[Game Takes] Habs 2 Flames 1 (OT)

[Bingo]

Habs 2 Flames 1 (OT)

- Flames tie it up in the third
- Wolf solid all night
- Montreal controls the overtime and finds the winner

[Calgary4LIfe]

At this rate, to have proper stats, we need to handicap the Flames at 1.5 vs 1 when it comes to XGF. I am sure the stats will start lining up just fine after that!


In all seriousness, it is 2 straight games now that they have taken a big step forward in on-ice play, but lost. Moral victories are practically meaningless, but at least they got a point this time, and moved out of last place.


Curious how they show in their next game. They have been looking better.

[Roko]

Parekh on pp1 now cowards

[NegativeSpace]

Thank you for the post. Very interesting read. It’s much needed with the toxicity of some of the other threads. Is this a systems thing or is it a lack of execution? I struggle to think that Huska is telling them to not go towards the middle of the ice but they just seem to all be clenching the sticks extra tightly. Moneypuck has goals for above expected as -6.00 which seems high even for a team without many finishers. Seems like one of those instances in hockey where a whole team goes cold at once, which didn’t happen much last year.

[Finger Cookin]

With the number of saves Wolf made on blue chip scoring chances, I'm having a hard time reconciling 2 goals against vs 2.2 expected goals against. I feel like Wolf robbed the Habs of at least 2-3 goals.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

With the number of saves Wolf made on blue chip scoring chances, I'm having a hard time reconciling 2 goals against vs 2.2 expected goals against. I feel like Wolf robbed the Habs of at least 2-3 goals.

Every blue chip chance a) isn't measured for specific level of danger (who is shooting it et) and b) isn't a 100% sure goal.

Montreal had 3 high danger chances in the first period but that (along with the addition of medium and low danger attempts) only amounted to 0.72 in total expected goals.

If we guess at the value of the three high danger chances (and they are exactly equal, which they're not) then it's probably somethin like 0.18 + 0.18 + 0.18 + .05 +0.05 + .02 +.02 +.02 +.02 to get to 0.72 for the period (or 2.20 for the game)

[Rhett44]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

With the number of saves Wolf made on blue chip scoring chances, I'm having a hard time reconciling 2 goals against vs 2.2 expected goals against. I feel like Wolf robbed the Habs of at least 2-3 goals.

Yes, this shows exactly why advanced stats do not matter. If people watch the game, the Habs expected goals was probably closer to 4 or 5 based on the quality of chances we gave up.

Expected goals is an extremely flawed stat.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

Yes, this shows exactly why advanced stats do not matter. If people watch the game, the Habs expected goals was probably closer to 4 or 5 based on the quality of chances we gave up.

Expected goals is an extremely flawed stat.

Did you even read my response above?

Not sure raging against something you don't understand is the way to go to be honest.

Expected goals aren't black magic.

The non advanced stat of shots on goal was also on Calgary's side and was indicative of chances and shot attempts.

The heat map shows more Calgary shots in dangerous areas than Montreal had.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

At this rate, to have proper stats, we need to handicap the Flames at 1.5 vs 1 when it comes to XGF. I am sure the stats will start lining up just fine after that!


In all seriousness, it is 2 straight games now that they have taken a big step forward in on-ice play, but lost. Moral victories are practically meaningless, but at least they got a point this time, and moved out of last place.


Curious how they show in their next game. They have been looking better.

Like Maher used to say all the time, you can tell when a team's about to leave a slump because they lose a couple games they should have won. And the reverse is the case as well.

[Finger Cookin]

I'm definitely not interested in an argument about the merits of expected goals as a stat, I'm just trying to understand it better.

I count 11 shots from Montreal between the faceoff dots and closer -- I think those alone would add up to more expected goals than 2.2. Maybe the definition of high danger or heat map or what have you varies from place to place? And then there are still 17 more shots from the outside that area (1 of which went in), surely they would add to the expected goals total as well?

Maybe I'm just having trouble with the word "expected" in the name -- as I would count a number of saves Wolf made as beyond expectations.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

I'm definitely not interested in an argument about the merits of expected goals as a stat, I'm just trying to understand it better.

I count 11 shots from Montreal between the faceoff dots and closer -- I think those alone would add up to more expected goals than 2.2. Maybe the definition of high danger or heat map or what have you varies from place to place? And then there are still 17 more shots from the outside that area (1 of which went in), surely they would add to the expected goals total as well?

Maybe I'm just having trouble with the word "expected" in the name -- as I would count a number of saves Wolf made as beyond expectations.

A slot shot without a variable creating it is just a "scoring chance" and not a "high danger shot attempt"

Variables include rebounds, tips or a pass from outside the plate into the plate.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Rhett44

Yes, this shows exactly why advanced stats do not matter. If people watch the game, the Habs expected goals was probably closer to 4 or 5 based on the quality of chances we gave up.

Expected goals is an extremely flawed stat.

Or shows how flawed the eye test is.

A goalie lets in a gaol on a break away and people you can't blame the goalie.

Yet breakaways are stopped about 2/3rds of the time.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Or shows how flawed the eye test is.

A goalie lets in a gaol on a break away and people you can't blame the goalie.

Yet breakaways are stopped about 2/3rds of the time.

That’s not the point. Shot placement matters!

There is absolutely no stat that adjusts probability based on what direction the pick goes off of the player’s stick

Into the goalie’s crest has the same probability in models as a bar down top corner snipe, or a shot 14” off the ice blocker side inside the post

The eye test is way better at assessing an individual shot than any model

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Or shows how flawed the eye test is.

A goalie lets in a gaol on a break away and people you can't blame the goalie.

Yet breakaways are stopped about 2/3rds of the time.

Arguably a breakaway is easier than some other chances, because it's one on one. A pass across to an open guy back door, a well played two on one that make the goalie move when he's trying to guess the play, could be harder.

[Kipper_3434]

Xgoals is my least favourite stat for how overused and impractical it is. The new +/-

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Arguably a breakaway is easier than some other chances, because it's one on one. A pass across to an open guy back door, a well played two on one that make the goalie move when he's trying to guess the play, could be harder.

Yeah on a breakaway, the shooter has time and space. They have a lot more control. They take good shots, goalies save some, and they still take crappy shots. The xGF for a breakaway is probably around .35

And a shot which is a cross crease back door pass that a guy scores on has the same xGF as one that he stuffs into the goalie’s pad

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Kipper_3434

Xgoals is my least favourite stat for how overused and impractical it is. The new +/-

It is fine for what it is, just most people misuse it

I don’t see the problem with +/- for what it is though. You win games by out scoring the opponent. When Bedard has teammates that are even and he is -45, it says something about his 2 way game. This stat actually matters