La Palma

[Shawnski]

While searching through the tragic stories of the Indian Ocean disaster, I came across some articles that discuss the likelihood of a volcano in the Canary Islands that will at some time drop a massive chuck of its mountainside into the Atlantic. Predictions are that the subsequent tsunami would devastate the North American Eastern seaboard, reaching as far north as Iceland (possibly even Britain) and as far south as Brazil. The story broke a few years ago, but seems a bit more newsworthy considering recent events.

Scary stuff, but a good read.

In 1949 the southern volcano on the island erupted. During the eruption an enormous crack appeared across one side of the volcano, as the western half slipped a few metres towards the Atlantic before stopping in its tracks. Although the volcano presents no danger while it is quiescent, scientists believe the western flank will give way completely during some future eruption on the summit of the volcano. In other words, any time in the next few thousand years a huge section of southern La Palma, weighing 500 thousand million tonnes, will fall into the Atlantic ocean.

BBC article

The real carnage will be on the western side of the Atlantic, from
Newfoundland all the way down the east coast of Canada and the United
States to Cuba, Hispaniola, the Lesser Antilles and north-eastern Brazil.
With a clear run across the Atlantic, the wall of water will still be
between 60 and 150 feet (20 and 50 metres) high when it hits the eastern
seaboard of North America, and it will keep coming for ten to fifteen
minutes.

Worst hit will be harbours and estuaries that funnel the waves
inland: goodbye Halifax, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and
Washington, DC. Miami and Havana go under almost entirely, as do low-lying
islands like the Bahamas and Barbados. Likely death toll, if there is no
mass evacuation beforehand? A hundred million people, give or take fifty
million.

Gwynne Dyer - Unstoppable "Gee-gee's"

A study by Steven N. Ward, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Santa Cruz, California and Simon Day, Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre, Department of Geological Sciences, University College, London, United Kingdom were the folks that tabled this study.

The best geological evidence that we have paints a Cumbre Vieja collapse sending down a slide block 15-20 km wide and 15-25 km long....Using a geologically reasonable estimate of landslide motion, we model tsunami waves produced by such a collapse. Waves generated by the run-out of a 500 km3 (150 km3) slide block at 100 m/s could transit the entire Atlantic Basin and arrive on the coasts of the Americas with 10–25 m (3–8 m) height.

Tsunami model

A pic of the volcano...



And a pic of the likely tsunami path....


Another pic of possible path and impacts...

[Cowperson]

I'm glad I live at 4,500 feet, about 900 feet above Calgary.

When the giant comet hit the coast off the Yucatan, I wonder how high the Tsumani was and how far it went?

I'm sure some of you clever fellows can find out.

Cowperson

[Shawnski]

Not sure what impact (no pun intended) that the comet in the Yucatan had on a tsunami, Cow.

But here is another very interesting article on the La Palma volcano (Cumbre Vieja). It is a transcript of a story with the scientist that wrote the paper on La Palma, Dr. Simon Day and others.

La Palma is going to collapse into the North Atlantic. It’s not a question of if, it’s just a question of when.

Lengthy read, but wow, what a read.

Another BBC link

The more I read about this, the more I am starting to think that some nutcase like Osama bin Laden might try to trigger this event with a nuke.

From the "Day After Tomorrow"..... and likely the view if this event occurred....

[Cowperson]

Type in "Comet Yucatan tsunami" into Google and you get lots of links.

As an example, evidence in Arkansas of giant bolders being transported by tsunami from the Yucatan blast site 400 miles away.

http://www.science-frontiers.com/sf121/sf121p10.htm

For you eggheads, here is a wonderfully complicated study on the effects of a comet hitting the earth . . . . but check out the tsunami section where the prediction of "several mile high waves that could travel several hundred miles inland. . . . . " Still, there are some doubters as the author notes.

http://personals.galaxyinternet.net/tunga/TA.pdf

Cowperson

[Shawnski]

Well Cow, if that second link is correct, the Yucatan comet, estimated at 10 KM in diameter, would have created a wave of 1.1 km high at 1 km from point of impact.

Get your surfboard out.

[Vulcan]

According to that BBC article the funneling effect would be a disaster for ports along the eastern seaboard. If such a wave hit the west coast would it not be funneled by the Straight of Juan de Fuca to Vancouver. I'm glad I live north and about 100' above shore.

[browna]

Well, 6 hrs notice seems like a long time if that ever happens...but....can NYC evacuate in 6hr? NFLD even? Panic, fear, and probably a bunch of people who just stay and act irrationaly, knowing they have 6 hours to live.

[Hot_Sauce]

The idea of terrorists prompting a slide in the Canaries is down right terrifying but maybe not - what if their efforts to release the slab breaks it into many much smaller pieces? Like a handful of gravel dropped in a pond, the waves would be significantly smaller? Given all this wouldn't it be prudent for the Brits and Yanks to mine the be-jesus out of the thing and blast it into gravel? Whatever - sure glad to be stationed in near disaster free Alberta.

[Table 5]

Originally posted by Shawnski@Dec 31 2004, 06:33 PM

why can't people/mother nature just leave new york alone?

[Cowperson]

Originally posted by Table 5+Jan 2 2005, 06:06 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Table 5 @ Jan 2 2005, 06:06 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Shawnski@Dec 31 2004, 06:33 PM

why can't people/mother nature just leave new york alone? [/b][/quote]
At least its taking down the UN building.

Cowperson

[Table 5]

Originally posted by Cowperson@Jan 2 2005, 11:26 AM
At least its taking down the UN building.

i love the UN building. my bus drives by it every day, and its quite beautiful up close....

[Faid1]

So why has no James Bond villain loaded the mountain with dynamite yet?

[4X4]

Thats the first thing I thought of when I heard about this. Makes you wonder if Osama is crafting this devious plot as we speak. I'm with whoever said they were glad to be in disaster-free Alberta. Round here, we worry about things like cold temperatures, wether to put Bullseye or HP on our t-bones, and the eternal question of why we pay so much for our gas.

If I was omnipotent, I'd erupt that volcano, watch the show, then rewind time. You must admit it's be cool to watch.

[Dynamic]

I remember watching a show on this a couple years back.......very interesting at the time but takes on a whole new meaning now.

[Cowperson]

Originally posted by Table 5+Jan 2 2005, 07:45 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Table 5 @ Jan 2 2005, 07:45 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Cowperson@Jan 2 2005, 11:26 AM
At least its taking down the UN building.

i love the UN building. my bus drives by it every day, and its quite beautiful up close.... [/b][/quote]
Yes, its a lovely building.

Loved Cary Grant within its hallowed walls early in "North By Northwest."

Cowperson