Political Junkies: Predictions for U.S. Mid-Terms?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

It being a Canadian board, I realize not everyone will be interested: however, being somewhat of a political junkie, I thought it would be fun if those of us living in the U.S. (and the odd real American like Dis) got out our prognosticating hats to see if we can't guess how things will shake out before the pundits get their bets in.

Currently, the Republicans have the majority in both houses of Congress. In the House of Representatives, the Democrats need a pickup of 15 seats to assume the majority. In the Senate, they'll need 6. It's virtually certain that they'll make some gains--but how well will they do? A "wave" like some are predicting, or merely a ripple?

I'm guessing we'll see the Democrats pick up 20-25 seats in Congress and 5 in the Senate, leaving the Senate in a 50/50 tie. That would probably be more of a ripple than a wave--it's possible they could pick up 40 in the House, though more than 7 in the Senate is probably impossible.

[Vulcan]

From watching the news it seems the Democrats will make some strong gains but if they don't, a lot of people will be shaking their heads.

Far from scientific, but my sister was just down in Seattle where she lived for 20 years and she said her friends[liberal] seemed confused. Like how could all this crap happen again. I just hope enough Democrats get out and vote when the whole voting system is in doubt.

OK, I'll say the Democrats make some gains but the Republicans stay in power in both houses. Hope I'm wrong but after Bush got in again, I don't have much faith in the American voters, also the Democrats aren't exactly setting the world on fire. Thier platform seems to be anti Bush but that's not enough.

[Red Mile Style]

I have been trying my hardest not to pay attention to the mid-term elections. The results of the 2004 election put me into a weird funk where I lost faith in democracy and all Americans. I'll never forget that day... my friend and I were so distrought we skipped school the next day to have a wake n'bake while watching The Big Lebowski, Old School and Pulp Fiction.

I would be very surprised if the Republicans gain... but then again I said that in 2004. So with that said, go Nader!

[Flash Walken]

I predict there to be lots of fraud allegations, as well as various other polling station problems. I expect Lou Dobbs to pounce on it like me on a smarty.

I've also recently read that the GOP is putting lots of money into 30 races they believe are tight, 27 of which are efforts to save the incumbents seat, rather than trying to go on the offensive against democratic seats. I think there is going to be a dramatic shift in both houses. I don't think it'll be the tidal wave some believe it will be, but it will be significant, in key states like Ohio.

[transplant99]

If you like polls to suggest who may do what...here is a link for all the races.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/latestpolls/

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by transplant99

If you like polls to suggest who may do what...here is a link for all the races.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/latestpolls/

That's one I haven't seen--seems to provide a decent summary of what's out there. I've been looking at Chris Scilizza's blog on Washington Post's website, and at the "election scorecard" on slate.com, which is pretty interesting, but uses averages of different polls--somewhat problematic given the different methodologies that are in use.

Polls are more art than science; a lot of pollsters actually don't use their raw numbers, but figure they get a more accurrate tally if they correct for voter party affiliation. What that means is that if 62% of voters in 2004 were Republicans, they'll actually use 62% Republicans in their final sample, regardless of what the raw data are. A weird practice, IMO--but there you have it.

What it means is that voter turnout is a huge X-factor. Which party gets their base out more is going to determine whether this turns into a 40-seat wave or a 10-seat ripple. Historically, Democrats have been bad at this for the last few election cycles. Hopefully (if you're rooting for them) they've figured it out.

One point of interest: conventional polling methodology says that in close races where the incumbent polls lower than 50% in the final weekend, the incumbent is in trouble, because late deciders tend to break for the challenger. If that's so, look for Democratic pickups in Montana and Virginia. I also think they'll eke one out in Missouri (my neighbourinos to the South!)--so it will come down to winning one of Tennessee or Arizona, if my math is right--but both of those are long shots. Corker (R) is polling higher than 50% in Tennessee, and though the GOP candidate is polling lower than 50 in Arizona, he does have about a 7-point lead, I think.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Based on the buzz around the water cooler from the Hussein judgement, I'll go out on a limb and predict that the Republicans have a very strong showing at the polls and hold on to many seats thought to be in danger. The status quo will remain. The "October Surprise" came in early November.

[Flashpoint]

I predict the Repubs keep both houses. They are better at getting out the vote, particularly amongst the Jesus Freaks.

I heard an interview on NPR from a republican rally this morning, and a lady was saying she was going to vote republican because "if you read the fine print on stem cell research, it is actually just human cloning".

You just can't fight that sort of ignorance with rational argument. The bible thumpers are listening to the voice from the pew going "VOTE VOTE VOTE" while the democrat base is out trying to find a now job since their last one was outsourced to China.

I lost all faith in America in 2004. Great country, but Rove has rallied the WalMart fools to his banner, and they are growing in number.


(John Kerry's botched joke about Bush didn't help either)

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

One point of interest: conventional polling methodology says that in close races where the incumbent polls lower than 50% in the final weekend, the incumbent is in trouble, because late deciders tend to break for the challenger. If that's so, look for Democratic pickups in Montana and Virginia. I also think they'll eke one out in Missouri (my neighbourinos to the South!)--so it will come down to winning one of Tennessee or Arizona, if my math is right--but both of those are long shots. Corker (R) is polling higher than 50% in Tennessee, and though the GOP candidate is polling lower than 50 in Arizona, he does have about a 7-point lead, I think.

There's a realistic shot for a Democrat pickup in Tennessee, I think. There was one poll on Saturday that had Ford with a six point lead, but even if you toss out that one, Corker's lead has gone from 10 to 8 to 4 to 3 in the last four polls by major polling agencies--the lead is now within the margin of error.

[badnarik]

no one is going to vote except the republicans, some of the intellectual democrats, and a couple cats like me who have strong beliefs in other partys. i don't see much changing. maybe a small gain for the democrats, but i would be surprised if it's more than that. i could be wrong, but does it really matter anyway? it's just a matter of how our money is wasted and which special interest groups win the great auction.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by octothorp

There's a realistic shot for a Democrat pickup in Tennessee, I think. There was one poll on Saturday that had Ford with a six point lead, but even if you toss out that one, Corker's lead has gone from 10 to 8 to 4 to 3 in the last four polls by major polling agencies--the lead is now within the margin of error.

Well, it depends a little on turnout, I guess. What makes me hesitate is that Corker polled over 50% in two polls in a row (can't remember which ones) and had a 12 point lead in one of them. Tennessee has also never sent an African-American to the Senate, so one wonders if there's a certain margin Ford needs going into election day.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Lanny_MacDonald

Based on the buzz around the water cooler from the Hussein judgement, I'll go out on a limb and predict that the Republicans have a very strong showing at the polls and hold on to many seats thought to be in danger. The status quo will remain. The "October Surprise" came in early November.

Maybe. Though it may in fact have come too late to do very much good for the GOP. I hope so, at any rate. Does it trump the other "October Surprise" in which October was the deadliest month for U.S. troops in Iraq all year? I dunno.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Maybe. Though it may in fact have come too late to do very much good for the GOP. I hope so, at any rate. Does it trump the other "October Surprise" in which October was the deadliest month for U.S. troops in Iraq all year? I dunno.

Sorry, the "deadliest month" was nothing compared to "Hussein to hang". The deadliest month was barely a blip on radar IMO. People didn't even talk about it. Hussein being hung is spectacular and has made all the news and radio shows... endlessly!!! The guys on one of the local drive-time shows were lobbying for the execution to be carried prime time LIVE on a major network, or at worst pay-per-view, as it would show that going into Iraq was the right thing and worth the investment in lives and money. And these are the guys that are critical of the government!!! I think its done. Americans rally around the flag and the Republicans have wrapped themselves in it. Its kind of embarassing how easily duped the average person on the street is.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Lanny_MacDonald

Sorry, the "deadliest month" was nothing compared to "Hussein to hang". The deadliest month was barely a blip on radar IMO. People didn't even talk about it. Hussein being hung is spectacular and has made all the news and radio shows... endlessly!!! The guys on one of the local drive-time shows were lobbying for the execution to be carried prime time LIVE on a major network, or at worst pay-per-view, as it would show that going into Iraq was the right thing and worth the investment in lives and money. And these are the guys that are critical of the government!!! I think its done. Americans rally around the flag and the Republicans have wrapped themselves in it. Its kind of embarassing how easily duped the average person on the street is.

Well, all I can say is that I hope you're wrong. But it is true that people down here seem to choose candidates for all the wrong reasons sometimes. Or sometimes that they stay home on election day in alarming numbers.

For some interesting prognostications, here's a link to the U. of Virginia's Center for Politics. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...=LJS2006110601

Interestingly, they predict a Democratic takeover in both houses, albeit narrowly in the Senate.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

^^^^ We can only hope.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Lanny_MacDonald

Sorry, the "deadliest month" was nothing compared to "Hussein to hang". The deadliest month was barely a blip on radar IMO. People didn't even talk about it. Hussein being hung is spectacular and has made all the news and radio shows... endlessly!!! The guys on one of the local drive-time shows were lobbying for the execution to be carried prime time LIVE on a major network, or at worst pay-per-view, as it would show that going into Iraq was the right thing and worth the investment in lives and money. And these are the guys that are critical of the government!!! I think its done. Americans rally around the flag and the Republicans have wrapped themselves in it. Its kind of embarassing how easily duped the average person on the street is.

No kidding. Kerry makes 'one' remark, and it becomes bigger news then what is happening in Iraq.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by Azure

No kidding. Kerry makes 'one' remark, and it becomes bigger news then what is happening in Iraq.

That left me shaking my head. The number of times Bush has murdered the english language and parts of his speeches, and Kerry gets hammered for blowing an attempt at a joke. How's that old adage go again? Fool me once... shame on you. Fool me twice... you can't get fooled again!?!?!

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Lanny_MacDonald

That left me shaking my head. The number of times Bush has murdered the english language and parts of his speeches, and Kerry gets hammered for blowing an attempt at a joke. How's that old adage go again? Fool me once... shame on you. Fool me twice... you can't get fooled again!?!?!

I guess my bias will show here a little bit... but I've noticed that the GOP are masters of "changing the subject" during elections. It's not about deaths in Iraq, it's about Kerry blundering his speech. It's not about WMD, it's about Kerry on a windsurfer. From Howard Dean's shreik all the way back to Monica Lewinsky's dress, the Republicans have managed to gain traction with completely unimportant issue. It's time people stopped falling for it, but I don't see that happening any time soon.

[JohnnyFlame]

Frankly looking at it from a purely who really gives a crap bias I've haven't seen anything that would make me change my vote if I was a Republican.

Scandals -- who cares --there are always scandals and amongst both party's

IRAQ -- whining about why it started is to me just lame -- how do you move forward? Heard zip from the Dem's there.

Economy -- rolling along and future looks good as well

Dem's look like the same shrill, whiny, nothing different, divided group they have always seemed to be --the body bags would have been a factor for sure going in but having seen what the Dem's have to offer which is little more than whine about the Rep's I'd vote for them again!!!

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by JohnnyFlame

Frankly looking at it from a purely who really gives a crap bias I've haven't seen anything that would make me change my vote if I was a Republican.

Scandals -- who cares --there are always scandals and amongst both party's

IRAQ -- whining about why it started is to me just lame -- how do you move forward? Heard zip from the Dem's there.

Economy -- rolling along and future looks good as well

Dem's look like the same shrill, whiny, nothing different, divided group they have always seemed to be --the body bags would have been a factor for sure going in but having seen what the Dem's have to offer which is little more than whine about the Rep's I'd vote for them again!!!

You'd actually vote for a party that blundered and lied it's way into a major war and led the world into a worse situation or are you just saying that the average voter would?