. Here are my "swing state" predictions (1 point each):
1. Virginia - McCain
2. North Carolina - McCain
3. New Hampshire - McCain
4. Ohio - McCain
5. Indiana - McCain
6. Florida - McCain
7. Colorado - McCain
8. Nevada - Obama
9. New Mexico - Obama
10. Missouri - McCain
11. Wisconsin - Obama
12. Minnesota - McCain
13. Iowa - Obama
14. Pennsylvania - Obama
15. West Virginia - McCain

4. My "Wild Card" pick is that North Dakota will go to McCain (15 points)

5. Florida